If Obama Wins Any One of These States: VA, OH, NC, or FLA, Then...

[Yavin4]

he basically wins the presidency, correct?

Conversely, Romney could win all 4, and still not win the presidency, correct?

[WI_DEM]

1. well, he actually can win without any of those states:

If he wins traditionally blue states plus IA, NH and western states like CO, NM & NV--he will have 272 electoral votes.

Obama has several paths to 270--Romney doesn't.

[JenniferJuniper]

4. Nate Silver's most recent projections

NH - 72.0% chance of an Obama win.
IA - 65.6% chance of an Obama win.
CO - 63.5% chance of an Obama win.
NV - 78.3% chance of an Obama win.
NM - 91.3 % chance of an Obama win.

[richmwill]

2. I play around on the "270towin.com" site, and- you are overall correct.

Romney could win all 4 and still not win, however at that point it all comes down to what NH, WI, IA, CO, and NV do. Romney gets OH, VA, FL, and NC and any of those states listed in the first part of this post, he wins. If Obama wins any of the 4 you listed, then it's obviously very good for his chances but he still needs some help from the first group. Most of those states lean Dem though.

[FSogol]

3. Make it so, DU.

[msongs]

5. election may well be decided by unprovable electronic vote machine rigging nt

[cheezmaka]

6. there are many paths to 270 for Obama

but if Obama wins FL and OH he will have a SOLID win. These two states will give him 270 even if the "rest" of the BATTLEGROUND states were RED. (go to LA times: Predict a winner "Battleground States&quot

[ailsagirl]

7. Yes--that's what I came up with

[hrmjustin]

8. The fact is he has a much better shot at winning 270 in a close race.

but if the trends go more towards ne direction then the states will follow.

[JoePhilly]

9. Obama has way more paths to 270 than Romney has.

The media does not want to talk about it ... it ruins their "its neck and neck" meme.

[fujiyama]

10. Assuming Obama gets all Gore state (excluding FL)

Last edited Wed Aug 8, 2012, 01:29 AM - Edit history (1)

he will need to take NV, NH, and CO. Recent polls show him leading in all three...Granted, IA was very close in '00 (and Kerry actually lost it by a small margin)...but does anyone see a Gore or Kerry state flipping at this point?

I hadn't realized how truly awful and difficult it is for Romney until playing around with the maps...Unless there is a truly disastrous turnout on the part of Democrats, Romney needs to run the map. It makes it worse for him that Obama has led most polls in the other large swing states (with the exception of NC and FL being consistently close)...

Still, I think the republicans are motivated by hate. They really despise Obama. So there are still some real challenges.

[Dustin DeWinde]

11. no republican has EVER

won the Presidency without winnig Ohio. Obama leads Romney by six points in Ohio. Just saying....

[grantcart]

12. welcome to DU and you are correct

If Romney doesn't take Ohio then it is almost impossible to see how he makes it.

[Dustin DeWinde]

13. thanx

[TrogL]

14. That assumes his supporters actually get to vote

Don't most of those states have ID laws now?