2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCBS Nat'l Poll (Sans Biden) Clinton 56% Sanders 32% /With Biden-Clinton 46% Sanders 27% Biden 16%
Just days before the first Democratic candidate debate, Hillary Clinton is ahead of Bernie Sanders by 19 points in the Democratic race for the nomination nationally. Forty-six percent would vote for her. Her lead is similar to last month, but has narrowed since August. Potential candidate Vice President Joe Biden comes in third, with 16 percent, while the other candidates trail far behind.
2016 Democratic nomination for president
If Biden decides not to enter the race, Clinton's lead over Sanders widens. She would have 56 percent support, compared to 32 percent for Sanders.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-still-leads-democratic-race/
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)No surprise.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Last edited Sun Oct 11, 2015, 03:48 PM - Edit history (2)
With the debates coming, now he can't announce for announce for another week lest he steal attention from the debates which will alienate everybody.
on edit-added comma after 'coming' for clarity.
bvf
(6,604 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)eom
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)I don't think it's quite a stutter, but it is a bit confusing.
Maybe I just need a hug. LOL
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)I can see why you would be in desperate need of a and that's why I am giving you a big internet
bvf
(6,604 posts)Even after an edit.
Make that two edits.
Just admit it. You're lost.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)He obviously isn't announcing this week and overshadowing the debate he declined to participate in.
Soon enough it will be October 18th, Joe Biden will still not have announced, and this conversation will be moot.
George II
(67,782 posts)....that they'll announce it in X number of days/hours.
I guess that's the announce that he'll announce.
enid602
(8,670 posts)He's waiting to see how Hill fairs. He was 'considering' a run to make sure there was a viable dem nominee given the severity of Hill's lambasting in the media and on the Hill.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Good numbers for Hillary.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)They've been high-fiving each other acting like Bernie has already wrapped up the nomination and the general election.
Meanwhile the polls say something else entirely, but they think the polls are skewed.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)....Wait till after the debate. All Americans will swoon at the feet of Bernie and realize what a bunch of idiots we all are.
riversedge
(70,441 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html?_r=1
Now that Bernie has decided to run, the entire concept is no longer any good!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251662866#post29
Another Bernie Revolution! He is unlike any candidate ever before, so this election is entirely different and all polls taken are inaccurate!
Lucky Luciano
(11,267 posts)He clearly has done a lot better than that.
I can't blame a Bernie supporter for their enthusiasm.
The Hillary supporters do seem arrogant and complacent though.
George II
(67,782 posts)....not every state has even had a formal poll yet.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Bobbie Jo
(14,341 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)Bobbie Jo
(14,341 posts)I voted 16 times!!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Thank you in advance.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)Your Welcomed .
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Are there any polls that meet your benchmark for objectivity?
Thank you in advance.
kenn3d
(486 posts)Customized 1yr range (normal "Moderate" smoothing) with all Internet/IVR/AutoPhone polls removed and including Live Phone Polls only from the following MSM pollsters:
NBC/WSJ FOX Bloomberg CBS/Times ABC/Post Monmouth CBS McClatchy/Marist... (All rated A or B by 538.com). Which removes a lot of noise imo.
Clinton 42.9
Sanders 32.8
Spread 10.1
Note: The Oct 11th CBS poll which is the subject of this OP has not yet been aggregated into HuffPollster, and is therefore not included in the above chart. But the data from this latest CBS poll is unchanged since the previous CBS poll released 9/15. (C47/S27/B15)
FWIW (which isn't much really)
Anything can happen.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)kenn3d
(486 posts)Indeed, CBS is MSM... but
The current CBS poll (10/11) is not yet included in the HuffPollster aggregate charts.
The 42.9% data point is an average computed from all the composite MSM poll data over the prior 12 months.
The 56% data point is from the latest CBS Poll based on Biden NOT being included in the polling.
The chart posted downstream (http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251665427#post15) compares CBS poll data from 8/3 and 9/15, NOT the current CBS poll released today Sun Oct 11th.
I am a Sanders supporter, and I would agree that MSM coverage has an obvious bias against Bernie both in tone and time allotted to him. But I am not convinced that MSM polling is biased beyond its using the accepted method of relying on repeat calling of known responsive landline owners.
It is too early for these national polls to predict anything very meaningful about what may happen 5 or more months from now. If you're interested in following the minutiae of weekly fluctuations in the national polls, just watch the composite trend graphs and spreads. Don't be misled into thinking that any one poll (no matter how new or how poorly or excellently conducted) represents the state of the race at any point in time. The composite averages of many many many national polls can only gradually describe the contest in a very broadly averaged and generalized way that has little or nothing to do with the actual probabilities that your candidate can or will gather sufficient primary delegates to be nominated in the arduous state by state process that won't begin yet for months. The race for the nomination is not in any real way measured by this national polling. And the individual polls by themselves certainly do not indicate the current state of the race.
But...
Anything can happen. So support your candidate. GOTV!
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)
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DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)She is going to wallop them.
It is not going to be pretty.
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)He'll shine like a lantern .
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #13)
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leftofcool
(19,460 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)You like apples?
-Time Lord
Your boy in going to be the the hapless gentleman in the gray trunks:
How do you like them apples?
That happened in Vegas too, about two miles south on the Strip.
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #27)
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DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Roasted, baked, poached, seared or what?
Because you'll be eating that once Bernie comes out victorious.
Time_Lord
And then you woke up:
Oh, make sure you have a supply of:
around
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)retrowire
(10,345 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)retrowire
(10,345 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)retrowire
(10,345 posts)MineralMan
(146,350 posts)Anyone who thinks Hillary Clinton will fluff these debates has a very short memory. I don't think they will change the polling numbers much at all, but I do think that Joe Biden will decide not to run and Clinton will get a big bump when he does that.
It could even be part of the overall strategy, but I can't be sure of that. We'll see.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)I take umbrage at the fact at folks who suggest Hillary is a door mat and I am not going to be shy about saying so.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)I don't ever remember a debate giving a huge poll bump to a candidate. Not ever.
To think that debates cam make up a difference of 20, 30 points is just delusional.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)This will give her a great opportunity to clarify the nonsense swirling in the media regarding the fake email scandal. She will be very prepared and what she says will most likely satisfy many of her supporters who might be wavering. It also might bring back some who switched to Biden or Bernie. Bottom line I think her numbers go up a bit or at least stay steady... which is all she really needs at this point.
Secondly this will be Bernie's first big appearance before a national stage. Many have never seen or heard him before. I suspect many will be turned off by his gruff bulldog indignant style. I am sure the angry "pissed off" left will love it but they vast majority of voters are not angry or pissed off. They are definitely concerned and worried about the future but I think a calm experienced intelligent leader will likely be more reassuring to them than someone banging on a podium screaming how awful everything is.
Response to DCBob (Reply #26)
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leftofcool
(19,460 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)BooScout
(10,406 posts)BS didn't do so hot against her.
BernieFan57
(80 posts)Huffpost Pollster shows an August CBS poll and the one you cite, no others.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It would be good to show the dates and parameters when you post a customized chart like that.
Thanks.
BernieFan57
(80 posts)That's all I did, and I mentioned the month at least. It was August 2, 2015 I think, and Sept 9, 2015.
The screencap generator at the site doesn't include the time line on the x-axis or other data.
Here's the link:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary#!estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=ipsosreuters,morning-consult,yougoveconomist,zogby-internet,nbcsurveymonkey,zogby-internet-university-of-akron,lincoln-park-strategies-d,robert-morris-university,saint-leo-university,yougov,fairleigh-dickinson,ibdtipp,suffolkusa-today,nbcwsj,fox,bloombergselzer,quinnipiac,cnn,abcpost,monmouth-university,mcclatchymarist,reasonrupe,ppp-d,gravis-marketingone-america-news,emerson-college-polling-society,rasmussen,ppp-d
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I unchecked polling average to just show the actual polls and it show only two (see below).. not really useful.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)BernieFan57
(80 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)BernieFan57
(80 posts)And it's not "my graph"-- it's a Pollster generated graph showing only the CBS poll.
The option doesn't exist to exclude Biden. If the CBS poll included him then it's going to be included in the data and the graphics.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)I said take Biden away, add his numbers to Hillary, then post the graph.
BernieFan57
(80 posts)I'm sorry, I can't do that-- that's not valid or legitimate, you just don't change other people's votes in a survey to suit your agenda or preferred outcome.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Response to BernieFan57 (Reply #15)
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ram2008
(1,238 posts)The Numbers will definitely change.
riversedge
(70,441 posts)oasis
(49,480 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)SoapBox
(18,791 posts)Since she's been virtually hiding out in the private loaner jet, attending dinners with billionaires at $2700 a plate or doing her "conversations" with small groups on an "invitation only" basis.
MILLIONS will be reminded why they are over 30+ years of the Clintons and Hillary being in our face...try as she might, DWS can stack the audience, hide the debates on weekends and let CNN pick who they want for a panel BUT Hill has to finally get in front of the cameras...FINALLY.
She's gonna drop like a rock.
..................
http://www.nationofchange.org/2015/10/10/candidate-scorecard-sanders-leads-populism-drives-debate/
"On the other hand, she has not yet chosen to challenge many of the ways this economy is rigged against working people. She opposes breaking up the big banks, a new Glass-Steagall Act that would separate Wall Streets casino from federally guaranteed deposits, and a true financial transactions tax. She has not embraced expanded Social Security benefits or Medicare for All, the necessary next battle in health care reform. She doesnt call for taxing investment income at same rates as the income from work, or for taxing multinationals at same rates as domestic small businesses by repealing the deferral of taxes on income earned abroad which gives multinationals incentives to shift jobs or report profits abroad (with an estimated $2 trillion now nominally stashed abroad to evade taxes). Shes not advocated new higher tax rates on millionaires and billionaires, and thus is vague about the scale of her public investment agenda."
retrowire
(10,345 posts)I love how a few posts up, we Bernie supporters were told we don't live in the real world and all we do is high five each other.
The obvious is all around you, in the real world. Get out of the bubble. Talk to people other than those online and your close friends.
Logical
(22,457 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)and Clinton down from 58 to 56; Sanders up from 27 to 28 with Biden left out.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clintons-lead-over-bernie-sanders-cut-by-half-in-national-poll/
Statistically essentially the same as a month ago, trend flattening but not surprising given the nature of the time frame.
I expect more dramatic changes to resume -- either trends resuming or reversed -- with so many upcoming events.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)And after this debate, Bernie's going to get a nice spike in support.
Hillary, more of a dip.
People need to stop clinging to individual numbers and look at the numbers as a whole, watch the trends. Numbers like to rubber band around. The statistics climb for Bernie, they drop for Hillary. Clear as day.
PatrickforO
(14,604 posts)I am thinking Bernie will come out on top and give viewers a real education on issues instead of MSM talking points. Let's hope so.
Plucketeer
(12,882 posts)I don't think we're getting the truth anymore. I think that's why record crowds are turning up wherever Sanders speaks. They want to familiarize themselves with what the truth really sounds like. They wanna know how to differentiate the sound of truth vs the squeak of a weathervane. Either that or those different towns and states have one hell of an excess of movie extras that the Sanders campaign hires for effect - ala Trump.
I sure hope it's illuminated as to just who it is that's financing HRC's run for corporate lackey.
stonecutter357
(12,698 posts)stonecutter357
(12,698 posts)lib87
(535 posts)The numbers will shift somewhat but not flip. I look forward to watching and seeing how HC & BS debate each other.
I will have my popcorn ready to read the more outrageous comments on DU after the debate.
jfern
(5,204 posts)You only nominate someone with a negative -20 net favorable rating if you want to be sure to lose the general election.
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Prism
(5,815 posts)And 1/3 from Sanders.
Clinton gains 10 pts without Biden, Sanders 5.
We've been hearing that 2/3 number for awhile, and it keeps holding up in polling.
I'd really like if they'd just stop polling Biden.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,177 posts)Anyone wondering about Sanders, and others like O'Malley, will get a sense of whether they want to spread the "love" around.
johnson_z
(45 posts)This poll is with out any (official) campaigning by the Vice President, I think if (when) Biden throws his hat in the ring, these numbers will change.
This is of course my utterly biased opinion, with just a little bit of wishful thinking mixed in.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Response to AtomicKitten (Reply #90)
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AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)And as you can see, he's above 35%.