2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPoll: Clinton opens huge leads in NV=Clinton 50, Sanders 34--& SC
Reported just now on CNN
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is opening a wide lead in the democratic presidential race in Nevada and South Carolina, a new CNN/ORC poll shows.cnn.com 00:55 8 mins ago
quickesst
(6,283 posts)FarPoint
(12,472 posts)quickesst
(6,283 posts)Right back at ya!
Rybak187
(105 posts)Dramato
(39 posts)The high Latino population there.
And with several months to go Sanders may catch up .
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)mak3cats
(1,573 posts)...with data from RealClearPolitics.
For Nevada and South Carolina (tables include the date the poll was issued, the state, the pollster, and HRC's points over Sanders)
07/16/15 NV PPP +37
10/12/15 NV CNN/ORC +16
08/03/15 SC Gravis +70
09/08/15 SC PPP +30
09/13/15 SC CBS/YouGov +23
10/01/15 SC Gravis +31
10/12/15 SC CNN/ORC +25
Dramato
(39 posts)mak3cats
(1,573 posts)Here's the link to my data source:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#polls
(I only started keeping track in July, but the data goes further back than that.)
Dramato
(39 posts)The lead is now 25%.
Likely voters sample reduce Hillary 's lead as it contains more white voters than RV.
The CNN poll is LV sample.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)16% is not that much to overcome in one state.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)And without a prior poll to compare, we have no way of knowing if her lead has shrunk (although nationally she was mid-60s a few months ago) or grown.
The media's use of the word "open" in this situation is also rather misleading, since that would imply her lead was smaller or nonexistant in the past.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)It's so obnoxious to me that the job of the media should be to shed light on issues, but instead they obfuscate in order to inflate their own importance.
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)It's up to 25 grams now!
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)stonecutter357
(12,698 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,718 posts)Reter
(2,188 posts)It's an arrow pointing to the right. Fitting.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)That's what we've been told as a mantra!
Just wait till she plummets after Tuesday.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)I like the sound of that!
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)her lead has shrunk, continues to shrink and will keep on shrinking once Sanders gets national media exposure.
IOW, you and other HRC supporters are whistling past the graveyard.
What did Marx say about history repeating itself?
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)its all good.
Keep up the good work and yes history will repeat itself!
MineralMan
(146,341 posts)National convention. South Carolina sends 57.
New Hampshire sends 32 and Iowa sends 54.
All of those states make up the earliest primaries. When thinking about primaries, it's important to consider delegate counts and compare them.
Here's a great site that lets you do that:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D
Scroll down a little and click on any state that interests you to find out when it's primaries happen and how many delegates come from that state.
riversedge
(70,381 posts)MineralMan
(146,341 posts)people's opinions when it comes to election information. It helps me get the facts I need to figure out my own opinion. I'm funny that way.
riversedge
(70,381 posts)my primary problem many times. Have a good day. Windy over here across the St Croix Lots of leaves to rake at mom's house but thought I would wait to see if lots would blow into the neighbors lot. It is his oak tree anyway. te he.
MineralMan
(146,341 posts)My neighbor's elm tree will get stripped of leaves today, and they're all blowing into my yard. Our huge silver maple won't drop its leaves until sometime in November, so I'll be mowing and mulching leaves several times before the first big snow. Yuck!
I love having a huge shade tree, but pretty much hate dealing with the leaves. A mulching mower, though, makes the job a little easier and saves on fertilizer, too.
MADem
(135,425 posts)There's this option, too, as well:
[center]
'He who rakes LAST,
Rakes LEAST.'[/center]
Words to live by!!!
MineralMan
(146,341 posts)Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)The map at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ shows each state's electoral votes and is color-coded to show approximately when the delegates are chosen. You can mouse over a state to get more information.
I like the Greenpapers site you linked to for its greater level of detail, such as the breakdown of each state's delegation to each convention. The electoral-vote map, though, makes the basic information more accessible, and having everything in one map gives you a visual representation of the chronological march through the nomination process.
MineralMan
(146,341 posts)It's good to have different ways to look at information.
Romulox
(25,960 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)The last one was in July. Anything older than a couple of months is meaningless.
Also without Biden, Hillary's lead is big.. and in SC her lead is huge no matter what.
Bernie is toast once we get past East Sanderstan (aka NH).
riversedge
(70,381 posts)....East Sanderstan (aka NH).
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I suspect the Bernie bunch don't.
loudsue
(14,087 posts)Of course, they are also effectively eliminating Bernie from the news altogether.
BernieFan57
(80 posts)Where's the league of women voters when we need them?
CNN ain't legit.
riversedge
(70,381 posts)BernieFan57
(80 posts)The two parties pushed them out. As I've suggested in the past, the corporations that own the media and own so many elected officials love this.
10/03/1988 | by LWV
NEWS RELEASE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
October 3, 1988
LEAGUE REFUSES TO "HELP PERPETRATE A FRAUD"
WITHDRAWS SUPPORT FROM FINAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
WASHINGTON, DC "The League of Women Voters is withdrawing its sponsorship of the presidential debate scheduled for mid-October because the demands of the two campaign organizations would perpetrate a fraud on the American voter," League President Nancy M. Neuman said today.
"It has become clear to us that the candidates' organizations aim to add debates to their list of campaign-trail charades devoid of substance, spontaneity and honest answers to tough questions," Neuman said. "The League has no intention of becoming an accessory to the hoodwinking of the American public."
Neuman said that the campaigns presented the League with their debate agreement on
September 28, two weeks before the scheduled debate. The campaigns' agreement was negotiated "behind closed doors" and vas presented to the League as "a done deal," she said, its 16 pages of conditions not subject to negotiation.
Most objectionable to the League, Neuman said, were conditions in the agreement that gave the campaigns unprecedented control over the proceedings. Neuman called "outrageous" the campaigns' demands that they control the selection of questioners, the composition of the audience, hall access for the press and other issues.
"The campaigns' agreement is a closed-door masterpiece," Neuman said. "Never in the history of the League of Women Voters have two candidates' organizations come to us with such stringent, unyielding and self-serving demands."
http://lwv.org/press-releases/league-refuses-help-perpetrate-fraud
riversedge
(70,381 posts)League no longer does the debates.
loudsue
(14,087 posts)This needs to be widely publicized. damn that pisses me off.
DaveT
(687 posts)is pretty silly.
I'm a Sanders supporter, and I confess that other Bernie fans also crow about poll results that mean almost nothing.
On the other hand, using the actual data from a poll to debunk either the headline over it or the spin being put on it is not silly, but necessary for understanding several other things than who is going to win. Sanders supporters have been using the fact that Bernie is gaining strength -- on the whole -- to debunk the Clinton Narrative of Invincibility.
Back on the first hand, Hillary still has a national lead.
On neither hand, the fact is no one is going to vote for months.
At this point, I don't see how anybody can say we do not have a contest with the outcome in doubt. Is there anything wrong with that? Unless your own favored narrative is that the other guy doesn't stand a chance.
LettuceSea
(337 posts)That state goes to the front runner, unless you pay Steve Wynn a lot of money
I love how they vote in the casinos. That seems legit.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)16 points you say?
Inevitability ain't what it used to be.
William769
(55,148 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)riversedge
(70,381 posts)Thank you.
.............Should Biden decide to sit out the race for the presidency, Clinton's lead grows in both states. In South Carolina, a Biden-free race currently stands at 70% Clinton to 20% Sanders with O'Malley holding at 3%, and in Nevada, Clinton gains 8 points to 58%, while Sanders picks up just 2 points and would stand at 36%.
In South Carolina, Clinton's advantages stem largely from Sanders' unpopularity with black voters, who made up a majority of Democratic primary voters in the state in 2008, the last time there was a competitive Democratic primary. Back then, black voters broke 78% for Barack Obama to 19% for Clinton.
In the new poll, 59% of black voters say they back Clinton, 27% say Biden and just 4% for Sanders. Among white voters, Sanders has the edge, 44% to 31% for Clinton and 22% for Biden. Without Biden in the race, it's a near-even split among whites, 48% Clinton to 47% Sanders, while blacks break 84% to Clinton and just 7% would back Sanders.
Bernie Sanders' political career
These two states, along with Iowa and New Hampshire, are the only ones permitted by both major parties to hold primaries or caucuses in February, and the outcome of the contests in these early states can make or break a presidential campaign.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)from the lead she had in July. As already stated in this thread, if anything, Bernie is catching her and considering it's in a state with a huge Hispanic population, is it any wonder why after remarks Hillary made recently?
Hillary Clinton: Unaccompanied Minors 'Should Be Sent Back'
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday that unaccompanied minors who crossed the border illegally in a massive influx over recent months "should be sent back" to their native countries, but also that they should be reunited with their families -- which sometimes requires them to stay in the United States.
"They should be sent back as soon as it can be determined who responsible adults in their families are, because there are concerns about whether all of them should be sent back," the potential 2016 presidential candidate said in an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour. "But I think all of them who can be should be reunited with their families."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/18/hillary-clinton-immigration_n_5507630.html
frylock
(34,825 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Only 16% in NV several months out? That's def doable.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Nevada might have been good state for Bernie since it has small African American population.