Primary State Predictions

[RandySF]

Last edited Mon Oct 12, 2015, 11:46 PM - Edit history (1)

Yes, I know there is a "poll" with Sanders winning all 50 states, so feel free to hold me to this next summer.

Alabama: Clinton
Alaska: Sanders
American Samoa: Clinton
Arizona: Clinton
Arkansas: Clinton
California: Clinton
Colorado: Sanders
Connecticut: Sanders
DC: Clinton
Delaware: Clinton
Florida: Clinton
Georgia: Clinton
Guam: Clinton
Hawaii: Clinton
Illinois: Clinton
Indiana: Clinton
Iowa: Clinton
Kansas: Sanders
Kentucky: Clinton
Louisiana: Clinton
Maine: Sanders
Maryland: Clinton
Massachusetts: Clinton
Michigan: Clinton
Minnesota: Sanders
Mississippi: Clinton
Missouri: Clinton
Montana: Clinton
Nebraska: Sanders
Nevada: Clinton
New Hampshire: Sanders
New Jersey: Clinton
New Mexico: Clinton
New York: Clinton
North Carolina: Clinton
North Dakota: Sanders
Ohio: Clinton
Oklahoma: Clinton
Oregon: Tossup (I honestly don't know)
Pennsylvania: Clinton
Puerto Rico: Clinton
Rhode Island: Clinton
South Carolina: Clinton
South Dakota: Clinton
Tennessee: Clinton
Texas: Clinton
Utah: Sanders
Vermont: Sanders
Virginia: Clinton
Washington: Clinton
West Virginia: Sanders
Wisconsin: Sanders

[ALBliberal]

1. New Mexico? ha! no worries!

[yeoman6987]

2. I actually agree with all but Hawaii. I think the state may go sanders

It is a very liberal state.

Great job!

[RandySF]

3. Large union and Asian-American vote.

[Cheese Sandwich]

4. California is the big banana

If you start seeing Hillary fall in California then things can change.

It can be a momentum. I think Sanders will hope for a momentum that connects California progressives as part of Western trend that includes pacific northwest, the mountain west and the southwest.

Basically we're everywhere. Just watch it.

[RandySF]

5. CA doesn't vote until June.

It will already be over by then.

[Cheese Sandwich]

7. Well, maybe, but just the polls in california drive the conversation

Sanders has enough money now to stay in it all the all way to the convention.

He's already much bigger than Kucinich ever was, and that guy was in it for a long way with small money.

Bernie can keep the movement up all the way through until it's a real math lock. And I do think he will. In a sense it's wide open.

[Godhumor]

6. Considering most late voting states simply allocate delegates to the presumed nominee

And that I don't think there will be a competitive primary beyond the first two states...


NH: Sanders
Everything Else: Clinton

[longship]

8. Such early projections are just an invitation to look foolish later.

No offense intended!

My projection. Somebody is going to be the clear winner in every state primary/caucus. That is as far as I will go this far out.

Oh! And before I forget, I have not, and will not announce a preference here on DU as long as the childish and churlish infighting continues. I promise to support all Democratic candidates equally and will heartily support the nominee, no matter who it is.

That isn't to say that I don't have preferences, but that I would prefer not to plunge myself into the vat of necrotizing fasciitis that DU primary discussions have recently become.

Nevertheless, R&K
Good luck on your projections, but I suspect that they will be far from the mark, no matter who gets the nomination.

[Control-Z]

9. Candidates drop out along the way

due to a number of things. There will be clear winners but if only one is left halfway through, I guess your statement still holds true. Does the voting continue at that point would be my only question. I honestly don't know how that works.

[longship]

10. Well, certainly the Democrats do not have the problems the GOP has.

Six candidates (if one includes Lawrence Lessig) is a lot, but I think that they will all handle themselves professionally, unlike the insane clowns in the GOP candidate circus.

In fact, I could not criticize any of them winning the election, in spite of the fact that I might not agree with all their positions. Because any of them would be far, far, far better than the best of a group of insane clowns from lunatic asylum that the GOP has become.

So my opinion is pretty easy to reach. Support the Democratic Party, and support the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee. And no matter how the Dem primaries go, we can be pretty damned sure that none of those insane GOP clowns are going to reach the White House.

So I am comfortable with the situation. Very comfortable. Plus, we will surely get the US Senate back. And heaven only knows what will happen in the House, but I cannot think that the GOP is not going to lose a bunch of seats, Gerrymandering notwithstanding.

My best to you.