Polling people who didn't watch a debate on who won the debate makes no sense

[Skwmom]

Last edited Fri Oct 16, 2015, 04:48 PM - Edit history (3)

unless you are trying to determine how successful you have been in pushing a meme about who won the debate (versus trying to determine what people who actually watched the debate thought). Didn't they use to do overnight polling on this question?


While a poster pointed out below one poll did not ask those who did not watch it (my mistake) the poll they have been pushing all day was this one which says those polled either watched OR followed coverage of the debate. And even if you watched it, someone constantly telling you who won it can affect your opinion. Which is probably why they used to do these polls overnight - to get a more valid response. The Suffolk poll took place on the 14th AND 15th. The debate was on the 13th.

From the Survey Monkey Poll:

Just 3% of Democrats who watched or followed coverage of the debate said she did worst, giving her a net performance score of +53. Bernie Sanders scored a +30, showing he still appealed to a significant number of Democrats, according to the latest NBC News online poll conducted nationwide by SurveyMonkey from Tuesday evening immediately following the debate until Thursday morning.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/nbc-online-poll-clinton-wins-debate-reenergizes-core-backers-n445546

UPDATE: The Huff Post/YouGov also polled people who DID not watch the debate "Which candidate do you think did the best job – or won – the debate? Asked of those who watched at least clips or highlights of the debate" Clips and highlights brought to you by the corporate media - with added commentary.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/huffpost-yougov-poll-democratic-debate_56203935e4b06462a13b8449?fl7eqaor

[yeoman6987]

1. You are on to something.

Nobody who didn't watch the debate should vote in the polls. I can't believe rude people would do that.

[Skwmom]

4. Q: Did you watch the entire Democratic Debate? No. Okay, thanks for your time.

It's not brain surgery.

[yeoman6987]

19. Yes I did every minute! I enjoy them.

[yeoman6987]

20. Oh and I didn't vote in a single poll either

I know they are crap especially internet polls so why bother. You seem to know nothing about me with your snarky crapoy comments.

[daleanime]

26. I think she was replying to you....

not making a comment about you. Could be wrong of course.

[yeoman6987]

34. Oh sorry. I am on oxy right now due severe back pain so I am a bit loopy.

[daleanime]

35. No probem...

Wouldn't wish back pain on anybody.

[yeoman6987]

36. Thanks. It is the worst!

[demwing]

7. Clearly

we're on to the bullshit being force-fed to us by Hillary's Corporate Chums

[sufrommich]

2. Who did that? nt

[MADem]

3. What, precisely, are you after with your poll? That is the real question.

Do you want to know which candidate is likely to get the most votes if the election were held anytime soon, or do you want to know what grades the "Debate Professor" should give to the members of the DNC Debate Team?

If your poll is all about the upshot, then it doesn't matter who saw or didn't see the entire debate. All that matters is the take-away.

If your poll is all about sitting in judgment of the debating style of five individuals, and you don't really care about politics, or who is going to be the Democratic candidate for the presidency, then sitting through the entire process, from the first question fired off at nine PM, to the last question just before the closing statements, would be helpful.

[Human101948]

5. But it could be used as a way to determine how people will vote...

and that's what it all comes down to. Most voters don't spend day and night obsessing about the ups and downs of candidates. They form an opinion based on stuff they've seen on Facebook, sort of heard or seen on the news, discussions with friends who may be repeating things that are totally bogus. So, even if they just heard so-and-so won the debate, it's just as good as if they watched the entire debate and carefully considered their answer.

[Robbins]

8. sorry

but if you can't even bother in evening to turn on the TV to watch debate why should we believe you will make effort to in winter to go vote in primary.

[StrongBad]

12. I don't have cable because I know it's shit.

In fact, I would be more inclined to believe that those without a TV are more well informed.

[Human101948]

14. You may be correct about the primary...

I was thinking more about the general election. And a shipload of low info people will be voting.

[Maedhros]

31. But, these polls do show that Clinton support is highest among low-information voters

that can be convinced that someone "won" a debate without actually watching the debate. That kind of support is potentially wide but very shallow.

[demwing]

6. It's the New Science!

Online polls and focus groups of people who just watched the debate are useless

Standard polls of people who admit they never watched the debate are vital, relevant, and sciency!

It's a brave new world, consumer. Put down you pen and step away from the voting area...

[Fawke Em]

10. I wish I could rec this post on it's own.

And just for the word, "sciency," alone.

[Blue_Adept]

9. I'm waiting for BernieUnskewed.com

[Fawke Em]

11. I'm waiting for the Millenials who aren't polled

because they're not "likely voters" to storm the caucus and the polls, myself.

I hope they do.

They seem awfully fired up this year.

[questionseverything]

27. 500 voters polled and 18 were under 24..lol

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_16_2015_final_marginals.pdf

105 of them were over 65

this is how they get a headline that hc retakes the nh lead

[Robbins]

15. This is complete BS

back in 2012 republicans just said polls were wrong.there is legitimate flaws in these polls underpolling key block of bernie supporters and even in their own polling a huge amount of people polled didn't even bother to watch debate.

The flaws are in their own methodolgy.

[demwing]

17. Why? .nt

[AgingAmerican]

13. Obfuscation

nt

[StrongBad]

16. That didn't happen. Only those that said they watched the debate were asked who won.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251690927

[Skwmom]

18. It did happen on the Survey Monkey Poll. I updated my post above. n/t

[sufrommich]

21. By " followed coverage of" they mean people who listened

to it without watching,like someone who listened to it on the radio. They differentiate between the two because listening without actually watching a debate can produce two different results as it did in the Nixon/ Kennedy debates.

[Skwmom]

22. Really? Where are you getting that definition from. Plus the Huff Post/You Gov poll included

people who at least watched clips or a portion. n/t

[sufrommich]

23. Because they've used that term for every debate since

The Nixon/Kennedy debate. That stopped assuming that everybody "watched" the debate,or did you think they made up new terms just to stick it to Bernie? Why don't you do some research on past debate polls.

[jeff47]

30. That's some creative writing.

If only there was a verb that one could use to differentiate between people who heard the debate on the radio. Like "listened".

[brooklynite]

24. How about allowing people who didn't watch to vote in an online poll?

[ibegurpard]

25. Well they had to give some time for the pundit pile-on

To take effect...

[BainsBane]

28. Who "won" per se isn't nearly as important

as who the voters prefer for President. The rationale for more debates advanced by Sanders supporters was that being exposed to Bernie would prompt voters to support him. If the debate has that result, that's what counts.
We'll have to see the results of more polls to know whether or not it did, but the initial polling suggests not.

[Kalidurga]

29. I am okay with all of this.

I remember way back during the time Romney was campaigning against Obama. It was hysterical all the crap his people said about Obama and all the polls they unskewed and how they thought "winning" a debate was going to mean he would be president. They threw around a term~Presidential~ a whole lot. They ignored that Obama had to be President and campaign at the same time and cited media people saying he looked tired(well duh).

So, no I don't care what the pundits say. I don't care what anyone says about the debate. I know what I saw and it was substance against fluff. So, just as I declared Obama the winner of the first debate, I declare Bernie as the winner of the first. And I will say it again, I think he won before he even got on the stage.

[Robbins]

32. I will say this

if after the debate i watched if dems really believe clinton won debate as NBC,Gravis,and youguv claim where is the engery for
Clinton?Bernie raised 3.5 million after debate from small donnor so she must have better numbers if everyone loved her.

There is no use talking to those who buy into the phonyness that is Clinton.She is as much a progressive as i am a republican.

Here is promise if she wins NH i will leave both DU and democratic party and never come back.

I will need to save every penny i can because for those like me on social safety net she or republicans with their neocon and procorporate trade bills cuts social safety net.

[Kalidurga]

33. Here is Clinton's problem in a nutshell...

Hillary Clinton has no room to grow. Most her donor's have already tapped out, corporations are her only possible source now. She already has name recognition so people have already made up their minds and if they like her they still like her, if they don't well that won't change. She will never poll much over 50% now, for well just about anything. In the GE, she will struggle to stay over 50% for all of those reasons plus more.

Bernie on the other hand is taking a lot of small donations, most people give more than once. 30 dollars here and there makes a big difference. He has room to grow. A lot of people still haven't heard about him and more than 50% who do learn about him go away with a favorable opinion.

Bernie is just more likable and that makes him Hillary's biggest nightmare.

[Robbins]

37. iT'S So strange

according to clinton supporters.she has no problems.it should be over because the MSM which we usually hate for being mean to her
suddenly push polls that have her as big winner and now we love them.

How about if people really love her so much she beats bernie's money raised after debate.

in 3rd quarter bernie has outraised republicans and nearly matched her.yet he only takes money from small donors.

We shall see who people really like.

If clinton suppporters ever again try to say she has more likes on facebook i will remind them but you said facebook was ilrelvent
and only kids use them.

[Kalidurga]

38. Good point re facebook and donations

Yes, Clinton has more likes on facebook. Well I wouldn't even care if Bernie did. Facebook just shows how well known you are. Bernie doesn't even have half the name recognition as Hillary. But, who is getting people to open their wallets? It is Bernie. Who is getting people to open up their hearts? It is Bernie again. People love Bernie, people like Hillary.