2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObservations from the front lines....
I am a mailman in Gainesville, Fl where the University of Florida is located. Although the college kids are very liberal, most of the population here is not. As a mailman, I talk with a wide variety of people on a daily basis, and because I have been at the job for less than two years I do a different route almost every day and speak to people across the whole town. As such, I felt compelled to share with all of you a few observations I have made over the past 6 months.
From what I can see, I think Bernie is going to win the primary, and then the Presidency. I see probably 20 Bernie Sanders yard signs a day, and zero Hillary signs. I haven't seen any Hillary signs in 6 months. That says something to me. Enthusiasm plays a big part in winning a primary obviously, and Bernie supporters have most of the energy. Hillary supporters may like her a lot with their brains, but I know several that aren't even going to vote in the primary and I think it is because Hillary doesn't inspire them or appeal to their hope.
I saw a person the other day with some Hillary stickers on her bumper, and Bernie stickers on the back facing part of her trunk. I asked her what the deal was, and she said that she used to be for Hillary, but has decided to vote for Bernie in the primary. If he loses the primary, she will vote Hillary. Fortunately, 99% of the people I have spoken with will vote Democrat no matter who the nominee is. And some of these people are former Republican voters. Bernie did an amazing thing, and not a lot of people are recognizing this. A lot of policies appeal to old-school Goldwater Republicans, which there are still many. Those people finally pulled their heads out their asses regarding the CURRENT Republican party, and were enticed by what Bernie was saying. Now that they finally considered a "liberal," the realized that Democratic policies nowadays actually more closely resemble traditional Republicanism, at least more than the current Republican party does. People that haven't voted Democratic in ages are practically eager to vote Democratic this time. I have several theories on why old people like him, but regardless, they like him, and most don't like Hillary, usually for dumb reasons.
He has the support of young people. I don't know the average age of a DU poster, but I am 34. Most of the people I hang out with are approximately 45 years old, but due to my fiance's job, I socialize with many people in their late teens to late 20's. Bernie is, by far, the preferred candidate among all these different age groups. College kids love him. Period. Most of them will not even consider Hillary. As for the people in their mid-twenties to mid-thirties, literally every one I know is going to vote for Bernie in the primary. Many of them are even changing their party affiliation just so they can vote for him in the primary, as many of them were previously No Party Affiliation or Green Party. Most of these people will vote for Hillary if she wins, but they are doing every thing they can to prevent that. As for the people in their 40's, most of these people are hippies artists, so it isn't surprising that they prefer Bernie. I suspect marijuana legalization is a big reason for that.
Whatever their individual reasons, Bernie seems to be the only candidate I hear people talking about in my real life. Six months ago, I was the only person in my sphere talking about him. Now, everyone is. Additionally, I have it on good authority that the Postal union will be endorsing Bernie Sanders very soon, which isn't surprising, but is surely welcome. Just wanted to add my two cents for any Democrats that aren't feeling pumped for this coming election cycle! Have a good weekend everyone.
Uncle Joe
(58,459 posts)Thanks for sharing, ClarkJonathanKent.
snagglepuss
(12,704 posts)posting your observations and welcome to DU
Go Bernie Go
Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)Made me think of "Dewey Defeats Truman!"
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)In the rural area where I am, I think Hillary would lose to the republican but Sanders would have a good chance of winning. I am seeing plenty of Sanders bumper stickers, a few Carson, and that's it. We will see.
CheshireDog
(63 posts)Florida is really fertile ground for Hillary - older, more moderate Democrats and a lot of Hispanics. There was a recent poll of Florida and its really no contest there right now. Hillary is way ahead
artislife
(9,497 posts)Yes, I see it, too.
Especially one old-school Goldwater Republican---Hillary. She has been shifting her stand on issues for the last two weeks.
He is really good and appealing.
Thanks for the OP!
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)check out the Bernie Sanders group here (in case you haven't already) click on Democrats under the Topics list on the left.
joanbarnes
(1,723 posts)SandersDem
(592 posts)TY TY TY TY TY!!!!
I listened to a little bit of Hillary today and it just sounded like the words were simple cookie cutter nothingness.
840high
(17,196 posts)PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)from the rest of the country (and even from the rest of Florida).
Note the polling from Florida:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html
Thanks for the interesting post.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Funny how that works. No matter what, someone comes out to wave your arms and go "nope! doesn't count, nothing to see!"
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)Supporters of a candidate almost always think polls are wrong and their candidate is really doing
better than the polls show.
I like to be reality based though. Perhaps I take a more critical view of the "everyone I know is for"
posts because of that time I thought Michael Dukakis was going to be the next President because
all I ever saw were Dukakis for President signs. It turned out that my view was skewed as I lived
in a Greek neighborhood though.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)Puppyjive
(508 posts)I think Hilary is winning in the minds of those who control the media. But Bernie is winning the hearts of the American people because he embraces everyone. We want a change from the status quo in politics. The media should never underestimate the power of the people. Our paychecks are not signed by big pharma or billionaires.
BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)I am an Eisenhower Conservative. My personal outlook is most closely aligned with that of three presidents (two Republican, one Democrat): Teddy Roosevelt (Square Deal), Truman (the buck stops here), and Eisenhower (five balanced budgets out of eight, understood that we must have adequate infrastructure to support a thriving economy).
And why is Remington for Bernie Sanders?
Hes an independent who has spoken up for veterans issues, rebuilding a strong middle class, and re-introducing the common sense that Thomas Paine wrote about into our modern government. Bernie Sanders seems to me to be to the 21st Century what Teddy Roosevelt was to the 20th Century.
And does the word socialist bother him?
I will support anyone who not only talks the talk but also walks the walk regarding the issues that I consider to be important. With that in mind, the phrase democratic socialist does not bother mebecause I happen to know that two of the most prosperous nations in Europe are democratic socialist (Denmark & Sweden.) There is nothing intrinsically wrong withsocialismall effective government is socialist to some degree: Public Education; Public works (utilities and roads); Public institutions such as museums, theaters, and libraries. Social involvement does NOT equate to control of society.
https://www.laprogressive.com/republicans-for-sanders/
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)and their party specifically and are looking for a real change. Sanders is certainly the major
candidate offering the biggest change from the status quo.
TheFarS1de
(1,017 posts)that will either help slingshot Sanders into office or prove to be Clinton's Achilles heel imo .
southerncrone
(5,506 posts)Thanks for sharing!