For those wondering how much influence Pollster's moderate smoothing has on trendlines

[Godhumor]

The current Iowa map is a great illustration of how they discount current results versus history:

Moderate Smoothing (default)


Less Smoothing (custom)



I've been waiting for a good image comparison to show this. I am not saying one version or the other is better, but the default Pollster graphs do respond very slowly to new information. It is the reason it took almost a full month for the Bernie plateau to manifest itself in the national tracker.

[upaloopa]

1. So which chart represents where we are today?

[Godhumor]

4. Taking the polls at face value, you would always use less smoothing

If you feel that trends tend to be relatively static until an abundance of new information proves otherwise, you'd use the default moderate smoothing.

I tend to go with the less smoothing, as I want to see the short term peaks and valleys.

[sufrommich]

2. I'm going to be honest,I have no idea

what smoothing means.

[Godhumor]

6. They use a regression calculation to smooth disparate data

From their FAQ:
http://www.pollster.com/pollster-faq/

Our standard estimator, which appears as the default on our charts, is designed to resist “chasing” noise in poll results (which, as Charles explains, may be the result of random sampling error or “house effects” and differences in methodology rather than real movement in the polls) but still be sensitive enough to detect real movement. However, at times it may appear to be too conservative or too sensitive. In particular, this somewhat conservative estimator may be slow to chase trends early on, which means it can be slow to accept that public opinion is actually changing. While we feel strongly that we should not make subjective judgment calls on this and therefore use the same default estimator for all of our charts, and that generally speaking our default smoother does a good job of filtering out random noise in the polling data, if you wish you can set the smoothing function to more or less sensitive using the “smoothing” button under “tools” in our interactive charts.

[MohRokTah]

7. That means we have at least another week before we see the true impact of the debate....

and the hearings on the polling results.

[Capt. Obvious]

8. Gee, what was the deleted message?

[DCBob]

9. Sanders supporters has been tricked by this issue and didnt notice the trends for many weeks.

I have tried to post a number of graphs using the less smoothing option only be relentlessly bashed by Bernsters for fake charts, cherry picking polls, etc. Blinded by their bias, I presume.