The "Electability" Argument Is Dead

[FreakinDJ]

The "Electability" Argument Is Dead: All the Polls Show Bernie Does Better Against GOP Than Hillary


You hear this a lot: "I would vote for Bernie, but he's just not electable. We need a candidate who can beat the GOP." Sounds reasonable enough, right? So I started digging into the data. And it turns out, that not only does Hillary not poll better against GOP candidates than Bernie, but Bernie consistently polls better than she does.

A quick note on methodology: I am using only pollsters that use live pollsters and include cell phones because they have the best track record. I am not including any internet pollsters because some people don't trust them for some reason, even though they also have a pretty good track record. Robo-pollsters like PPP, have the worst track record and are therefore not included, even though PPP has stated over and over that Sanders runs just as well as, or better than, Clinton. See here and here. Also, I am only using recent data: only polls since September.

Before I start, keep in mind that pollsters, in their infinite wisdom, were often polling Biden, a non-candidate in head to heads, but not Sanders. As a result, there are fewer general election polls testing Sanders. However, there are some early-state polls that test general election head to heads.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/27/1440343/-The-Electability-Argument-Is-Dead-All-the-Polls-Show-Bernie-Does-Better-Against-GOP-Than-Hillary

[cantbeserious]

1. And There It Is - We All Know The Truth - Bernie Is The Better Candidate

eom

[Enthusiast]

64. +1!

[Thinkingabout]

2. Not having the right qualities makes one not electable. A candidate has to have what it takes

to be a president, we have already experienced George W Bush, he had electability but not the qualities to be president.

[misterhighwasted]

9. I'd like to hear bernies Foreign Policy plans.

Not a peep. Why does he quicky sidestep away from an answer whenever he is asked?
That's exactly what he does.

Horribly unelectable.
Small State governance yes, Global leader? frighteningly NOT.
We don't need another GW, with nary an ounce of Foreign Policy or diplomacy. Not in our world today.

He avoids this very critical subject.
Epic Failure

[RobertEarl]

20. Bernie's foreign ploicy?

Pretty much leave them alone. Help them when they need help and stop bombing them and no more invasions.

Hillary's is more of the same like GW: We came, we saw, he died.

Your candidate is the epic failure and your two-faced support for her is really quite disgusting. You say we don't need another GW but that's all Hillary offers. Disgusting. Pull your pants up, the display you present here is really showing us something worse than a plumber's crack.

[misterhighwasted]

22. Lol. He wanted to "leave them alone" till that lucrative MIC Contract changed hi$ mind.

Sorry, your answer is debunked.
Next?

[RobertEarl]

25. That's all you have

Just a huge crack showing two faces of ugly.

You debunk no one but yourself with inane comments and the "We don't want another GW" ..... but Hillary voted for GW's invasion!!

That there's your huge crack. Please, pull your pants up. Quit showing it

[misterhighwasted]

27. And the biggest crack of all is bernies sellout of his NO vote for a YE$ Vote

There's your big crack.
Have a lovely day.

Still waiting for an explanation on bernies hypocracy.
$$$ Spoke to bernie in the end.
F-35 MIC Contract following his sanctamonious NO Vote he brags about pretty much speaks to his foreign policy experience.
The deaths of innocents in the Iraq War is on bernies hands as well, but he's avoiding that question like the plague.
Just another GW, $$ before peace, that he claims he wants.
I call bull shit on this big looming crack in the bernie campaign.

I'll wait for the next debate to hear him walk himself outta this flip flop.
Bye

[RobertEarl]

32. Dude

Hillary voted for GW's invasion of Iraq!

CRACK

Bernie voted NO.

The MIClinton is going to build the F-35 with or without Bernie's support.

It is hilarious that all you have against Bernie is he voted to get his state some of the work that goes into building the F-35.

And all the while act like all of the 3 blind mice when it comes to H> being a warmonger and voting for invasions.

You are just embarrassing yourself now.

[misterhighwasted]

35. Bernie welcomed in to VT the MIC F-35 CONTRACT

HRC didn't have a thing to do with his decision to flip flop that NO vote for a lucrative $$$ contract.

Thus is his to own.
3300 rounds pr minute kills a lot of innocents.
Thanks bernie. $$ellout.

[RobertEarl]

36. That's sad

I feel your pain.

The only argument you can come up with is that Bernie voted to get some work into his state from a tiny piece of the trillion dollars the pentagon spends every year.

I feel your pain, but will not coddle your ignoring the Truths. Indeed, if you could just open one eye and admit that Hillary is the warmonger, I think that we could all accept that you have the best intentions and are not just on a slander campaign. The choice is yours.

[misterhighwasted]

41. No, what is really sad is the constant meme by his fans that..

Bernie voted no on Iraq and HRC voted Yes.
Well here ya go.
Bernie voted no till YE$ was more lucrative.
Thats it.
Thats a sellout.
I still have yet to hear an explaination as to why he voted against his own sanctamonious claim of that NO VOTE on the war. Yet voted to fund thw war & welcomed into VT the horrific purpose of the F-35.
Thats what is sad.
The hypocracy.

Bernie owes an answer and an apology, as did HRC.
The killing of innocents lays on his shoulders also.
But not a peep from him about that ownership, not an apology for the innocents killed.
He stood on principle until he sold out that principle to the MIC contract.
Thats what is really $ad.

[RobertEarl]

50. Yeah

You keep trying that. That being equating the support for GW's invasion of Iraq with Bernie voting to keep the military protecting America by providing money for the defense budget.

Bernie's stance on supporting the defense of the US is NOT going to be a part of the republican campaign commercials. Indeed, there isn't much they can run against Bernie. But if you keep trying, you might give them some ideas?

[restorefreedom]

3. bernie has the support and the cred. excellent. nt

[Demeter]

4. Bernie is a President for the Whole Nation

Hillary is a President of One. It's that simple, and that obvious.

[msrizzo]

5. Perhaps electability is not the only reason Hillary is the frontrunner. nt

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

52. Of course it isn't. It's not even the main one.

She had 99% name recognition going into the campaign, while Sanders had maybe 5% at a guess. And I still meet gobs of people who don't know who he is, and have no idea what his stances are.

[Doctor_J]

6. I think everyone knows that down deep

The young bernistas, without a strong party identification, won't go to the polls for Hillary.it would serve the party right if their annointed candidate loses.

[artislife]

40. Yup nt

[JaneyVee]

7. Beating the Republicans is the easy part...

Beating a much more qualified candidate like Hillary will be the hard part.

[FreakinDJ]

8. Would be great if Hillary could beat Trump

But a lot of polling shows she won't

[misterhighwasted]

12. She will do to Trump what she did to Team Gowdy.

Trump's a big mouth blow hard. Hillary's been dealing with his kind since She & Bill emerged on the political scene 25 yrs ago.
Piece of cake for HRC.
I hope Trump is her GE challenger

[JaneyVee]

21. She is a master debater...

Trump is a master baiter.

[Hydra]

10. The party is making an interesting calculation

They are focusing on sinking Bernie's campaign, expecting that his supporters will vote for Hillary in the primary or if they don't the "radical left" can be blamed for the loss.

Our Party seems to have taken the strategy of doing as little as possible for normal people as their credo. I think we're watching not only the demise of the GOP but also our own party in progress...too bad we don't have time for this BS with climate change so far advanced.

[peacebird]

11. Yes, interesting, eh?

[stevenleser]

17. Every party makes that calculation every election. There is no other way to operate.

Every party makes the assumption that most of its rank and file will support the person that wins the nomination whether it is for county commissioner, state rep, state senate, Governor, congress, the US Senate or President.

[Hydra]

29. You missed the second part

Where they are deciding to offer just a little less suck then the other team. That's called failing, whether you stay afloat or not.

[stevenleser]

34. I didn't miss it. I ignored the subjective stuff and concentrated on the factual stuff. nt

[Hydra]

39. You're denying climate change and income inequality problems in one breath as "subjective"?

Awesome. No wonder you have the position you do.

[Ed Suspicious]

38. There will be low voter turnout if Hillary wins the nomination.

We all know what happens when there is low dem turnout.

[Enthusiast]

65. Precisely.

[Scuba]

67. /\_/\_This_/\_/\

[Sheepshank]

71. yup...at least 10 DU'ers have said they will sit out the GE if Hillary is the nominee

I'm freaking out!!!!

[artislife]

49. ^^ this nt

[tularetom]

58. You have nailed it

I think that's exactly what "they" believe, and I also think they are in for a very rude awakening if our party is dumb enough to push such a losing strategy.

The Democratic party is in the process of self destructing. They seem to be sure that working for the people rather than oligarchy is a mistake. If they keep up this foolish course they will cease to exist as a national party in the next decade.

[99th_Monkey]

13. Glad people are beginning to notice this, and say it out loud.

I kept seeing polls showing Sanders running stronger in the GE than Hillary, yet kept also
hearing endless about Hillary's 'electability' in the GE. But -- lazy me -- i never got around
to tracking down the information and posting it, so glad someone has.

Woot! Go Bernie!

[Cheese Sandwich]

14. Sanders is the most electable. woot yay nt.

[DanTex]

15. Problem is, nobody outside the Bernie echo chamber believes that.

[stevenleser]

16. Nope, this article forgets one important thing that completely invalidates its results.

The GOP has been attacking Hillary for years and stepped up those attacks in the last 2-3 years. They have thrown everything they can at her and she is still doing well against them. In a one on one contest with whomever emerges from the clown car, we can expect her to destroy them in the debates and run away with the G.E.

The GOP hasn't begun to touch Bernie, and he does about as well against them as Hillary. We can expect that if Bernie became the front runner and/or nominee and the GOP smear machine gets after him, it would shave a good 10-20 points off his total against them. He is also not as good a debater as Hillary as we saw from the first debate.

When it all shakes out Bernie would do much worse against the eventual GOP nominee than Hillary would.

[JonLeibowitz]

31. Interesting.

Do you have the world series 2016 results as well? I would like to get my bets in early.

[treestar]

45. There is good reasoning in Steve's post

The GOP machine has not begun to go after Bernie. They will dig up all kinds of crap. It's what they do.

[JonLeibowitz]

56. While that may be true,

Without a crystal ball or a time machine it is impossible to know if their tactics would work better against Sanders. There are opinions both ways, but stating it as fact is, well, an overstatement.

That is why i ask who wins the world series title.

[Sheepshank]

72. Candidate Obama was squeaky clean in comparison to any Republican in 2004 and 2008.

and since it was hard to find actual shit on Obama, they stooped to making up shit. Death panels, Muslim, Birtherism.

Bernie has a long history in which to tap into for details, and the Republican machine will twist any and everything in his long tenure in public office to instill fear against Bernie, should he become the Dem nominee.

They've already thrown all the shit at Hillary they could get their hands on, and she is still standing tall and strong. Once the Republican (women in particular), gets a real look at what Hillary has to say about women's issues on the debate stage with the Republican front runner, it'll be game over for them.

[Hortensis]

18. LOL. For zealots it will never be dead, not even when she's president.

Lord only knows just how they'll flame then, maybe claim she stole the election or something, but hopefully they'll be doing it on other forums by then. The terms of service require support of the Democratic nominee in the general.

[onenote]

19. Both candidates are "electable"

But only if the supporters of whichever candidate doesn't get the nomination come together to support the candidate that gets the nomination.

[zalinda]

23. Again..........

It doesn't matter if all the Democrats vote for a candidate, they won't win. They must have Independents to vote for them to win.

Z

[LWolf]

24. I'm happy to see it dead and buried.

I'm willing to stand on its grave and dance, just to keep it from erupting as an animated rotten corpse.

[Lil Missy]

26. One problem - he can't beat HRC. n/t

[Live and Learn]

28. K&R nt

[cosmicone]

30. It is not dead at all

Bernie has <7% chance of winning the nomination so he has not been put through the wringers by the media. If he were to get the nomination, focus will be on him and he will start polling at 40% vs Repukes at 60%.

Bernie is currently the darling of Kochroaches and KKKarl Rove because he is doing their dirty work of bringing Hillary down. They will not be nice to him if he gets the nomination and 1.8 Billion dollars worth of ads will be unleashed against him.

That is why match-up polls against Bernie are irrelevant right now.

[pinebox]

37. Seriously?

Are you kidding me? I wonder if you made the same statements against Obama too?
There's more horse shit in you statement than the Kentucky Derby has horses.

Bernie is currently the darling of Kochroaches and KKKarl Rove because he is doing their dirty work of bringing Hillary down.

[Beacool]

33. Poll results can be juggled every which way.

Bottom line, I doubt that the nation is ready to elect a 75 year old self described "Democratic Socialist" as president. When actual voters go to the polls I have no doubt that Hillary will win the nomination. As for the general election, various factors will come into play. How's the economy? Has there been a terrorist attack in U.S. soil? How are voters feeling about Democrats in general and Obama in particular? Who's the Republican nominee?

For the record, although I'm almost sure that Hillary will be the nominee, if I'm wrong and Sanders is the nominee I will vote for him.

[Robbins]

42. oh great

attacking bernie supporters as not actual voters

Bernie is best chance to win GE.he repersentes what dems are suspose to be about.he can appeal to non-dems.Independents,third partys,and republicans are changing to dems to support him.

bernie as nominee throws out the GOP script.just like obama in 2008.

[Beacool]

43. I'm not attacking his supporters.

I'm only stating what I believe: that a self proclaimed Socialist in his mid 70s will not win in a GE. That's my opinion and I'm entitled to it. I disagree that Sanders is the best option, and no, he's not Obama. The Democratic nominee was bound to win in 2008 after the Bush years (two wars and the economic collapse of 2007). The circumstances in 2016 are drastically different. Will voters be willing to hand a third term to the Democrats? Only time will tell.

[Hepburn]

47. They elected a Ronnie Raygun for his 2nd terms when he was 74 years old. n/t

[Beacool]

51. Second term, not first term.

We also know now that Reagan was in the beginning stages of Alzheimer's. Even at 69 there were questions about Reagan's age. I have said that Hillary is already pushing it at 69 too, but if Reagan could be elected at 69, so can she. It also helps that women live longer than men and if she stays as alert and healthy as her mother was into her 90s she will do OK. The stress of being president ages everybody. Clinton was a year younger than Obama was when he entered the WH and he left with more white hair than gray. Obama has gray hair too. Sanders would be 79 years old when he'd have to run for reelection.

[UglyGreed]

74. Yeah at 68 years old

that Hillary is such a whippersnapper..........

[treestar]

44. As someone pointed out, those polls are not

quite real yet. They describe imaginary contests as of now.

[Hepburn]

46. Nominate Hillary and we get...

...Prez tRump, Dr. Prez Carson, or how about Prez Cruz.

And we thought Dumbya was bad...OMG....

[MohRokTah]

48. You'll never convince me Sanders is electable.

Never.

Nominate him and I write off the presidency in 2016 because I believe the Republicans will win in a landslide. There will be no point in donating or campaigning because the race will be over.

[djean111]

53. And if a Bernie supporter feels that way about Hillary, and expresses it, then that is considered

against the TOS.

Typical.

[MohRokTah]

54. BS supporters say it all the time.

I see no need to waste money and campaigning effort on a doomed candidacy. I'll spend money and time on down ticket races where a difference can be made if by some weird miracle Sanders is nominated.

[thucythucy]

55. I hope you don't mean that.

If Senator Sanders is nominated I think it is the duty of every sane progressive to give it all they can to make sure he wins the general. The consequences of another GOP presidency are too awful even to contemplate for a moment.

As a Sanders supporter, I'll say the same thing about Secretary Clinton. Disappointed as I might be, I'll still do whatever I can (in my meager way) to help her win the general.

Too many people have too much on the line for any of us to sit this out.

[MohRokTah]

57. All I can give a Sanders nomination is a pencil mark next to his name on the GE ballot.

Sending money to the campaign or knocking on doors for him would be a waste of money and time, IMO, and would be better spent on down ticket races where the Democrat has an actual chance at winning.

[thucythucy]

59. Well, we all have to set priorities

and if yours is on local and state-wide races, so be it.

Personally I think Sanders, if he wins the nomination, has a good shot at winning the general. I know, I know, he hasn't yet faced the GOP shitstorm, but if the party unites behind him I think he can carry it off--particularly if the GOP nominee is a flaming douchebag, which is what the current climate indicates. Just my opinion, but there it is.

Then again, I cut my political teeth on the McGovern campaign. In fact, I STILL think we had a chance back then, until the Eagleton fiasco. Until then McGovern and Nixon were running neck and neck.

Anyway, whenever I think of a GOP presidency, I think of the Supreme Court, Social Security (I'm approaching retirement), the Middle East.... I honestly don't think this nation can survive another Republican president, especially not one of the current crop of delusional sociopaths.

Whatever happens, best wishes.

[Gothmog]

63. I will support the Democratic Nominee no matter what

I will vote for Sanders but I do not believe that he is viable and my money could help down ballot candidates.

[Gothmog]

60. How will Sanders compete in a general election campaign?

The OP does not satisfy the viability question in my mind. If it did, I would be opening an account in Ireland to place a bet on Sanders where I would get great odds. http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination Sanders does not appear to be viable in a contest where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the likely GOP nominee will be able to raise another billion dollars. This article had a very interesting quote about the role of super pacs in the upcoming election http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/03/bernie-sanders-grassroots-movement-gains-clinton-machine

Harvard University professor Lawrence Lessig, who founded a Super Pac to end Super Pacs, said Sanders’ renouncing Super Pacs is tantamount to “bringing a knife to a gunfight”.

“I regret the fact the Bernie Sanders has embraced the idea that he’s going to live life like the Vermont snow, as pure as he possibly can, while he runs for president, because it weakens his chances – and he’s an enormously important progressive voice,” Lessig said.

President Obama was against super pacs in 2012 but had to use one to keep the race close. I do not like super pacs but any Democratic candidate who wants to be viable has to use a super pac.

[FreakinDJ]

61. So thats why he kept Summers and Geithner in his cabinet

That is EXACTLY why folks here support Bernie

[Gothmog]

62. How does this explain explain how Sanders is viable in a general election contest?

According to the online quiz or poll, Sanders is closer to my views than Hillary Clinton. I live in the real world and I can get over the concept that Sanders is doomed to failure if he is the nominee. I keep asking for an explanation and so far I have seen nothing that convinces me that Sanders has a chance in the general election.

The premise of the OP was that Sanders is electable and that premise does not hold up when examined. If Sanders wants to expand his base of support, he needs to show that he can compete in a general election

[Enthusiast]

66. Kicked and recommended!

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

[raouldukelives]

68. K&R nt

[Betty Karlson]

69. The argument should be very much alive, only reversed:

for those who care about electability, Sanders should be their first preference, not Clinton!

[Dem2]

70. He polls well enough to support, for sure

I don't believe those polls would hold up after nomination, same with Hillary and even more so with the hapless Republicans - it will depend on the specific matchup and mood of the country months from now.

[ieoeja]

73. No it's not. If anything this offers *more* evidence that Hillary is unelectable. n/t