2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNovember 4, 2015 polls: Hillary 56, Sanders 35. November 1-4, 2007 polls: Hillary 50, Obama 22
Source: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-11-06-politics.htm, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
RandySF
(58,874 posts)were in the 2008 field at this point compared to now?
Fearless
(18,421 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)yes it is. There were other stronger candidates who supporters were in play. This time they are none. O'Malley isn't polling very big. Wherever his supporters go won't have big effects.
This is an illogical place to take comfort in. Yet it gets repeated over and over as some sort of mantra.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)If one is trying to be intellectually honest in this comparison that truly has no merit in the first place. Some people's understanding of statistics around here is horrifying.
Hepburn
(21,054 posts)...Sanders is not Barack Obama!
treestar
(82,383 posts)He does not have the ground game. He does not have other candidates whose supporters he might get when they drop out. He does not have the charisma or the speaking skill.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)... but also nothing like Obama.
They jump back and forth on this simple point.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)26 debates in the primary season for the 2008 nomination.
6 debates in in the primary season for the 2016 nomination.
So that no one will have as much chance to challenge Hillary Clinton's lead in the debates this time.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)His poll numbers just keep climbing!
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)RCP is 54.8 Clinton to 32.5 for Bernie. It appears you took the 56 for Clinton from one poll and the 35 for Sanders from another poll.
You then compared it to a single poll from 2007. But, wouldn't you know it, RCP also has records from then. And in an RCP to RCP comparison, on Nov 4th, 2007 Clinton was at 44.4 to 22.6 for Obama. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls
Well the spread seems pretty close, but you know, there is something else missing from your 2007 look. That would be the 15% support John Edwards had. Now, why would that be important? Well, when he left in January, his supporters moved to Obama, including his financial backers. So Obama had room to grow from other candidates at this point in 2007. O'Malley is barely registering as a possible source of absorption for Sanders.
I understand your desire to try and put the races in perspective but they are different races.
AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)8 years ago this time.
Segami
(14,923 posts)Response to AZ Progressive (Original post)
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