Occam's Razor: The reason it looks like Hillary is winning is that she is actually winning

[Godhumor]

Last edited Fri Nov 13, 2015, 01:37 AM - Edit history (2)

For anyone unaware, Occam's Razor is a theoretical posit that states that when there is more than one explanation for a result, the one with the fewest assumptions tends to be correct.

So what is the simplest explanation for Clinton leading at this stage of the campaign? She has the widest base of support. It is really that simple.

If you find yourself making more complex rationales involving, among things I've seen recently, electronic voting machines, superPAC dark money, managing to manipulate independent polling results, threatening potential endorsers, and so on, well, you're running afoul of the Razor.

Clinton is winning because people are supporting her more than they're supporting Sanders or O'Malley. Focus on that if you want to change the outcome of the primary, because that is what needs to be overcome.

Edit: apparently, a clarification is needed. My whole point is that Clinton is currently winning because people support her and not because of some conspiracy theory bullshit. So if you want Bernie or O'Malley to win you need to change those supporters' minds. I am surprised that this is apparently controversial.

[DanTex]

1. HA Goodman's razor: it's a conspiracy!

[RobertEarl]

15. Problem is

She has not won anything. In fact, last time she ran, she lost. Lost to someone relatively unknown.

But, hey, ya know what? If it makes yall feel good to say she is winning, go ahead. Doesn't make a whit of difference to the campaign, especially since 8 out of 10 of the people reading yall are Bernie supporters.

[NurseJackie]

19. Ha!! :-D

[UglyGreed]

2. yep just like in

2008, we all know how that worked out.

[VanillaRhapsody]

26. Did she have a 92% chance and 440 Super Delegates in

2008?

[artislife]

43. Another Hillary is inevitable meme...Drink!

This is making it so much more fun to read these kinds of OPs than before.

[daleanime]

3. Again with the already won....

I don't think so, sorry about that.

[Godhumor]

9. Pretty sure I kept everything in the present tense and not past

She is winning and she is winning because people support her. You want her to stop winning figure out how to change people's minds.

[daleanime]

16. If she's "winning because people support her"....

it's because it's the Money people supporting her. But we are not going to agree. Time to start dinner. Have a great day.

[upaloopa]

31. Now that is weird. When people answer poll

questions in Hillary's favor they are money people. Man I didn't know all those AA folks in NC were money people.

[1StrongBlackMan]

4. I would offer that accepting your posit and recommended area of focus ...

is problematic for many, as it would require, a recognition/acknowledgement of something they do not wish to recognize/acknowledge ... because recognizing it would undercut their world view.

[Blue_Adept]

6. And experts and those with knowledge and understanding of process are to be ignored

It's like we've fallen down the right wing rabbit hole in how we can't look at things critically in the right way anymore. Half of GDP feels like it needs a

[artislife]

44. Tinfoil hat meme....Drink!

[Fumesucker]

7. The same was said of Obama supporters in 2008

The whole Groundhog Day vibe of this election cycle is uncanny.

[1StrongBlackMan]

12. No ... It really wasn't. n/t

[Godhumor]

14. Apparently today is pretend 2015 is 2007 day

I started writing an analysis of why that isn't true but deleted it once I realized it would do no good.

[1StrongBlackMan]

25. Not being tethered to truth or facts must be sooo liberating. n/t

[saturnsring]

24. well of course everything is exactly the same now as it was then so therefore everything will

turn out the same

[Fumesucker]

5. Bang bang Occam's Silver Hammer came down on her head

[ibegurpard]

8. this changes nothing

About her being an awful candidate who just lies for no reason. Democrats convincing themselves she's great does nothing to change her liabilities and underwater negatives with the general public. We're not going to be running against Trump or Carson or Cruz. You can bank on that.
Full speed ahead to the iceberg!

[Zen Democrat]

10. Nobody is winning. Because no one has voted.

Hillary was "winning" in 2008, until the Iowa caucuses.

[artislife]

45. Oops, truth just stepped in...nt

[Comrade Grumpy]

11. Your OP is a tautology: Clinton is winning because she is winning.

I grant that Clinton is the most likely victor.

But why is she popular?

[Godhumor]

13. No: She is winning because more people support her.

That is not tautology.

[Electric Monk]

48. She has name recognition and the majority of Americans are low information voters.

She also has substantial negatives to go along with that, for the reality based.

[upaloopa]

32. We one reason she is popular is because she

is the most qualified person running to be President. It's like an interview and you are reading resumes. Hillary has the best resume.
Another reason is because people identify with her.
Another reason is because she is a strong independent woman
On and on

[aikoaiko]

17. Actually Occam said, "Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily."

But subsequently many scientists and philosophers riffed on Occam and came up with what you wrote.

In physics and other natural sciences, the razor refers to cutting away unnecessary explanations or parts of explanations of the physical world.

[merrily]

20. Occam's razor seems to be cited to try to convince us that all is exactly as it seems

on the surface or exactly as we've been told--until and until someone who thumbed his or her nose at Occam long enough to start investigating indisputably proves otherwise. Then, those who had theretofore been wielding Occam's razor to slice consideration of that issue suddenly scatter silently....until the next time.

As far as I am concerned, Godwin can * Occam's Razor and Occam can * Godwin's fake "Law." Both have become internet code for "I'm right and this is all I've got to 'prove' it, but sit down and shut up anyway."

[VanillaRhapsody]

27. And de ial is not a river in Egypt.

[bobbobbins01]

37. You are correct. De ial isn't even a river.

A lake maybe? A small creek off the Ivory Coast? Inquiring minds what to know!

[VanillaRhapsody]

38. Nor is denial...

Or denial of denial...

[bobbobbins01]

39. But what about denial of denial of denial?

Surely that must be a major body of water?

[deutsey]

21. +1

[merrily]

18. Congrats! What did she win? Or did you mean she's ahead in polls, much like this time in 2008?

[brooklynite]

22. Let's have an English lesson, shall we?

Imagine an athletic competition (let's call it a "race&quot . At any point in time, one competitor will be ahead of the others (yes it's possible to be tied at specific points, but overall, there will be someone ahead). That competitor is said to be "winning" the race. At the end, the person who crosses the finish line first is said to have "won" the race". It is possible that someone who, at some point in time was not "winning" the race actually "won" the race by catching up and passing the person who was previously "winning".

See how that works?

Now, as for Sanders, he is not now "winning" the race, and it is unlikely that he will have "won" the race because he's not catching up (and hasn't been since September) to the person who IS "winning" the race.

[VanillaRhapsody]

28. Did she have 440 SuperDelegates in June of 2008?

And how many dyd he have when he won?

484

[RoccoR5955]

23. So I think that I will just sit home

Because it is a predetermined fact that Clinton has won. Why should I even vote at all?

NOT!

Occam's Razor may be fine for some things, but this is NOT one of them. If we are to take back our country from the oligarchs, we have to revolt against them, and Bernie is the ONLY candidate who gives us this option.

I may ask, though the polls see Clinton as the Democratic candidate, how come so many of them see Sanders winning the general election by a wider margin than Clinton? Occam's Razor could have something to do with that too, as Bernie has had THE SAME MESSAGE, and worked for what he believes in FOREVER. This is not so for Clinton, who has her mind, sorry, whose opinion has "evolved" over time. People prefer someone who has had the steadfastness to stick to his/her goals, and not waver. ESPECIALLY Conservatives. (at least the ones I talk to).

So, what good will it do when Clinton is the candidate, and has trouble getting votes from these Conservatives, who would vote for Bernie? Doesn't anyone see further than the primary any more?

[VanillaRhapsody]

29. Only if what you really want is a Republican President

House and Senate as the outcome...

[99Forever]

30. Well then.

Since it's already over, Clinton doesn't need my support or vote or any from the multitude of fine Democrats I work with in Bernie's campaign.


Thanks for letting us know.

[thereismore]

33. Here's some more wisdom for you:

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

[Nonhlanhla]

34. It seems to me

It seems to me that the point of the OP was not that Hilary is inevitable and has already won, nor that Bernie supporters should give up and go home, but merely that Bernie supporters should recognize she is ahead in the polls (right now) because she has more support, and not because of some conspiracy or problem in the polls.

[tammywammy]

35. I thought that was pretty clear in the OP

But apparently many in the thread read it as "give up".

[Godhumor]

36. Thanks, I'm glad it was clear to some people

It was really more of a "go out there and change the situation instead of worrying about the invisible hand" type of thing.

I think the issue is I am a known HRC supporter and started with the statement that she is winning. Might be hard to read past the intro at that point....

Hmm.

[artislife]

46. And the point of such an OP?

tick, tock.

Yeah...this OP isn't like a time check, just so we all know where we are. They have OPs with polls. This is a meme that has been repeated since May.

But she was ahead in 2007 and lost, and we believe she will lose again.

[MrMickeysMom]

40. I actually think your comparative theory makes a lot of sense...

In total, there IS a wider base. Within the total, the numbers are comprised of everyone who is seated in front of a television set, reads the news, and hears commentary. That's a wide base.

It's also a good baseline to keep evaluating, which is exactly what is happening within a growing subset of people who consume news. Within seven months, much has changed. I'm simply saying that you should continue the experiment. It has not reached it's endpoint.

IOW... don't count those chickens, right?

[Fawke Em]

41. If so, the country is losing. eom

[Cha]

42. And, the Planet is Winning!

[lovemydog]

47. Love this thread. Where most

accuse each other of being insane, deranged, sold out or ignorant.

Great work folks. I'm learning a lot here!