I just purchased Allan Lictman's latest 13 keys for 2012 he's predicting Obama will win 55% vote

[bigdarryl]

thats 55% of the popular vote if that happens thats a landslide

[Dawson Leery]

1. If we GOTV and bring enough women to the polls, it is possible.

The next question is, how many people will vote third party. Will it be more than 2%? Only election day will tell.

[TroyD]

3. Is that new?

I know he made a prediction in 2011 that Obama was going to win based on how many 'keys' (eg. categories) he was ahead in, but is this a new updated projection from Summer 2012?

Btw, the 55% popular vote number is nice, but it seems too good to be true. That would be more than the 53% Obama got in 2008, and that was in a very bad year for the Republicans.

Nate Silver is projecting Obama to get between 50-51% right now.

[bigdarryl]

7. Not new he comes out with a updated edition of his book before

every Presidential election at least a year before the election

[bigdarryl]

4. His 13 keys system has nothing to do with getting out the vote

he said Obama could sit down and not campaign for the next days until election and still win the popular vote.He said all these Conventions are a waste of money and time he predicted Obama would win the popular vote as far back as 2010 right after the Affordable Health care Law was passed. http://www.american.edu/media/news/20100712_Lichtman_Predicts_Obama_Wins_Reelection_2012.cfm

[LiberalEsto]

2. Do you know Lichtman's track record on predictions?

I'd be interested to see that.

[bigdarryl]

5. He's predicted the popular vote in elections since Reagan

he was even right with Gore winning the popular vote except the the Supreme Court stole Florida for Bush

[TroyD]

8. Isn't 55% very optimistic?

Wouldn't that take a Romney meltdown?

Romney would have to do worse than McCain.

When does he project that Obama will go up to 55%? At some point during September or October?

[Dawson Leery]

6. His formula works retroactively back to 1860.

[tech3149]

9. I heard him on an interview over the weekend. He makes a lot of sense.

I may have to pick up the book to try and get a better understanding of his thought processes. His basic premise makes sense but he didn't discuss the influence of media disinformation.

[thelordofhell]

10. Mainstream Media..........HELLOOOO!!!

*chirp**chirp**chirp**chirp**chirp**chirp**chirp**chirp*

[Kablooie]

11. I sure hope that happens and teaches the GOP a lesson.

They need to learn that extremism, obstructionism and lying is not the path to leadership success.

Though many Americans still believe it is and vote for these policies.

[TroyD]

12. Where do we get the book?

Is it just an ordinary book that one can purchase at places like Amazon etc.?

[bigdarryl]

15. AMAZON!!!!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

13. Allan is a very credible statistician!! I'm more inclined to believe him, and...

I hope to God that he's right.

[Dawson Leery]

14. kick

[WI_DEM]

16. I think Obama will win but if he took 55% he'd be winning states like Indiana and other

red/purple states.