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demwing

(16,916 posts)
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:06 PM Nov 2015

WSJ Poll: Bernie Sanders Won Debate



http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-44-of-democrats-think-bernie-sanders-won-debate-1447609672

The survey, conducted for The Wall Street Journal by Google Consumer Surveys, polled 836 Democratic primary voters by displaying questions to people who visit a set of online news and entertainment websites. The Internet users were asked to answer the questions in exchange for access to those sites.

Democratic primary voters who answered the questions said that, based on the debate, Mr. Sanders was the candidate who could best handle the job of president and was best suited to improving the economy.

A substantial 58% judged Mr. Sanders as the candidate “who best understands the problems facing people like you,’’ compared with 27% who chose Mrs. Clinton and 4% who named Mr. O’Malley.
<snip>
The margin of error in the survey varied for each question but in all cases was below plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. In conducting the poll, Google Consumer Surveys infers a respondent’s gender, age, and geographic location based on anonymous browsing history and other data. On mobile devices, people answer questions in exchange for credits for books, music, and apps, and answer demographic questions when first downloading the app.

But what is this "Google Consumer Surveys" you ask?

Only the 2nd most accurate pollsters of the 2014 election, according to Nate Silver:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

UPDATE: More from Nate Silver on ONLINE POLLS in 2014:

Among the nine polling firms that conducted their polls wholly or partially online, the average error in calling the election result was 2.1 percentage points. That compares with a 3.5-point error for polling firms that used live telephone interviewers, and 5.0 points for “robopolls” that conducted their surveys by automated script. The traditional telephone polls had a slight Republican bias on the whole, while the robopolls often had a significant Republican bias. (Even the automated polling firm Public Policy Polling, which often polls for liberal and Democratic clients, projected results that were slightly more favorable for Mr. Romney than what he actually achieved.) The online polls had little overall bias, however.
<snip>

Perhaps it won’t be long before Google, not Gallup, is the most trusted name in polling.



58 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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WSJ Poll: Bernie Sanders Won Debate (Original Post) demwing Nov 2015 OP
Clearly the Wall St. Journal is "in the tank" for Bernie. Wait? What? The Wall St. Journal??? 99th_Monkey Nov 2015 #1
WSJ + Bernie? SusanCalvin Nov 2015 #2
Where is the link to the poll? MohRokTah Nov 2015 #3
Here's the link to the WSJ article: Wilms Nov 2015 #4
thanks demwing Nov 2015 #10
It's an online poll SharonClark Nov 2015 #5
Yep, you were polled to gain access to certain web sites. MohRokTah Nov 2015 #6
You're wrong about the quality of this polling. As the OP noted... kristopher Nov 2015 #39
No, I'm not MohRokTah Nov 2015 #40
Yes, you are. kristopher Nov 2015 #42
mmmm, member since yesterday. wonder who paid you litlbilly Nov 2015 #7
Not yesterday. September 26th 2015. SusanCalvin Nov 2015 #12
At 183 posts - pot meet kettle. marble falls Nov 2015 #15
Pot: Member since 2012. artislife Nov 2015 #24
Who the hell would pay for a product like that? Scootaloo Nov 2015 #19
NOt according to Nate Silver demwing Nov 2015 #8
I believe this is the same poll that had Bernie winning last time. DCBob Nov 2015 #9
There's no reason to automatically favor landline polls over internet polls. reformist2 Nov 2015 #14
The big polling firms don't use landlines exclusively. DCBob Nov 2015 #18
In favor of people who get the internet. I see. artislife Nov 2015 #25
When I'm polled by land line madokie Nov 2015 #37
Heh! nt artislife Nov 2015 #41
Depends on the poll. jeff47 Nov 2015 #48
Here's a link to the article Jarqui Nov 2015 #11
you call it an error - I call it a correction in bias /nt demwing Nov 2015 #20
Something that explains some of the discrepancies I've seen ... Jarqui Nov 2015 #23
what you saw was not a discrepancy demwing Nov 2015 #43
online polls. moobu2 Nov 2015 #13
Two words. No reasoning. So wow. reformist2 Nov 2015 #16
Cute RandySF Nov 2015 #17
Content? paleotn Nov 2015 #28
In WSJ best interest if the Socialist is the nominee. That much I am certain of, or at least randys1 Nov 2015 #51
Wow! Can't read the article behind the pay wall. Did the respondents watch the debate? hedda_foil Nov 2015 #21
Yes. Jarqui Nov 2015 #22
Bernie won the first debate also, despite the msm's delusions. Dont call me Shirley Nov 2015 #26
No. I'm sure all the donations he got immediately after the debate were pity cash. winter is coming Nov 2015 #44
... Dont call me Shirley Nov 2015 #49
When WSJ admits it, Bernie is really winning! Demeter Nov 2015 #27
of course he won marym625 Nov 2015 #29
It's nice to see it acknowledged in the MSM demwing Nov 2015 #30
Yes, it sure is! marym625 Nov 2015 #32
Gallup hasn't been a trustworthy poll in at least a decade. Jack Rabbit Nov 2015 #31
Good News - As We All Know - The Truth cantbeserious Nov 2015 #33
Thanks for some good news Cheese Sandwich Nov 2015 #34
Don't let 'em get you down! demwing Nov 2015 #50
Of course, the WSJ and the rest of the rightwing want to see Sanders win - they're terrified of... George II Nov 2015 #35
That is the exact opposite of what are the facts. zeemike Nov 2015 #36
They asked the right questions. Who can best understand jwirr Nov 2015 #38
K&R Segami Nov 2015 #45
K&R. eom Betty Karlson Nov 2015 #46
Bernie Was 100% on point. nt kristopher Nov 2015 #47
Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2015 #52
I'm honored that your first post demwing Nov 2015 #53
lol. curious. nt Snotcicles Nov 2015 #54
Hey, I'm in a good mood tonight demwing Nov 2015 #55
Hey now, don't get to carried away. Snotcicles Nov 2015 #56
Sad thing is you're right demwing Nov 2015 #57
It's hard get irritated on a day like today. Go Bernie. nt Snotcicles Nov 2015 #58
 

99th_Monkey

(19,326 posts)
1. Clearly the Wall St. Journal is "in the tank" for Bernie. Wait? What? The Wall St. Journal???
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:10 PM
Nov 2015

This really is hella-awesome news.

GO BERNIE!!!!

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
3. Where is the link to the poll?
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:11 PM
Nov 2015

Please provide the link. What you have provided is worthless without a direct link.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
6. Yep, you were polled to gain access to certain web sites.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:21 PM
Nov 2015

Nothing at all scientific about that polling methodology. It can give some broader indications, though, which is how the WSJ presented the results. There was no specific winner or loser, rather winners in various categories.

For example, Hillary wins when considering who is best equipped to handle terrorist threats according to this poll. Sanders wins as the person who best understands the respondent's problems.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
39. You're wrong about the quality of this polling. As the OP noted...
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 08:14 PM
Nov 2015

And this information confirms:

The emergence and evolution of online polling has left in its wake a sense of disdain by many informed people for polls emerging from that platform.
While that feeling is a legitimate response to the traditional internet polling conducted alongside some local news clickbait piece of sensationalistic 'journalism', there has emerged serious methods that deserve serious consideration as we move forward.
We've seen a fair amount of this polling already this primary season and we will undoubtedly be seeing a tremendous amount in the months ahead. This information is provided to help DUers place the results of that polling in its context. You might want to bookmark this for dealing with the inevitable disagreements about validity.

From Google:

Comparing Google Consumer Surveys to Existing Probability and Non-Probability Based Internet Surveys
Paul McDonald, Matt Mohebbi, Brett Slatkin Google Inc.
Abstract
This study compares the responses of a probability based Internet panel, a non-probability based Internet panel and Google Consumer Surveys against several media consumption and health benchmarks. The Consumer Surveys results were found to be more accurate than both the probability and non-probability based Internet panels in three separate measures: average absolute error (distance from the benchmark), largest absolute error, and percent of responses within 3.5 percentage points of the benchmark. These results suggest that despite differences in survey methodology, Consumer Surveys can be used in place of more traditional Internet based panels without sacrificing accuracy.
http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/static/consumer_surveys_whitepaper.pdf


From Pew Research Center:
A Comparison of Results from Surveys by the Pew Research Center and Google Consumer Surveys
NOVEMBER 7, 2012
<snip>
Pew Research and Google Comparisons

From May to October, 2012, the Pew Research Center compared results for more than 40 questions asked in dual frame telephone surveys to those obtained using Google Consumer Surveys. Questions across a variety of subject areas were tested, including: demographic characteristics, technology use, political attitudes and behavior, domestic and foreign policy and civic engagement. Across these various types of questions, the median difference between 43 results obtained from Pew Research surveys and using Google Consumer Surveys was 3 percentage points. The mean difference was 6 points, which was a result of several sizeable differences that ranged from 10-21 points and served to increase the mean difference.

Differences between the Pew Research surveys and Google results occur for a number of reasons. Given that Google Consumer Surveys does not use a true probability sampling method, and its sampling frame is not of the general public, differences in the composition of the sample are potentially of greatest concern. A comparison of several demographic questions asked by Pew Research indicates that the Google Consumer Surveys sample appears to conform closely to the demographic composition of the overall internet population. Communication device ownership and internet use also aligns well for most, though not all, questions. In addition, there is little evidence so far that the Google Consumer Surveys sample is biased toward heavy internet users.

Some of the differences between results obtained from the two methodologies can be attributed to variations in how the questions were structured and administered. During the evaluation period, we typically tried to match the question wording and format. However, some exceptions had to be made since many of the questions were part of longstanding Pew Research trends and had to be modified to fit within the Google Consumer Surveys limits and the different mode of administration (online self-administered vs. interview-administered by telephone).

The context in which questions are asked could also explain some of the differences; questions in Pew Research surveys are asked as part of a larger survey in which earlier questions may influence those asked later in the survey. By contrast, only one or two questions are administered at a time to the same respondents in the Google Consumer Surveys method.

The Google Consumer Surveys method is a work in progress and the Pew Research Center’s evaluation began shortly after its inception and continued for six months. The testing is ongoing, and we will continue to evaluate their methodology.
<snip>
http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/07/a-comparison-of-results-from-surveys-by-the-pew-research-center-and-google-consumer-surveys/



List of some recent Google research on their survey methods and analysis.
http://research.google.com/pubs/MarioCallegaro.html

SusanCalvin

(6,592 posts)
12. Not yesterday. September 26th 2015.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:26 PM
Nov 2015

I don't normally called out low-count posters (we all were once), but this post does seem kinda knee-jerk.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
8. NOt according to Nate Silver
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:22 PM
Nov 2015
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Instead, some of the most accurate firms were those that conducted their polls online.

The final poll conducted by Google Consumer Surveys had Mr. Obama ahead in the national popular vote by 2.3 percentage points – very close to his actual margin, which was 2.6 percentage points based on ballots counted through Saturday morning.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
14. There's no reason to automatically favor landline polls over internet polls.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:28 PM
Nov 2015

Depending on the methodology used, you can get good (or bad) results from either kind of poll. And by "good" or "bad", I mean numbers that hold up on election day...

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
18. The big polling firms don't use landlines exclusively.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:31 PM
Nov 2015

Its usually a mix to make it more representative. Online polls are inherently biased.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
37. When I'm polled by land line
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 08:01 PM
Nov 2015

I almost always give bullshit answers
Most times the polls are push polls so I figure whats good for the goose is good for the gander

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
48. Depends on the poll.
Mon Nov 16, 2015, 10:54 AM
Nov 2015

Read the methodology. Often "the big polling firms" are landline only. Or even robopoll.

Meanwhile, there's more than one "online poll". Some are scientific, some are not.

paleotn

(17,730 posts)
28. Content?
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 07:10 PM
Nov 2015

...or do you just out of hand dismiss that which doesn't affirm your preconceived notions? If true, that explains a lot.

randys1

(16,286 posts)
51. In WSJ best interest if the Socialist is the nominee. That much I am certain of, or at least
Mon Nov 16, 2015, 05:14 PM
Nov 2015

that they think that.

Now I know he is a Democratic Socialist like I am, but that isnt what they will say.

hedda_foil

(16,360 posts)
21. Wow! Can't read the article behind the pay wall. Did the respondents watch the debate?
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:44 PM
Nov 2015

If so, that's even better.

Jarqui

(10,078 posts)
22. Yes.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 05:57 PM
Nov 2015

Last time, they asked about 6,000 people until they found about 1,000 who claimed they had watched the debate

marym625

(17,997 posts)
29. of course he won
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 07:11 PM
Nov 2015

Just like he won the first debate. Though Clinton was abysmal in the second debate.

George II

(67,782 posts)
35. Of course, the WSJ and the rest of the rightwing want to see Sanders win - they're terrified of...
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 07:31 PM
Nov 2015

...Hillary Clinton and know she'd destroy whatever clown they come up with as their nominee.

zeemike

(18,998 posts)
36. That is the exact opposite of what are the facts.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 07:56 PM
Nov 2015

The GOP's best chance is with Clinton because all Republicans and many independents will vote against her in mass.

There is two things that will bring people to the polls, someone to vote for or someone to vote against...if the GOP has no one to vote for they will have someone to vote against with Hillary.

jwirr

(39,215 posts)
38. They asked the right questions. Who can best understand
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 08:04 PM
Nov 2015

the problems and handle them for people like us. That easily describes how I feel about Bernie. I usually ignore polls but this one hits the feelings.

Response to demwing (Original post)

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
53. I'm honored that your first post
Thu Nov 19, 2015, 07:35 PM
Nov 2015

Was in response to this thread. Welcome to DU!

(Yeah, I know we disagree, but fuck it )

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
55. Hey, I'm in a good mood tonight
Thu Nov 19, 2015, 07:42 PM
Nov 2015

After watching Bernie's speech. I can afford a little socialist civility

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
57. Sad thing is you're right
Thu Nov 19, 2015, 08:00 PM
Nov 2015

And it's likely that this new sly bugger will be on my iggy list all too soon.

But for tonight, he/she is just a prole like you and me.

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