Rammussen, Romney up by 3 points, Obama has average of 0.3

[geekboy09]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[Panasonic]

1. Raz is R-leaning

so it'll be corrected probably in three days.

Dead cat bounce for Rmoney.

[flamingdem]

31. dead chair bounce nt

[MADem]

2. Rasmussen. I don't believe them at all. They're never right--they loved McCain to pieces. nt

[russspeakeasy]

3. and crazy for palin.

[Sheepshank]

4. The best Rassy could muster is a 3 pt post GNC bump for Romney? Ain't that just too bad n/t

[rbrnmw]

5. That is a humiliating Post Convention bounce

if Ramm reports it it must be closer to +1 than +3

[geekboy09]

6. I don't know. Gotta bad feeling about this.

[MADem]

7. Oh, I'll just bet you do.

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. ROFL

Whatevs, Geekboy.

Welcome, BTW.

[Cha]

9. Where's DUer "geektragedy" when

ya need him?!

[Drahthaardogs]

22. Hmmmm, bad feeling indeed.

I smell pizza!

[WI_DEM]

14. we can see thru your 'bad feeling' geek boy

[11 Bravo]

16. Oh DAMN! You're right! WE'RE DOOMED! We probably shouldn't even bother to VOTE!

[GallopingGhost]

19. I do too.

I have an EXTREMELY bad feeling about Romney and Ryan.

[Ikonoklast]

37. I'm with you on this one, it looks bad for Romney and his shit-heel supporters.

They are starting to panic.

Makes me smile at their discomfiture.


Here's a little help, you might need it, I know it's a big word...

http://thesaurus.com/browse/discomfiture

[Jennicut]

17. Raz had it up as Obama +3 before the debacle that was the RNC.

Then he put Romney up +3. Very clever, isn't it, to look like a 6 point bounce. In reality, I bet Mittens got nothing out of that joke of a convention.

[woolldog]

20. Normally I don't buy into all the polling conspiracy theories

floating around DU, but the thought crossed my mind when Rass had Obama suddenly at +3 right before the convention, that he was setting it up for a large bounce to make headlines and generate some momentum in the press for Romney.

I don't trust Rassmusen, esp after the weird polls he came out with in Missouri.

Gallup, which I trust more has Obama approval rating at the lowest I've seen recently at 43 approval though.

[Jennicut]

34. Per Nate Silver, Gallup has been the most Repup leaning poll

during this election cycle. These are numbers for July so that might have changed. http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002843302
Gallup has been worse then Rasmussen and so has Washington Post. I am not sure what their weighting method is right now.
I take every poll, even those positive for President Obama, with a grain of salt. The only poll that really matters is on election day, right?

[BlueStreak]

32. Ras puts out all sorts of wacky polls

throughout the campaign season, and some of them seem to have some purposes in mind other than just telling the facts. What you will find is that their last results before the election will probably be pretty straight up so that they can point to that the next time and say "see, we were as close as anybody else."

They aren't the only ones with suspicious results. Sometimes PPP seems to do the same thing for Democrats. It is all part of the game in post-factual America.

[NashvilleLefty]

10. Rasmussen weights their polls (incorrectly), and are almost always

5 points off in Republican's favor. For instance, Ras says Romney is +3, that means that actually Obama is +2. Well within the MOE, but we haven't seen the Dem Convention bump yet.

Still close enough for the Republicans to steal. We need to really GOTV.

[grantcart]

11. You see we already knew that

In fact we knew it before the convention even took place.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125178437

I got Rasmussens numbers with a point.

Do you think that he even bothered calling anyone?

Two other polls show no bounce for Romney, but they are not tied to the Republican propoganda machine like your friends

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/01/two_polls_show_no_bounce_for_romney.html

[center rising]

12. Should be a rule on here not to post Rasmussen results

Numbers are simply skewed Republican and wrong!!

[WI_DEM]

13. and Gallup and Reuters aren't showing any bump

[woolldog]

21. look at Obama's approval rating in Gallup.

approval rating has a 3 day rolling average and it's at new lows, so that indicates there will be some bump.

[bigdarryl]

15. Ras will be on FIXED NEWS all week talking about this bullshit poll which means nothing

he works for FOX NEWS My take is if its not Nate Silver or PPP polling IGNORE every other polling Nate and PPP are usually right on even after the votes are cast

[Jamaal510]

18. Forget the polls; all that matters is the electoral college numbers.

[Zoeisright]

23. Real clear politics?

That shit doesn't belong on this site.

[greiner3]

24. "Real clear politics?"

???????

Is your reference to 'politics that is real,' or the web site, RealClearPolitics?

Either way, I do not see why you are all worked up.

If it is the former, are you saying DU members are full of 'shit?'

Or if the latter, RealClearPolitics, is full of it.

Either way, I take umbrage. Both are, IMO, great sites to get political info that is concise and, for the most part (sorry DU, sometimes...), accurate.

[Freddie]

35. RealClearPolitics

Is about 2/3 right-leaning stuff
I've learned what's not "safe" to click on simply by the name of the publication.

[TroyD]

25. Gallup - Obama (+1) for the 5th day in a row

I think today is about the 5th or 6th day in a row that Obama has been ahead of Romney in Gallup.

[Deep13]

26. Wait a week. nt

[demosincebirth]

27. CBS/quinapiac poll has Obama with a 6 point lead in Ohio and hasn't changed since last month.

[TroyD]

28. Ohio poll?

Is the Ohio poll you're talking about a new one that came out today, or are you talking about the one that came out a couple of weeks ago?

[demosincebirth]

36. You are right. It said a week ago. Has it changed?

[Lasher]

29. Rasmussen is a Fox News toadie.

Rasmussen and Bias

After the 2010 elections, the New York Times statistics wizard, Nate Silver, analyzed the polls produced by various polling organizations, including Rasmussen Reports, which is the house pollster for Fox News. Silver's analysis covered only polls taken during the final three weeks of the campaign and compared them to the actual election results. For polls taken much earlier, say in June, no one knows what the true sentiment of the electorate was, so there is no way to tell if the polls were accurate or not. Also, any pollster deliberately falsifying the results for partisan advantage would be advised to reduce the bias as the election neared. After all, no one can tell if a June poll is accurate but everyone can tell if a poll released the day before the election is accurate.

Silver analyzed 105 polls released by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, for Senate and gubernatorial races in numerous states across the country. The bottom line is that on average, Rasmussen's polls were off by 5.8% with a bias of 3.9% in favor of the Republican candidates.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/rasmussen.html

[regnaD kciN]

30. "with a bias of 3.9% in favor of the Republican candidates."

So, does that mean Obama is really up by 0.9%?

[Lasher]

38. Yes, that's probably an accurate assumption.

Consider the RCP Average. There we see Obama is ahead by 0.1%, even though the biased Rasmussen poll is included.

[budkin]

33. CROFL @ Convention "bounce"

Hahahaha