More Critical Newer New Hampshire State Poll - Sanders 45%, Clinton 44%

[Attorney in Texas]

The Hill: "Sanders ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire poll":

Sanders garners 45 percent support, to 44 percent for Clinton. ... Sanders has a much more comfortable lead among young people in the Granite State poll, carrying the under-45 vote with 59 percent, to 30 percent for Clinton.

?

[Jackilope]

1. Go, Bernie, Go!!!!!! :-) eom

[Agschmid]

2. NH is a tight race that's for sure.

It's going to be won on the margin by whomever is the winner.

Get to work if you live in/near that state if you want your candidate to win.

[Jarqui]

3. If Bernie can claw his way back in Iowa,

then we have a horse race!

I think Iowa is where this could get decided. To avoid an early knock out, if Sanders supporters are going to volunteer, that's where I'd try to help.

[demwing]

4. IA happens at least a week before NH

A NH win would bolster him in IA, but an IA loss will put significant pressure on the NH outcome.

Bernie needs both but can work with 1. If Bernie has to lose one (he doesn't...), I would ask the gods to deliver IA, and let NH fall.

And then for Jessie Jackson to endorse in the month before SC.

[DCBob]

5. Faux Newz poll

[BlueCheese]

10. FOX News is terrible, of course.

But I think their polling plays it straight.

[Samantha]

6. And this is exactly why the attacks against him have racheted up

He said he was going to focus first on Iowa and New Hampshire. After a certain point, he said he was starting to gear up for super-Tuesday. I think one of the two, he will be be doing super well.

Sam

[Happenstance24]

7. Is it enough to skate by?

Even if Bernie has retaken the lead, does that really help him out though? Bernie needs to win IA and NH BIG to have a chance, am I right? If he eeks out a 2 point win in both states it isn't gonna do jack for him down the line. The whole point of winning these states is to gather momentum and prove Hillary is beatable. A 2 point win in the whitest states in the country won't do much for him. Bernie needs a BIG win to change the conversation IMO.

[Attorney in Texas]

8. Polls this far our are just a report card. It is too early to ask if a lead within the margin of

error is enough. Between now and the NH primary, Sanders and Clinton and O'Malley will all go up and they will all go down.

[Codeine]

11. Good news for Sanders. If he keeps this "poll position"

then he will almost certainly take the state with relative ease.

Sanders supporters are a bit delusional to think that their youth vote margin (which I will grant them doesn't show up in likely voter polls) will make up for the 20%+ gap that we are seeing in so many states but it would certainly be enough to pull out a comfortable win in a situation like we see in NH.

And a good showing in NH could have positive follow-on benefits, assuming his inevitable crushing defeat in SC doesn't kill any perceived momentum.

[BlueCheese]

9. Flattering pictures of both candidates?

A breath of fresh air. Thanks, OP.

[Dem2]

12. Huffpo polling tracker hasn't been updated for 3 days

So, neither new or newer, I don't like click-bait - this is not a new poll.

[stevenleser]

13. All she needs to do is stay within a few points of him in NH. Her Iowa win will carry over into NH

And provide a bump of at least 10-15 points.

[Codeine]

14. 10-15 points seems. . . optimistic.

Wildly optimistic, even -- and that from a Clinton supporter.

[stevenleser]

15. Nope, in 2008, Obama's win in Iowa made NH 10-15 points closer than it had been polling.

Not optimistic. History and empirical analysis.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html#polls

And had Obama not made the "You're likeable enough" comment, he would have won NH by 5 points or so.

[Codeine]

16. Things seemed more volatile then.

Perhaps I'm just overestimating how settled everyone is at this point.

[book_worm]

17. Wasn't Bernie at one time up by more than one-point in NH?

[firebrand80]

18. Yes, the NH polls have tightened

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Yes

By as much as 22% at one time:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

[DCBob]

19. The fact this is so close is good news for Hillary.

NH should have been an easy win for Bernie.

[Attorney in Texas]

21. A close race is generally good for Clinton. The "coronation" some of her short-sighted supporters

crave does her campaign no good in the long run.

[DCBob]

22. I was just referring to NH.

The rest of the states with recent polling all trending substantially towards Hillary.

[Attorney in Texas]

23. It will be close in New Hampshire and in Iowa and the later primaries cannot be accurately predicted

because the outcome in Iowa and New Hampshire has historically affected the subsequent primaries.

Clinton is the favorite and Sanders is the underdog, but the pathway for a Sanders victory requires two things:

1. a Sanders win in Iowa or New Hampshire;

2. overconfidence plus a sense of entitlement on the part of the Clinton campaign as was her downfall in 2007-2008.

I think the Sanders campaign has got goal number one, but we may need your help with goal number two.

[DCBob]

24. Iowa doesnt appear to be close.. unless the polls are totally wrong.

Therefore your number 1 is unlikely and your number 2 is a complete fantasy.

See latest Iowa Huffington Post/Pollster chart below in case you may not have seen it. Your comments seem to indicate that you may not be aware Hillary is well ahead there now.