Sanders leads New Hampshire, he's seen as change candidate and his approach to Wall Street preferred

[Attorney in Texas]

"In both Iowa and New Hampshire, Democrats see Sanders as more of a change candidate; they are more likely to think Sanders would bring 'big change' to the country."

Current polling also shows more voters prefer Sanders' approach to Wall Street regulation and find Clinton too closely tied to Wall Street:

Clinton has been criticized as being too close to Wall Street. In Iowa and New Hampshire, her policies are viewed as being too easy on Wall Street, while Sanders' policies New Hampshire are seen as about right. Fifty-three percent in Iowa feel her policies might be too easy, and forty-four percent say they'll be about right. Seven in ten feel Sanders' policies would be right, in their view.

If you were to read the title of the news story reporting this great-news-for-Sanders polling, you'd get the impression that this polling was good news for a different candidate.

[NCTraveler]

1. Hard to believe she is within the MOE in NH.

I really thought this was one for Sanders. Hasn't Clinton closed in even more since this outfits last poll?

[NCTraveler]

2. Hillary Clinton extends Iowa lead, narrows Sanders' lead in NH

Headline of article.

[Attorney in Texas]

3. Odd headline given the polling shows Clinton lagging in NH and a tight race in Iowa and the

voters' mistrust of Clinton on the issue of Wall Street regulation.

[NCTraveler]

5. Why would you find a one hundred percent accurate headline to be odd.

Clinton is closing in one Sanders or expanding her lead according to this poll. It also shows she is within the MOE in NH. Why do you find an accurate headline to be "odd."

I have seen Sanders supporters call smaller percentage increases for Sanders a "surge."

[Attorney in Texas]

8. Because this polling is better news for Sanders than Clinton, and the headline suggests otherwise

[NCTraveler]

9. So, if Clinton gains ground or expands her lead.....

it's good news for Sanders. I couldn't make this shit up on my best day. Losing ground in polls is now good news for Sanders. I love this.

[Attorney in Texas]

13. Sanders is winning NH and Iowa is within the margin of error and voters prefer Sanders' approach to

regulating Wall Street and Sanders is seen as the candidate of real change.

Yes. This is -- in fact -- good news for the Sanders campaign, but if you are happy about this polling, you are also welcome to celebrate. Dance like no one is watching.

[NurseJackie]

15. "She clicks her vote in the online poll, and you'll never believe what happens next."

[NCTraveler]

17. lol. I don't get the excitement of losing ground in a poll. I'm just laughing here.

I guess this is a high point.

[CoffeeCat]

14. Obama won the Iowa caucuses, and was behind by 10 at this point!

I am absolutely over the moon about these numbers. The Clinton campaign must be fit to be tied.

Sanders is only behind by 6 in Iowa. This is earth shattering!!!

According to an American Research Group poll, Clinton was ahead by 10 in Iowa at this point (October 26, 2014).

Obama won the caucuses and he was farther behind Clinton at a comparable time. Sanders truly is poised to win the Iowa caucuses.

What a blow to the Clinton camp. Given her name recognition and "inevitability" and Bernie starting out in Iowa at 4 percent last spring.

This is amazing!!! Only 6 points!!!

And Iowa has yet to fell the full brunt of the Sanders campaign. He hasn't even peaked yet. He'll be filling indoor arenas with 10,000+ people. Hillary's peak happened long ago--starting out strong with name recognition and her "inevitability" being touted by the media.

I went through all of this in Iowa in 2008.

I just never thought that Sanders would be doing better than Obama was--this soon.

This bodes extremely well for Sanders. Best news of the campaign, thus far--in my opinion.

[NCTraveler]

16. Behind by six and losing ground according to this poll.

And the comparisons of Obama and Sanders are a complete joke. Sorry, they just are.

I do love your enthusiasm though. I have just never seen people get so excited over losing ground in a poll. Literally losing ground.

[CoffeeCat]

19. I am from Iowa...

....and I have been following the polls.

You say that Sanders is losing ground in Iowa. But this latest poll has Sanders losing only by 6.

I don't ever recall seeing a poll where Sanders was only behind by 3 or 4 in Iowa.

Was this poll ever discussed here on DU?

Did I just totally miss it?

I'm sorry, but bottom line is that this 2015 Democratic primary is following the same trajectory as 2008. Sanders started out at 4 percent in Iowa, just like Obama did in 08.

Obama slowly gained ground and decreased Hilalry's lead, but never this early. At this point, Obama was
behind by 10, according to American Research Group (October 26, 2008).

The comparisons are about the trajectory. And the comparisons are valid because Hillary was in the race in 2008 and she's in it now. The dynamics are worthy of comparison because Iowa has a very static attitude toward Hillary. She does not play well here. Her style of campaigning does not jive well with the Iowa caucuses. She comes into the state, riding on name recognition and inevitability and slowly that erodes.

I'm not saying that Sanders is Obama. No way. I'm saying that when a "change candidate" campaigns in Iowa, they are able to easily erode Hillary's lead.

It happened in 08 and it's happening again. The nearly identical dynamics are undeniable.

[Attorney in Texas]

21. They are trying very hard to make lemonade out of this poll. Who can blame them? 2015 is looking

more and more like 2007 so I can see why they are spinning as hard as they can to put lipstick on this polling.

[CoffeeCat]

27. It is amazing...I used to work in public relations...

...and I haven't seen this much spinning since I ran major campaigns.

I am so giddy about these new numbers.

Sanders is going to win the Iowa caucuses. I'm convinced of it now.

The best is yet to come. Bernie is going to attract very large crowds, in the same way that Obama did. It's going to be paradigm-shifting for the campaigns in Iowa. Inevitability goes straight out the window for Hillary, and the optics, with Sanders' 10,000+ crowds will further erode the soft support she has in Iowa.

People will be defecting to Sanders in droves. Iowa has a very, very strong progressive contingent within the Democratic party. They came through for Obama in 2008 and put Clinton in the backseat (as they did in 2008 with her 3rd place in the Iowa caucuses).

Iowans will again do the same.

I was waiting for a poll that showed Sanders within 10. He's within 6. Such awesome news.

[Attorney in Texas]

31. The caucuses depend so much on enthusiasm as much as raw numbers that I also feel good about Iowa.

New Hampshire puts such a premium on authenticity because the candidates do a ton of retail politicking there that I feel equally good in New Hampshire.

Looking at the two states and Sanders' steady and gradual rise in the national polls makes me feel like this campaign is where it needs to be right now: good continual progress without peaking too early.

[CoffeeCat]

47. "peaking too early"

You seem to be spot on in your analysis.

I think the "peaking too early" is a major factor in Iowa. Sanders was drawing very large crowds in Iowa during the early part of the summer. Some of these crowds were into the thousands. He also drew large crowds in predominantly red parts of our state. We're talking, Steve King territory.

I think Sanders recognized early that he'll be able to fill indoor stadiums. I don't say that lightly. If he could draw thousands in the summer, when the caucus season wasn't even in first gear--Sanders understands that he'll be able to fill large venues.

There is an appropriate time to unleash those optics and that kind of enthusiasm. It's too early now.

Being down by only 6 points now--before the power of those large crowds is fully realized--truly is a fantastic sign for Bernie's Iowa campaign.

[NCTraveler]

24. No clue how you are missing the trend considering you pay such close attention.

In mid October Sanders was up in NH 54-39 in the yougov CBS poll.

In September is was Sanders by 52-30 in NH.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-atop-iowa-gains-in-new-hampshire/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-tracker-sanders-surges-in-ia-nh-clinton-up-in-sc/

[CoffeeCat]

32. The NH polls have been up and down...

I do look at the general trends. Sanders have been ahead generally in NH. Some polls have had Clinton up a few points in NH.

I do expect that Iowa and NH will tighten as each state's primary vote draws nearer.

The biggest takeaway, for me--is that Sanders is only behind by 6 in Iowa--with 10 weeks to go. Obama was behind by 10 at this point in the 08 campaign. And he had been campaigning in the state more than Sanders has. Sanders organized quite a few large events that were attended by thousands, in Iowa. But that was in the late summer. Then, he kind of disappeared.

The Sanders campaign in Iowa almost seems to be on the back burner. I assumed that he was planning to ramp up after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Seriously...to be within six at this point (doing better than Obama did at this point) is stunningly good news.

[NCTraveler]

34. They have been up for Sanders for months with a clear trend of him losing ground.....

consistently. Very consistently. It can't simply be dismissed.

[Attorney in Texas]

37. I see trends. Clinton's losing by a smaller amount now than she was last month. Hooray for Clinton!

I also see a polling trend that I like better than I saw last week. Hooray for Sanders!

We're both happy. Good for us. Hooray for both of us!

[mythology]

29. Sanders was ahead in Iowa polling in September

Additionally this poll is an outlier from recent polling. Perhaps it's a new status or perhaps it's a fluke poll.

Also it's not like 2008 where 30ish percent won the caucus.

[CoffeeCat]

42. Yes, Sanders was ahead after the summer...

The news was all about Hillary's terrible summer. And that September poll reflected Hillary's so-called horrible summer.

However -- the prevailing story after the first debate and her stellar Benghazi testimony -- was that she had regained all of that lost ground. Hillary was back. The polls reflected that.

Hillary behind only ahead by 6 points at this point, does not bode well for her.

And trends are important too.

Iowa has a very specific history with Hillary. The Iowa Democratic party has it's DLC wing that supports Hillary. However, there is a significant Progressive contingent that went for Obama and is going for Sanders. It's that middle faction of the Iowa Democratic party that is so malleable. Clinton initially wins with this group because of name recognition and because of the power that the party apparatus has. However, an exciting, populist candidate (like Bernie or Obama) easily siphons support from this Hillary "malleables" because reasons for them supporting her are soft. The splash of an articulate, crowd-drawing populist easily lures them away.

And Iowans are some of the fiercest politicos in the nation. We're humbled by our first in the nation status, and take these caucuses very seriously. We become part-time researchers and demand to interact with the candidates.

This is how Obama won in 2008. He was utterly accessible. It was nuts. Hillary never stayed to answer questions. In fact, she planted questions at an event, after she was accused of being inaccessible-- very big news in Iowa and Iowans remember this. They also remember how she criticized our caucuses system, as a parting shot after she left the state after placing third.

There are a lot of dynamics at play in Iowa. Many that most people outside of Iowa do not remember.

Given all of this--Bernie being behind by only 6 at this point--is devastating news for Clinton and a coup for Bernie.

[Laser102]

48. Thank you. Why do people insist on equating President Obama with Bernie Sanders?

Obama was always the obvious choice. Listening to him talk about his vision for this country was memorizing.

[Attorney in Texas]

53. I think people are more inclined to equate Hillary in 2007 to Hillary in 2015. Sanders has unified

the liberal and progressive wings of the party much more efficiently in 2015 than Obama did in 2007, and Sanders is polling better in the fall of 2015 than Obama polled in the fall of 2007, and so the analogy between Sanders 2015 versus Obama 2007 is a bit of stretch because Sanders is currently ahead of where Obama was before Thanksgiving in 2007.

Still, given the similarity in tone between Clinton's supporters in 2007 and the tome of her supporters now, there are those who see similarities.

PS - When you say "listening to him talk about his vision for this country was memorizing," you realize that is exactly what Sanders' supporters are feeling when they hear Sanders addressing in a public forum the same topics we have been discussing privately among ourselves for the past two decades, right? This is precisely why Sanders' supporters are strongly united behind him. Not only is Clinton not publicly addressing these issues, most Sanders' supporters don't believe she is on our side on many of these issues (which is not to say we won't vote for her next November if it comes to that; we're just glad to have a candidate who speaks to our issues the same way we talk among ourselves about these same issues).

[JaneyVee]

4. 7% MOE.

I would wait on this one.

[Attorney in Texas]

6. Yes. Headline should be Sanders leads NH and candidates tied in Iowa (gap less than margin of error)

[NCTraveler]

7. Take a look at the actual headline of the article.

By this polls own metrics Clinton is either gaining or expanding her lead.

[Attorney in Texas]

10. We,re both happy with this polling. A rare point of agreement. We should celebrate our shared joy.

[NCTraveler]

11. Clinton gaining ground or increasing her lead in each state mentioned.

Lots for us to be happy about. I agree.

[Attorney in Texas]

18. Sanders winning NH and within the margin of error in Iowa and his message hitting target in both

states.

Maybe there is room for both campaigns to be happy with this poll. No one is trying to call off your victory parade. Celebrate all you want.

Sometimes news is such that both campaigns have room to cheer. If you feel that way about this news, we can hoist a glass together in common celebration.

[George II]

56. Good catch - CBS can't think much of their own polls' reliability. Each of them have relatively....

...huge MOEs:

NH 6.9% (13.8% possible swing)
IA 7.6% (15.2% possible swing)
SC 8.7% (17.4% possible swing)

[SidDithers]

12. "With a seven point-margin, Sanders' lead is half of what it was last month."...

Bernie's hemorrhaging support in NH.

Sid

[Attorney in Texas]

20. With a 7% lead over Clinton, his lead in New Hampshire twice what it was last week

You are welcome to tout this polling as part of Clinton's gritty come-from-behind battle back into contention in the nation's first primary state.

I share your joy.

[SidDithers]

22. That makes absolutely no sense...

I quoted from the article you posted.

Sid

[Attorney in Texas]

25. Right. Clinton is doing better than she was last month but worse than she was doing last week. Room

for both camps to see positive signs in this poll.

Why is it more complicated than that? Rejoice that Clinton is only down by 7% in New Hampshire and up 6% in Iowa. If you are happy and I'm happy, let's both just be happy.

[Godhumor]

30. You're comparing this poll to polls from other sources. That doesn't work

What has been mentioned is that CBS had shown Clinton gaining ground since their last poll, which is entirely accurate.

[riversedge]

35. Here---comparing apples to apples

X-POSTED from:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1268915



7. Nov 23 CBS/YouGov Poll: IA: Clinton 50 +4, Sanders 44; NH: C 52 +13, S 45; SC: C 72, S 25

I am comparing this poll with the last poll (apples to apples)
Clinton is gaining in all 3 polls, Sanders losing in 2 polls and unchanged in SC; Most dramatic change is in NH



This is the last CBS/YouGov Poll from IOWA:

So Clinton is +4 & Sanders -1, O'M is unchanged

CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 554 LV 6.9 C 46 S 43 O'M 3 Clinton +3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls


.................
This is the Last CBS/YouGov Poll from New Hampshire:

Clinton is +13, Sanders -9, O'M

CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 499 LV 7.1 39 54 3 Sanders +15


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls

...........................
This is the Last CBS/YouGov Poll from SC:

Clinton is +4, Sanders is Unchanged, O'M +1

CBS News/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 427 LV 8.2 68 25 1 Clinton +43


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#polls

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-extends-iowa-lead-amid-strong-ratings-on-commander-in-chief/



By Anthony Salvanto CBS News Election And Survey Unit November 23, 2015, 7:00 AM


Hillary Clinton extends Iowa lead, narrows Sanders' lead in NH


Last Updated Nov 23, 2015 10:11 AM EST

Hillary Clinton maintains her edge over Bernie Sanders in Iowa, and continues to cut into Sanders' lead in New Hampshire. With a seven point-margin, Sanders' lead is half of what it was last month.

As she has since September, Clinton holds a large lead in South Carolina.


In New Hampshire, support for Clinton has increased among seniors and she now has the edge over Sanders among this group. Sanders retains his support among younger voters. ..........................

[Attorney in Texas]

39. I'm so happy for the Clinton campaign that her polling is up after the Benghazi hearings! Hooray for

Clinton! I am happy for you. Go celebrate. If you like this news, than we're both happy and isn't that the best outcome possible?

[riversedge]

40. Sure. Happy Turkey day

[Attorney in Texas]

45. Happy Thanksgiving!

[Attorney in Texas]

38. Works for me (also, I do a pretty fair amount of focus work and polling and it pretty much works in

the polling industry, too).

If you are happy with Clinton's improvement in the polling numbers since September and early October, you should be happy with these poll numbers. No one is trying to take away your pet pony. Go out and buy a nice scarf of something to celebrate. No one is stopping you.

[Godhumor]

44. No, it doesn't

Population parameters are different for every company and organization. You can't say, "Last week PPP had Clinton at +22 and this week ABC had her at +15. She's lost 7 points!"

That is actually very basic in the polling industry and is one of the reasons pollsters treat their polls as completely independent events from other pollsters' polls.

And my pony is fine, considering my choice for candidate is dominating the primary season. I'm just stepping in to correct an error in trending.

[Attorney in Texas]

52. Polls are a snapshot (nothing more). Some polls use better methods, and some cut corners. If you

have the luxury of multiple polls that can be aggregated, that is generally better than a single poll (but is a general rule -- it is not necessarily better to dilute a poll result based on sound methodology with bad polls that use out of date data or sloppy methods).

If you have good polls by reputable polling companies with large sample sizes and recent in-field data generation using accepted methods, it's a good and accepted practice to aggregate those polls (especially if you can weigh the polls included in the aggregation to put greater emphasis on more recent, larger sample size, best methodology polling, best screening for registered voters over all adults or likely voters over all registered voters, etc.).

The current polling is just one bit of data. As compared to Clinton's pre-Benghazi/pre-Biden-announcement polling data, today's data is good for Clinton. As compared to Clinton's polling a week ago or two weeks ago, today's polling is good for Sanders. Nothing more. Today's polls do not say "Clinton has lost New Hampshire!" The only poll that says "Clinton has lost New Hampshire" is the poll in February 9.

This is a report card to the campaigns. Report cards should be judged by expectations: a straight A student might be disappointed in a report card 4 As and 3 Bs, but a student who was at risk of failing out last semester would celebrate a report card with 4 As and 3 Bs. If your expectation of Clinton's New Hampshire campaign was such that you are glad to see her down by only 7%, then you should be happy. My expectation of Sanders' campaign is such that I am happy with him being up 7% in a poll with a huge sample size of likely Democratic primary voters. I look forward to more New Hampshire and Iowa polling in the coming weeks, but I am happy to see Sanders doing so well despite the institutional and PAC fund-raising advantages that Clinton has.

[NCTraveler]

26. This poll was 54-39 for Sanders last month. Sept Sanders was even further ahead in this poll in NH.

If Clinton were Sanders they would be calling this one of the greatest political surges of our lifetime in NH.

[DCBob]

23. SC (and essentially all of the south) is Bernie's achilles heel.

He cant possibly win without gaining traction among AA voters in the south... which he has yet to demonstrate despite months of campaigning there.

[Attorney in Texas]

28. SC and essentially all of the post-New Hampshire contests (including the south) historically reflect

the momentum from the results in Iowa and New Hampshire.

If Sanders wins Iowa or New Hampshire, that would affect the later contests.

We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

[DCBob]

43. Actually that is not correct. South Carolina often votes differently than Iowa and NH...

due to its unique characteristics and demographics which are more reflective of the national electorate at large which makes it a stronger indicator than than any of the other earlier primaries or caucuses.

[CoffeeCat]

46. Wow, you guys are all ready throwing Iowa under the bus!!

This indicates to me that you know that Hillary is in trouble in Iowa.

Iowa may be predominantly white. However, we do reflect the national electorate. We were the first state to give Obama a win, despite being constantly told that Clinton was going to win and that Obama was not a viable candidate.

The Clinton camp beat it into Iowans that Obama gave pretty speeches, but that he would never win the General Election. We were told that we were throwing our vote away. We were practically scolded. By the media. By the Clinton campaign.

Iowa's choice of Obama was the SAME as the rest of the nation. Iowans picked the candidate that ended up winning. So this debunks your little theory about Iowans being soooo different and not "reflective of the national electorate."

Hillary started this bullshit when she left Iowa--denigrating Iowa and our caucus system. I never thought I'd see this drivel while she's still trying to win here. Pathetic.

[DCBob]

49. Not at all. I have little doubt that Hillary will win both Iowa and NH..

just not as big a margin as SC.

[CoffeeCat]

50. Even after 2008?

Wow, how can you be so confident about Iowa, when Hillary came in third in 2008.

She was ahead by 10, at this point in Iowa.

If I was a Hillary fan--or one of her PR advisors--I'l be sounding the alarm bells.

I'd be rethinking my entire strategy.

[DCBob]

51. Different time, different candidate.

No alarm bells... sorry to disappoint you.

[CoffeeCat]

54. If anything, Clinton has more disadvantages this time around in Iowa, NH...

...because everyone knows her. She's all ready sauntered through our state of Iowa and we are all VERY familiar with who she is.

Despite all of that, she's only ahead by 6 in Iowa. When this time in the 08 cycle--she was ahead by 10.

She's lost ground from 08.

And yes, it's a different time and different candidate, but you're forgetting the most important thing. The dynamics of the Iowa electorate. That has not changed.

Iowa support for Hillary is soft. It's tenuous. It's why she came in third in Iowa in 08. Her support slipped away in 08 because Hillary does not telegraph well in Iowa. She's in the same position with our Democratic electorate now in 2015, but just a tad worse.

The Iowa electorate hasn't changed; and neither has Hillary's impersonal campaign style that falls flat here.

I don't want you to be alarmed, but it's good to be aware.

[DCBob]

59. I think the reason most are not "alarmed" is that Bernie is such a narrow candidate.

He simply does not appeal to the broader electorate.. especially to those in the south. So even if you are somehow correct that she "falls flat" in Iowa and also NH... South Carolina will be a huge boost since Bernie will no doubt fall very flat there as well as in all the other southern states and as well as most of the Super Tuesday states. I think that helps the Hillary camp from being too alarmed so no need for you to worry either. Cheers!

[CoffeeCat]

63. ...but if Sanders wins both Iowa and NH...

....then this race is completely blown apart and all bets are off.

Any Dem candidate who wins Iowa and NH has all of the major advantages and all of the buzz. Conversely, the other candidate would look very weak.

Two consecutive wins could definitely change the dynamic of SC and beyond, for whoever claims those two first states.

Cheers to you too.

I think now would be a good time to buy a margarita machine. Democratic primary campaigns are grueling!

[DCBob]

64. Unlikely as that is to happen, it would still not have much impact on SC, and going forward.

As I explained earlier.

[Attorney in Texas]

62. Here is the current trend line over the past month's polling in Iowa (a very good trend for Sanders)

[DCBob]

67. Actually this is the more correct view..

I think you must had hit the "more smoothing" option by mistake.

[riversedge]

33. Compared to last poll Sanders is down 9 points in NH

X-POSTED from:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1268915



7. Nov 23 CBS/YouGov Poll: IA: Clinton 50 +4, Sanders 44; NH: C 52 +13, S 45; SC: C 72, S 25

I am comparing this poll with the last poll (apples to apples)
Clinton is gaining in all 3 polls, Sanders losing in 2 polls and unchanged in SC; Most dramatic change is in NH



This is the last CBS/YouGov Poll from IOWA:

So Clinton is +4 & Sanders -1, O'M is unchanged

CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 554 LV 6.9 C 46 S 43 O'M 3 Clinton +3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls


.................
This is the Last CBS/YouGov Poll from New Hampshire:

Clinton is +13, Sanders -9, O'M

CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 499 LV 7.1 39 54 3 Sanders +15


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls

...........................
This is the Last CBS/YouGov Poll from SC:

Clinton is +4, Sanders is Unchanged, O'M +1

CBS News/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 427 LV 8.2 68 25 1 Clinton +43


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#polls

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-extends-iowa-lead-amid-strong-ratings-on-commander-in-chief/



By Anthony Salvanto CBS News Election And Survey Unit November 23, 2015, 7:00 AM


Hillary Clinton extends Iowa lead, narrows Sanders' lead in NH


Last Updated Nov 23, 2015 10:11 AM EST

Hillary Clinton maintains her edge over Bernie Sanders in Iowa, and continues to cut into Sanders' lead in New Hampshire. With a seven point-margin, Sanders' lead is half of what it was last month.

As she has since September, Clinton holds a large lead in South Carolina.


In New Hampshire, support for Clinton has increased among seniors and she now has the edge over Sanders among this group. Sanders retains his support among younger voters. ..........................

[Robbins]

36. 34 replies and i can't see any of them

[MissDeeds]

57. 56 now and I can see 3!

K&R for Bernie!!

[Dem2]

41. NH is a dead heat

Many of the polls are not close to the average either. We know that there has been issues polling NH in the past, should be interesting on primary day to say the least!

[Attorney in Texas]

66. Iowa is also within the margin of error. Could be an interesting February!

[Buns_of_Fire]

55. I've made my decision, based on polling: I'm going to open a polling firm. nt

[jwirr]

58. LOL and the best part is you do not have to be right to sell

the product. One side will buy it.

[DianeK]

60. Be careful..

you don't want to piss off Hillary!

[Freddie Stubbs]

61. He seems to do well in states with lilly-white electorates, but

not so much in more diverse states.

[Attorney in Texas]

65. Sanders' campaign has been appropriately focused on Iowa and New Hampshire; he didn't pick those

states; the primary/caucus schedule was set long before he announced his campaign.

Naturally, someone who has much better name identification would poll more strongly in states where neither campaign has focused much resources.

If Sanders performs well in Iowa and New Hampshire (winning at least one and doing respectably well in both), then we'll see where the momentum takes him.

[Freddie Stubbs]

68. Sanders' campaign isn't focusing much resources in SC?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-staffs-up-in-south-carolina/

[brooklynite]

69. No we won't "see where the momentum takes him"

You have to be set up in SC before NH occurs; you can't afford to wait and see if there's momentum.

Then you have to be set up in NV before SC occurs.

Then you have to be prepared to compete in 10 States nationwide.

[Attorney in Texas]

70. This crown-the-queen plan worked so well for Clinton in 2007 that you should definitely stick with

that plan this election cycle.

The South Carolina primary is MORE THAN 3 MONTHS away.

If I were advising the Sanders campaign, I recommend two things:

First, focus on a slow growth grassroots campaign in South Carolina rather than trying to force a peaks-too-soon surge (which is the focus Sanders seems to be applying) and

Second, let Clinton supporters build up expectations so high that a loss in South Carolina is campaign-ending fail for her or a Clinton win that is closer than her armies promised smells like a loss (which is the focus you seem to be applying).

This is going just like I would hope on both parts of the plan.