PPP: North Carolina TIED (Obama 48, Romney 48)

[TroyD]

North Carolina enters the convention all tied up: Obama 48, Romney 48

In North Carolina 34% said convention last week made them more likely to vote GOP, 33% less likely, 33% no difference

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/242470870231162880

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Improvement for Mitt. Obama led 49-46 in PPP's last NC poll a month ago.

So, it looks like Obama lost one point, Romney gained two.

[jaysunb]

2. And it will probably swing 2 points back and forth

right up to election day. And then we win....

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Good point. But isn't that just the natural nature of polling?

The point is we were looking for any kind of post convention bounce. And thus far, nobody has seen it.


In all honesty, I think PPPs FL and NC numbers would be exactly the same had the GOP convention never been held.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. I'm guessing Romney saw a bump solely because of the convention...

So, I disagree that they'd be the exact same. I think, without a convention, Obama probably leads in NC and FL by a wider margin - maybe 4.

[TroyD]

12. But isn't it bad for Romney that NC is close?

Even if it's the case that Obama may not be beating Romney in NC yet (and perhaps won't in November), isn't the fact that a Republican-leaning state like this is close a bad sign for Romney?

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Yes. If North Carolina is in play, Romney is done.

[Jennicut]

4. I am not surprised it is tied.

Before the convention, CNN showed Romney up by one and Survey USA had Romney and Obama tied. Rasmussen had Romney by 5 a month ago, but they never count. PPP had Obama up 3 points but a tie seems about right.
I think NC is obviously going to be close all election. Obama only won the state 49.7% to 49.4% in 2008. So to be tied in 2012 with the economy as a factor is very good news. It is very much a toss up state.

[CobaltBlue]

5. Not good enough!

This is not good for Mitt Romney.

In the last ten elections, just two Democrats won North Carolina: Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008).

Obama flipped it, after it voted for winning Republican George W. Bush, in 2004, by a margin of R+12.46. (Obama won it by D+0.33.)

If Romney is to unseat Obama, he'll have to flip N.C. and win it by a margin that is more like 10 points. (Perhaps 8, at the last.)

[Lex]

6. What did the last polls taken on Obama vs McCain show in 2008 for NC?

I am trying to find that.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. McCain held a narrow .4% lead...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html

[Tx4obama]

11. And Obama beat him in NC by a 0.33 margin

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_u.s._presidential_election#Result

[Lex]

25. We had a huge turnout from the

African American voters here and that was a big factor. I'm hoping for the same again.

[Tx4obama]

10. Here's a link for North Carolina to add to your OP

NC enters convention tied up
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/nc-enters-convention-tied-up.html


=====


And here's another poll PPP released tonight for Florida.

No bounce for Romney in Florida
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/no-bounce-for-romney-in-florida.html

[davidpdx]

14. I hope Obama keeps it close in NC

and makes Romney dump money there. The more attention is diverted from other states, the worse he'll do overall. We may or may not win NC, but if we keep it close it's going to do him in.

[blkmusclmachine]

15. That's 96%. Who's getting the other 4%?

[WI_DEM]

16. good so the convention didn't help Mittens all that much.

[mnhtnbb]

17. Local NC polling group gets front page news this a.m. Romney ahead

http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/09/03/2312716/new-nc-poll-gives-romney-small.html

[Lex]

18. "small lead in NC" by Romney

That is good because he's spending lots of money here and can't seem to pull ahead.

[TroyD]

19. Even if the +4 Romney poll is accurate . . .

Regardless of what NC poll you look at, it's still good for a Democrat (and a BLACK Democrat at that) to be ahead in a very conservative state like North Carolina.

Even if Obama doesn't win there, it's still impressive that a state like this is competitive considering it wasn't even on the radar until 2008 since Carter won it in 1976.

[Robbins]

20. Notice

MSNBC Is completing Ignoring this but playing up the Romney+4 poll.

[TroyD]

21. Romney +3 in High Point/SurveyUSA

NORTH CAROLINA

High Point/SurveyUSA

Romney - 46

Obama - 43

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/16releasea.pdf

[Lex]

22. And "margin of sampling error is approximately 4.3 percent."

[TroyD]

23. Romney is still the favorite to win North Carolina though

I think the gay marriage issue may have been what affected the state. Obama was ahead of Romney in North Carolina until the gay marriage issue in May.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's one of the reasons the Republicans brought the issue to the ballot in the first place. You can see Obama's numbers in NC take a nose-dive after that.

It comes down to the ground game, though. The Obama team has done this before in 2008, so if it's within a few points they could still pull out a win.

[Lex]

24. So was John McCain.