2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBrace yourselves, now it begins: US News / Rasmussen pave the way for another election STEAL
They do this with a purposely vague question asking voters to predict which party the "next" President will belong to.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/clark-judge/2012/09/04/why-the-obama-romney-race-may-not-be-the-dead-heat-polls-describe
As the Republican convention closed on Thursday night, a new poll pointed to the potential for a major surprise when Americans go to the voting booths in November.
Pollsters will tell you that they cannot always count on voters to level with them about which candidates they favor. For example, Gov. Scott Walker's victory in the Wisconsin recall election several months ago was predicted by the polls, but his margin was not. It was a larger margin than the surveys had forecast. Similarly in 2004, Sen. John Kerry went to bed on election night believing he would be the next president. He woke to a surprise, as did Democrats in 1994 and, to a lesser degree, in 1980. Note, in all these elections it was the Democratic who got the unwelcome surprise.
SNIP
n any event, whatever the cause of the gap, pollsters have asked, is there a question that gets around the candor deficits? And some believe they have an answer. People may not tell you their candidate preference directly. But in close races where there is no credible consensus about the likely outcome, they typically believe that their candidate will win. In other words, ask them which side is likely to prevail in the next election and their answer will tell you their real opinion.
SNIP
In a poll released on Friday, Rasmussen Reports found that "60 percent of likely U.S. voters believe the next president will be a Republican." Only a quarter thought it would be a Democrat.
SNIP
The Rasmussen team was quick to point out that they did not specify whether the "next president" would be elected in 2012 or 2016.
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http://www.examiner.com/article/a-breakdwon-of-the-most-recent-romney-versus-obama-polls
Rasmussen uses a sample that has baseline targets of 35.8% Republicans, 33.0% Democrats, and 31.2% unaffiliated voters, despite other surveys that show Democrats' actually outnumbering Republicans in the general population.
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PLEASE NOTE: The Rasmussen team deliberately structured the poll to go either way. If they succeed in stealing the election, they can point to these results. If they don't succeed, they can rationalize it by saying that the 60% figure included both people who thought a Republican would be elected in 2012, and those who were thinking about 2016 -- since the question was vague.
liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)They have successfully placed voter restrictions in place in all these states as well.
All they need to do is have the polls confirm it so there can be no questions. They they will manipulate the exit polls.
The only way we can prevent this from happening is get out the vote in such numbers that they can't possible flip the results without it being obvious.
longship
(40,416 posts)Cal33
(7,018 posts)Buh-bye
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)Heather MC
(8,084 posts)it to Bush
of course they stole it. And look what happened
These people can't win legally, and I hope Ohio Pa and FL Dems are ready for a fight, and all the other states that are trying to make our votes not count!
fugop
(1,828 posts)John Kerry went to bed thinking he'd be president? Really? Romney and Ryan at their convention gave us "principled, compassionate, capable men who share America's "deepest values"? What a load of horse crap. This guy is delusional. And acting like it's "surprising" to find people expect the next president after Obama will be Republican? You know, that's so surprising ... to follow 8 years of one party with the other party. Never could have predicted that.
Anyway, again: What a load of crap. I need to go listen to some of last night's speeches again just to wash the stupid from my brain that this article brought on.
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)may still provide a convenient rationalization to cover up a stolen election.
It's happened before.
fugop
(1,828 posts)Frankly, we all know they stole 2000 and 2004. They didn't even really try to cover it up. It's just that there was nothing we could do about it. Still breaks my heart. So I just think they're delusional. I don't think these guys really even try to cover it up. Unless the Democrats start fighting voter suppression and Republican dirty tricks with legislation, in a very public and impassioned effort, we're going to be threatened again and again by this possibility. This crap with the early voting in Ohio, for example, is ridiculous. Why don't we have a national holiday to vote, for the love of all that's holy? If they want it to be on ONE day, that day should be freakin' sacred! We shouldn't have people who can't leave their jobs to vote.
There are so many things Dems have had to fight for that are assumed to be bigger issues (and certainly, healthcare was HUGE!), but voting rights need to be front and center at some point.
Regardless, I'm veering off topic. I agree with you that there's certainly a fear there that they could steal the election. I guess I just disagree that this piece (and the rightwing Rasmussen) are trying to cover up stealing it. I really don't think they try to cover it up. It's all right out there for us to see - in Florida, with the purging of the voter lists; in Ohio, with the attempt to stop early voting, which disproportionately benefits Democratic voters; in Pennsylvania and Texas...the list goes on. They're not even trying to hide what they're aiming to do anymore. That's more disheartening for me. We can only hope that we vote again in such numbers that they can't hide the vote.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)brooklynite
(94,520 posts)Why not wait until after our Convention to decide if there's a conspiracy?
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)Next!
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)ttp://www.gallup.com/poll/156914/americans-predict-obama-win-2012-election.aspx
This is typical Rasmussen BS.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)So if they make enough calls to get that balance (and I use that term loosely,) then they're OVER sampling conservatives! Not only are they oversampling republicans in the first place 35.8, you add in 31.2% of the unaffiliated, then it's a 2/3 majority of conservatives, most likely. I know few Democrats that consider themselves unaffiliated. They are almost always teabaggers, libertarians, and independents who left the republican party because they think that they're just way too politically educated for them.
So once again Assmussen fails. And "examiner.com" isn't that one of those fake ass news sites where anyone can write articles??? Not a real news source.
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)The examiner.com was just the source showing that the Rassmussen poll oversampled conservatives -- which seems true to me.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It's an article geared toward the base trying to convince them their guy has a chance when the polls don't show it. Nothing more ... nothing less.
MjolnirTime
(1,800 posts)Marsala
(2,090 posts)Whatever shall we do?
I'm planning on fleeing to a parallel universe where Republicans aren't omnipotent masters who control everything and there's nothing we can do but despair.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Harvey Wasserman posted his concern today about Ohio:
http://www.readersupportednews.org/opinion2/278-76/13306-four-ways-the-ohio-gop-is-already-stealing-the-2012-election