2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton loses ground in latest New Hampshire poll (Sanders takes lead at Real Clear Politics)
Clinton supporters are spinning the latest poll in New Hampshire by Public Policy Polling (PPP) as good news for Clinton, but here is how PPP interprets its own polling results:
This is our first poll in the state since the field got cut in half and Joe Biden decided not to run and since then Sanders is the biggest gainer (+9), followed by O'Malley (+4), and then Clinton (+3). Sanders is actually easily the most popular of the Democrats with a 78/12 favorability rating, followed by Clinton's 68/22 spread. O'Malley is still an unknown to 48% of the Democratic electorate but does get a solid 38/14 rating from those who are familiar with him.
PPP uses a Interactive Voice Response/Online method. This PPP methodology has been generally favorable to Clinton (if you compare her poll numbers in the PPP polls to the polls taken in the same time frame, she tends to do better in the PPP polls). For example, in October, PPP had Clinton at 41% while 6 other polls released in October showed Clinton's support ranging from 30% to 39%.
PPP's most recent prior poll in New Hampshire from October showed Clinton with an 8% lead over Sanders. In today's poll, PPP reports that Clinton's lead has fallen to 2%.
PPP's current Interactive Voice Response/Online poll should be read in contest with the other recent New Hampshire polls from CBS News showing Sanders with a 7% lead and from Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company Research for Fox showing Sanders with a 1% lead. This is why the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator shows Sanders taking an overall 2% lead in New Hampshire (46.3% for Sanders to Clinton's 44.3%).
So, we can listen to Clinton spin about today's PPP poll or we can focus on PPP's interpretation of its own poll: "Sanders is the biggest gainer (+9), followed by O'Malley (+4), and then Clinton (+3). Sanders is actually easily the most popular of the Democrats with a 78/12 favorability rating."
msongs
(67,441 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)Can't wait for the rest of the splain. As things stand right now, based on my highly accurate Town Dump Bumper Survey, my state will go Sanders and Trump and neither race will be close.
By the way Vermont used to be much closer to Pennsylvania, just ask Ben Carson.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)but keep up that memo.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)daleanime
(17,796 posts)Qutzupalotl
(14,327 posts)Robbins
(5,066 posts)this is good news.a lead cut to 2% isn't much of lead anymore than fox's 1% lead for bernie.
PPP methodology is bias towards Clinton.
with all the clinton supporters on my ignore list i knew nothing on new NH poll.
moobu2
(4,822 posts)unless it shows Bernie ahead...gotcha.
RichVRichV
(885 posts)It's possible for a candidate to be ahead and a poll to bias against them by reducing how far ahead they actually are. That's still a bias.
I generally don't assume bias when polls are proven wrong (that implies something willful), I just assume they have poor sampling.
moobu2
(4,822 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)The one that had Clinton at +21.
That was one giant blinking outlier from a piss poor company. I think the consensus has been for awhile that NH is a true toss up.
It's going to be within 5,000 votes is my guess. All about GOTV.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)She's DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)And we are just over 8 weeks until voting begins.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)actually casting votes it seems that momentum is not actually her strong suit.
Fed up in NJ
(35 posts)....what the polls would show if that sorry excuse for a leader DWS actually let the people see the candidates in more debates and not on Saturday. Surprised the few left haven't been moved to Christmas morning, New Years Eve at midnight and the rest at 4 A.M.!
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)brooklynite
(94,727 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)brooklynite
(94,727 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)delegate allocation.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)that only one candidate is General Election eligible and does not suffer a huge trust deficit with the American people.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)political agenda quite hidden at the moment.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)The closer we get to people casting real votes, the higher Bernie's polling will be, Hillary supporters will squeal but where the rubber meets the road after he is the nominee we will heal and move forward and press serious momentum for the next President of the U.S. Bernie Sanders.
betterdemsonly
(1,967 posts)simply because the GOP race is pretty competitive which means no republicans can afford to show up at their open primary. Meanwhile liberal independents will be really motivated.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)PATRICK
(12,228 posts)in her ability or desire to present herself or leadership agenda. What is left is a mix of familiarity and momentum and lots of money that may well indeed power her over to a state of winner's enthusiasm and at least acceptance.
But peaked she has if you are thinking only about the existential candidate presentation. It is Sanders who has lots of room energy and newness to slog through to actual votes for change. But no money, no insider support to match. So we'll see if the outsider can beat the past primary loser. Not many
past losers have succeeded in gaining the presidency. Nixon comes to mind, but he's a Republican.
Android3.14
(5,402 posts)The argument that Bernie has a worse chance in the general election is false.
Therefore, many who currently support Clinton, but for whom Bernie represents their values more so than Hillary, have realized they can support Bernie in the primary without feeling like they are endangering the party and risking the White House.
Even if Clinton wins, a person who votes for Bernie in the primary can still vote for Clinton in the general election. If Sanders wins the primary, we'll have a good President at a time when the country desperately needs a good President.
We might even have a great President.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
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WillyT
(72,631 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Either way: Clinton's campaign already admitted the primaries could last beyond March. Sanders is becoming very. veru viable as a candidate for the Democratic Party (all of it, not just the Third Way and the 1 %).
demwing
(16,916 posts)And that bump is normalizing itself out of the polls. Totally expected.