Brand New Monmouth University Iowa Poll- HRC -55% SBS 33% MOM 6%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

West Long Branch, NJ – Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 22 points in the latest
Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers. Voters would be happy with either
candidate as the party’s nominee, but a variety of turnout projections suggest that the road to victory is a
very steep one for Sanders.
Hillary Clinton currently garners the support of 55% of likely Democratic caucusgoers to 33% for
Bernie Sanders. Martin O’Malley clocks in at 6% of the vote. Clinton enjoys a large lead over Sanders
among female voters (61% to 27%) and a narrow edge among male voters (47% to 42%). She also leads
among voters age 50 and older (63% to 26%), while Sanders actually has the advantage among likely
caucusgoers who are under 50 years old (48% to 38% for Clinton).
These results are not directly comparable to Monmouth’s prior Iowa poll due to a change in
sampling methodology. Monmouth’s late October sample was drawn from past state primary voters only.
This group makes up just over half of the current sample, with the remainder drawn from regular general
election voters and new registrants.

http://tinyurl.com/h4r66re

[HerbChestnut]

1. Looks like they're expecting that the majority of people to show up will be over 50.

[brooklynite]

2. Even a generous upward adjustment of the voting pool doesn't help...

Recognizing the historical volatility in Democratic caucus turnout, Monmouth tested a few vote simulations in addition to the reported projection above. Increasing the model to a turnout of approximately 150,000 voters – which would be the second highest turnout on record – would slightly narrow Clinton’s lead over Sanders to 19 points (54% to 35%). Increasing it still further to approximately
200,000 voters – near 2008’s all-time high – would shrink Clinton’s lead to 13 points (51% to 38%).

[lunamagica]

3. K&R. Go Hillary!

[Sancho]

4. Don Meredith had it right...

[JaneyVee]

5. K AND R! The gap widens a bit.

[LexVegas]

6. Did they poll any millennials that will only use the latest iphone? nt

[Alfresco]

7. A standing O for Team Hillary!