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Wed Dec 16, 2015, 09:36 PM

From The Des Moines Register: Clinton grows lead to 9 percent (December 14, 2015 video)

Sometimes if one has questions, it is good to go right to the home source:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/media/cinematic/video/77272582/clinton-grows-lead-to-9-points-in-new-iowa-poll

Note the use of the word "grows" in the paper's headlines.

Keep in mind that our own DU Iowans have posted that many Iowans do not make up their minds until the day of the caucus. Additionally, Republicans who choose to vote for Sanders can change their registration the day of the caucus.

It is interesting the commentators noted that if Warren chose to join Sanders, that would cut the lead down to 6 points.

IMHO, Sanders will attract a lot of Independent voters. Check out this link on Bernie Sanders' secret weapon:

http://washingtonforberniesanders.com/latest-news/9-bernie-s-secret-weapon-independent-voters

There are more registered Independents than either Republicans or Democrats:



Note: this chart is from the link noted above.

The article itself makes some very significant arguments:

A poll of only Democratic Leaning Independents would likely lead to even greater support for Bernie Sanders. It is therefore likely that at least two out of three Democratic Leaning Independents support Bernie's positions on major issues more than enough votes to overcome Hillary's lead within the Democratic party.


* * *

Independent Voters Want an Independent President

As a final factor, Independents have long called for an Independent President not beholden to Wall Street or to the power brokers in either political party. Bernie Sanders has not only called himself an Independent, but he is the longest serving Independent to ever be elected to Congress. Many Independent voters would support Bernie because he is like them a true Independent. This makes Independent voters Bernie's secret weapon. If Democratic Leaning Independents turn out and vote for Bernie in the 2016 Democratic Primaries and Democratic Caucuses, Bernie will be the Presidential Nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016 and he will be the next President of the United States.


Equally important, however, is the fact that four of Bernie Sanders' salient campaign issues are issues equally important to Independents: campaign finance reform, restoring a fair tax structure, reducing income inequality and regulating or breaking up too big to fail banks. (Paraphrased from the Bernie's Secret Weapon article presented by the Washington for Bernie 2016 campaign, specifically David Spring M.Ed.)

Factoring in all of the above plus the addition of some Republicans choosing to support Sanders, and one is left with the obvious hope that Bernie Sanders can indeed win this race, and sorry to be trite, but it ain't over until it's over, and don't allow anyone to convince you otherwise.

Sam






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Reply From The Des Moines Register: Clinton grows lead to 9 percent (December 14, 2015 video) (Original post)
Samantha Dec 2015 OP
Segami Dec 2015 #1
Samantha Dec 2015 #2
winter is coming Dec 2015 #5
Samantha Dec 2015 #9
John Poet Dec 2015 #3
Samantha Dec 2015 #4
Persondem Dec 2015 #6
Samantha Dec 2015 #8
Tarc Dec 2015 #7
Samantha Dec 2015 #10

Response to Samantha (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 09:46 PM

1. K&R

 

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Response to Segami (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 11:14 PM

2. Can you explain to me why someone would prefer to consider the PPP poll over

a local reputable newspaper? There is a huge difference between the Des Moines Register's numbers and the PPP.

I just don't get it.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 09:57 AM

5. You mean the poll that says HRC is up by 18? Dig into the details to see how it was conducted.

If it's the PPP poll I think you're referring to, the questionnaire suggests that it was done using robocalls ("Press 1 for female, 2 for male" etc.) which means it was a landlines-only proposition. Also, it's considered good polling practice to rotate candidate's names, to eliminate bias, and there's no indication that was done, either.

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Response to winter is coming (Reply #5)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 03:48 PM

9. I already did this twice

I have checked out this site periodically and note the averaging at the top. Often there are two pollsters with similar numbers and one distinctly different. It seems, for instance, CBS often has put Sanders at better numbers than other pollsters often cited by PPP.

I am not too interested in that questionnaire. I breezed through it and found the questions asked to Republicans and towards the end the same for the Dems. I just want the bottom line.

I do think local political commentators might have more accurate information than anyone else, so that is why I went directly to these sources. Additionally, I do believe DU'ers here who live in Iowa and are working in Iowa for Sanders probably have a pretty good birds-eye view.

Thank you for responding on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 11:24 PM

3. Nine?

 

ONLY nine?

Jeez, she must be losin' it there.

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Response to John Poet (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 11:35 PM

4. It has been 9 points perhaps for a week

I went to both local papers for Iowa and New Hampshire to check what the local commentators were saying because I just could not believe the TPP and other polls. These local papers tell a different story.

I wrote this thread for morale reasons for Bernie supporters because the last I checked he was two points ahead in NH and behind 9 in Iowa. And these were purely Democratic voters.

The propaganda being promoted during this campaign has been the most misleading that I have ever seen. I do understand that Mark Penn (the Man in the Middle) is advising the Clinton campaign on polling and that is the only reason I can think of that these gross distortions are being presented.

Yet here is a thread that tells Sanders' supporters he is only 9 points behind Hillary in Iowa, yet all the conversation still lingers over the distorted numbers.

I just don't understand....

If one adds the totals currently reported by The Des Moines Register to the percentage of Independents projected to support Sanders, plus Republicans (crossing over), it is a staggering number. Bernie Sanders has his own private polling agency. One day about a month ago, he was asked about the numbers while walking out of a meeting. He replied when the reporter flashed some numbers at him: This is not what I am seeing. I am getting 25 percent of Republican voters. Now I do not have a link for that. Perhaps he could have meant historically he pulls a huge percentage of Republican votes; I know this has happened in elections in Vermont. But he made this remark after saying, "This is not what I am seeing...."

What do you think?

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 02:37 PM

6. Sounds like Sanders doesn't understand the process in Iowa

Only Democrats vote in the democratic caucuses in Iowa. Not sure why he thinks he is going to get independent and republican votes unless he was speaking of general support.

http://2016iowacaucus.com/how-iowa-caucus-works/

In a typical caucus, registered democrats gather at the precinct meeting places (there are close to 2,000 precincts statewide), supporters for each candidate have a chance to make their case, and then the participants gather into groups supporting particular candidates (undecided voters also cluster into a group)


bolding added

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Response to Persondem (Reply #6)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 03:36 PM

8. Sanders didn't say that - I did - and that information was posted by a DU'er from Iowa

Last edited Thu Dec 17, 2015, 05:26 PM - Edit history (1)

in answer to my question. That poster said if a Republican showed up the day of the caucus and wanted to support Sanders, he could if he changed his party affiliation. According to that DU'er one can do this the day the caucus begins.

I read your link which discusses only the process. I clicked on "Voter Registration" and read the information on registering the day of the caucus. Here is the link:

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/edr.html

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 02:53 PM

7. "...I just could not believe the TPP and other polls"

This is the essence of the delusion right here; Sanders supporters just cannot possible imagine why every person isn't lining up to vote just like they do. This mindset lacks the capacity to understand that people can legitimately hold an opposing point of view, so they turn to various tropes like "the media's in it for Hillary", "I just don't believe poll XYZ", and so on.

There's going to be a harsh reality check for Sanders supporters once the primary results start to not go their way.

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Response to Tarc (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 03:58 PM

10. I can assure you I am not delusional and I do not expect everyone to vote the same as I

There are actually two Democratic candidates that I think are great, but I do think the polling in some cases in skewed. It certainly can be done in different ways to leave different impressions, and I do believe a lot of this campaign is as another DU'er described it a lot of "smoke and mirrors."

It is my sense of the situation that many Sanders' supporters do not steadfastly maintain to a certainty that Sanders will win. Many of us believe he will prevail as more and more of the Country hears his message. When he started this effort, he said he did not have the money to conduct a national campaign all at once. He said he would start in the two caucus states to build support from the funds that he had. Once that organization was in place, he would ready his campaign organization for Super Tuesday, which he is now doing with the funds he has raised. So it was clear from the beginning there would be a huge gap in his numbers from Hillary's number simply over the name recognition disparity. Not too long ago, Sanders said 25 percent of the Country had never even heard of him. That is changing little by little. If he prevails in one of both of Iowa and New Hampshire, then Sanders camp is truly off to the races.

Sam

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