GOTV of course - but these are Nate's just-updated graphs...Wow...the jaws are opening!

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Wed Sep 12, 2012, 09:39 PM - Edit history (2)

Editing to add some updated win percentages of important states (!!!!), and also added the Nov 6 pic below

Nevada 93.8
Colorado 83.9
Wisconsin 93.4
OHIO 89.7 (HOLY SHIT!!!)
FLORIDA 71.1 (trending well, long way to go).

No road for Mitt IF THIS HOLDS....so GOTV efforts will be so important!



And they are going to chow down on Mitt!

here is the Nov 6 forecast updated just a short while ago

[MotherPetrie]

1. That's incredible. I hope Obama's got coattails, too.

[Doctor Jack]

2. Fucking hell

The November 6th forecast is looking good too. Our guy is trending back up and The Mad Grinner is falling like a rock.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

4. Today was the "Second Bounce"

I hate to talk this way because some very good people (both Americans and Libyans) died in the past 24 hours, but it appears that in his attempt to score some points off this issue, Romney appears to have shot himself in the foot. And the ankle. And the shin.

The DNC have Obama a bounce on domestic issues, but this incident today may have sealed the deal with undecided and independent voters that Romney has no business in politics, much less in the White House.

[Doctor Jack]

7. Are there polls taken today that are already out?

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. My view is that these hardly capture, if at all, the latest Mitt-stakes.

So I predict it will only get better from here.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

9. I'm sure there aren't...

It takes about 24 hours to get a poll into the field, even more for anything beyond the simple "Approve/Disapprove" sort of polling. We'll know by Saturday how badly this has hurt Romney. My guess is that it's going to leave a mark.

[Doctor Jack]

12. The media reaction seems to be getting more negative as the day wears on

The stories earlier today seemed to be more ambivalent but they seem to be moving in the direction of "yeah....this is really bad".

This seems like it is going to get a whole lot worse for Romney because this storm is over. I could see him really sinking now.

[Flatpicker]

14. Seems to be

I think that the MSM's survival instinct is kicking in.

Who cares about the next election if the MittWitt destroys the country. The media wants ratings, not actual war where they could be hurt.

[SIDURI]

22. The Mittwit kneecapped himself...

...to extend your metaphor a bit.

Siduri

[lunatica]

31. Shot himself in the face because his foot is always in his mouth

[Auntie Bush]

3. Wow! Almost too good to be true! nt

[calimary]

21. We must continue to view all these stats that way. DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!!!

We don't have this thing won yet!!!!!!!!

Please, everybody, remember the warning Mad-Eye Moody gave Harry Potter: "CONSTANT VIGILANCE!!!!" Yes, I'm shouting. And so was he! Don't EVER drop your guard!!!! After all, we're still surrounded by Death Eaters.

[TroyD]

25. Yup - Paul Begala said the same thing this week

Don't get complacent!

[TroyD]

5. Please post a chart of the Nov 6 Cast too n/t : )

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. done

[woolldog]

10. Im skeptical

Keep working to GOTV guys

[NRaleighLiberal]

11. Skeptical is the ONLY thing to be until the big day and all votes counted!

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

13. Absolutely...

And even if we think Obama has it in the bag, let's not forget those Senators and Representatives and all the Democrats at the state and local level who need a big turnout.

To be blunt: Let's bury the sons of bitches.

[defacto7]

18. We have to try to make this a landslide...

so any vote rigging is either too hard to try or vote rigging won't matter. Otherwise, we had better keep out eyes open.

[AlecBGreen]

15. whats the difference b/w the two graphs?

the Nowcast and the Nov 6th?

[NRaleighLiberal]

16. I forgot Josh's exact definition, but it is what things look like now vs his prediction

for election day - so he factors in bumps, timings, etc - pretty complex algorithm in use, I think. Anyone else help here? He's had requests to put definitions on the website, but hasn't yet.

[rocktivity]

17. Now, now -- before we all start "Silver-bowing"

Let's make sure we're looking at these stats in their proper perspective, LOL!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125194638


rocktivity

[Ishoutandscream2]

19. November 6 - hurry up and get here!!

And yes, hoping Obama has some verrrrryyyyy long coattails!!

[SheilaT]

20. And just wait until the fallout from

his stupid comments today about events in Egypt and Libya.

[Monk06]

23. Let's not get too cocky.......

[davidpdx]

28. + 1,000,000

[Mister Ed]

24. There is so much more at stake than the presidency...

The House, the Senate, the state legislatures...we have got to use Obama's momentum to win those downticket races.

And so, yes,

GOTV
GOTV
GOTV.

[veganlush]

26. don't forget

No one Is suppressing polls, only voters are suppressed. this don't help if they can't vote.

[davidpdx]

27. Thanks for posting this

I'm trying not to go to the site everyday now that there is a limit on the number of times you can visit.

[madrchsod]

29. if the republicans lose big this time...

it`s the end of today`s republican party. they will be forced back to the center or they will splinter into two separate parties.

[dickthegrouch]

30. Where are the predictions for House and Senate seats?

Just as now, if the President doesn't have a clear majority of seats in both houses, he'll be hamstrung.

WE have to deliver the houses to him.