Will Obama's Post-Convention Bounce Fade Like McCain's In 2008?

[DonViejo]

Will Obama's Post-Convention Bounce Fade Like McCain's In 2008?

Mark Blumenthal | September 13, 2012 at 10:52 AM

WASHINGTON -- Just a week after the conclusion of the Democratic convention, most polls now show a boost for President Barack Obama. But the big question is whether Obama's bigger lead will persist or whether it will turn out to be a temporary polling "bump." For the moment, most polls continue to show a post-convention Obama bounce. A new Fox News survey released on Wednesday shows Obama leading Republican nominee Mitt Romney by 5 percentage points (48 to ...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/13/obamas-post-convention-bounce-polls-2012_n_1880520.html

[JI7]

1. is there a Palin factor?

McCain picked Palin very close to the convention . people didn't see or hear of her until after. she got mostly positive coverage with the announcement and the convention.

[graham4anything]

2. it doesn't matter as Obama has it clinched months and months ago

so the bounce doesn't matter

Romney has no way to get to 270 and that is the only thing that matters.

[elleng]

3. No, but imo THE question/issue is about

voter id etc games Repugs have been playing.

[immoderate]

4. Yes. Voter suppression is an issue.

Several states are in some process of purging voter rolls.

--imm

[elleng]

6. Right, includes Florida, which announced its returning to it.

[immoderate]

7. Where I am right now.

There was a Palast piece floating around that mentions it happening in several states.

--imm

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. You can also thank "True The Vote" for this

they, along with some law group, are filing suits against states trying to get them to purge voter rolls

[elleng]

11. NEWS! Only 207 'noncitizens!'

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/9/13/gov_database_shows_o.html

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Apples & oranges...

For one thing, McCain's bounce gave him the lead for the first time in months and there was no evidence, prior to the conventions, that he could sustain a lead - as Obama held the lead pretty much since the primary season all the way through to the Democratic Convention. If you look at the bounce Obama is seeing, it's almost universally similar to his numbers prior to the Ryan pick. So, it's safe to say this race is resetting more toward where it was in early August. That bump is far easier to sustain. Add the fact Obama has led this race almost wire-to-wire and you've got a situation where his support is solidifying, not necessarily peaking.

[DCBob]

9. McCain got a bounce from Palin..

then it evaporated when the nation realized she was a complete idiot.

[high density]

10. McCain faded because he 'suspended' his campaign while saying,

"The fundamentals of the economy are strong."

[Blue Yorker]

12. When I see headlines in the form of a question...I ask...

Why am I, the reader, supposed to answer your damn question if you are the damn journalist?