In Romney’s swing state shuffle, Wisconsin becomes focus

[TroyD]

September 13, 2012

Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Michigan and Pennsylvania are out; Wisconsin is in.

(SNIP)

Romney’s campaign spent $4.2 million this week on its first advertising blitz after the Republican convention in Tampa and the Democrats’ nominating session in Charlotte, N.C., according to a media buyer who tracks such purchases. The Republican’s 15 commercials, which carry messages tailored to each region, are airing in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado. This week, Romney reserved time for a 16th ad in Milwaukee, according to FCC records. In response, Obama has begun running ads in Wisconsin.

(SNIP)

Obama and supportive Democrats have scaled back resources in states where Romney and his backers are not advertising, suggesting both sides have settled on the same nine states, which have a combined 110 electoral votes.

In this environment, Obama could secure reelection just by winning Florida and one of the remaining eight battleground states. That is because the president is favored to win the 207 electoral votes from states that he carried four years ago by at least 15 percentage points. Michigan is among those. He also has the edge in Minnesota, which has 10 votes, and Pennsylvania, which has 20. That would bring Obama to 237 electoral votes.

Romney’s path is more difficult. His smaller base of 191 electoral votes includes states that the president lost in 2008, plus Indiana, where polls show Romney is favored to win.

Republicans need to win 72 percent of the electoral votes in the nine targeted states, which would require victories in five to eight of them. Florida and Ohio are the biggest prizes.

More:

http://articles.boston.com/2012-09-13/nation/33790593_1_electoral-votes-republican-mitt-romney-battleground-states

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Looks like Wisconsin will be to them as Pennsylvania was to McCain...

Good luck, Mitt.

[grantcart]

2. Wisc spending Romney $ 8 million versus $ 4 million for Obama

This is one of the few states (Michigan and Minnesota being the other two) where Romney is spending a huge amount more in. I wonder if his campaign is suffering some faulty internal polling.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/12/13832916-state-by-state-ad-spending-updated-team-obama-leads-in-three-states-oh-va-co


WISCONSIN $11.8 million
Obama $667,954
Priorities $3,133,436
Planned Parenthood $61,802
Team Obama $3,863,192

Romney $369,516
AFP $3,266,979
Restore $2,777,237
CWA $1,136,676
RNC $369,483
Team Romney $7,919,891

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I don't think it's faulty internal polling. I think it's reality...

They see the electoral college as it is: Romney is likely to lose Ohio and probably Virginia ... and maybe even Florida & North Carolina. He can contest those states, but in the end, it might not get him anywhere. So, I think his campaign realizes that in order to win, they need to flip a Democratic state - Wisconsin being their best bet - to counter the potential of Obama winning Ohio.

Romney's seeing a shrinking playing field, so, instead of defending a ton of swing states, he'll do what McCain did with PA in '08 and try to pick off an Obama state to counter the potential loss of Ohio or another swing state Republicans NEED to win. My guess is that Romney's camp is close to conceding Ohio to Obama. If that's the case, they need to make up its 18 electoral votes somehow - that could be via Wisconsin & Colorado. They win those two, and hold on to Florida, NC and VA, and they're in much better position. Not likely to happen, and it would still require winning four more electoral votes (maybe NH or IA), but they can't just defend their own swing states or they have no prayer ... I think Romney, like McCain four years ago, is conceding Obama is probably going to win at least one of the four Republican-leaning swing states: Ohio, VA, NC or Florida. So, they've got to counter and Wisconsin is probably their best bet. PA is gone. Michigan is gone. Minnesota is going. Colorado looks to be going. Nevada doesn't have enough electoral votes (only 6), and neither do Iowa or New Hampshire. Wisconsin is their best shot ... and even that is unlikely.

[TroyD]

4. I agree with your analysis

And I think Wisconsin has narrowed over the course of the year. At the beginning of the year, Obama was ahead by double-digits in Wisconsin, and that has been narrowed by the right-wing getting energized by the Gov. Walker victory. So this may be the one Democratic state they feel they have a shot at in order to make up for potential loses in other states like Ohio.

Added to that is the fact that the V.P. nominee is from Wisconsin. Polls taken a month ago in Mid-August showed Ryan gave Romney a bounce in Wisconsin. But I don't think we've seen any polling for Wisconsin since the DNC. I would assume Obama got a bounce in Wisconsin and should be able to move into the lead. It will be interesting to see the post-DNC polls when they come out. It appears the Obama campaign is not taking any chances in Wisconsin since they are countering Romney's ad buy there.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Yeah, polling from Wisconsin has been scarce the last month.

In fact, the last poll came from August 21st - almost a month ago. That had Obama up 2.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

[grantcart]

6. I basically agree and was being a little wry, he is doing a very good job at throwing money away.

The money spent on Minnesota can be considered a charity contribution to the media there.


BTW he lost Colorado and Iowa a month ago when he came out against wind subsidies, apparently unaware that there are tens of thousands of Republican farmers in both states that love getting their $ 1,000 check in the mail every month. Grassley almost had a heart seizure when he heard about it. This little known brainless move by Romney with no possible electoral uptick elsewhere basically closed the door on the election.

Also Nevada almost certainly went south for Romney when "none of the above" was OK'd for the Nevada ballot and giving the Ron Paul backers in Nevada (who now control the Nevada Republican Party leadership) a chance to go to the polls and vote for their guy and make a symbolic gesture for future elections.

[TroyD]

8. Nevada

And Obama has been ahead in Nevada all year, anyway.

I don't think there's been a single poll showing Romney ahead all year that I know of.

[davidpdx]

7. They might succeed in making Wisconsin close, but they won't win

Let'em dump all their money there and concede Ohio. They'll probably screw any chance they have at Florida as well making the whole thing a moot point.

[TroyD]

9. Wisconsin was close in 2000 & 2004

So it's important not to underestimate the Republicans there.

I remember Ari Fleischer on CNN bringing up this point earlier in the year, so I wouldn't be surprised if they try something there.