Martin O'Malley has more time than Kerry did in 04. Can surprise pundits.

[bigtree]

Last edited Sun Jan 3, 2016, 01:58 PM - Edit history (1)

Nick Kelly ?@NickKellySays
@carleegriffeth @MartinOMalley has more time than Kerry did in 04. Can surprise pundits. https://medium.com/@Nick_Kelly/only-42-more-days-left-but-not-till-christmas-is-that-enough-for-o-malley-4f82b1566fcb#.98662v849 …

NK:

The Public Policy Polling national poll taken December 16–17 (before the third debate) shows Martin O’Malley has the support of 9% (nine percent) of usual Democratic primary voters. His support is growing.

This is better than John Kerry was doing when he overtook Howard Dean in Iowa in 2004, and Kerry only had 16 days to do that. O’Malley still has 30 days left to increase his 9% support before the 2016 Iowa caucuses. And, mostly because of the limited debate schedule, 54% of those polled still don’t know enough about O’Malley to have an impression one way or the other.

Carlee Griffeth @carleegriffeth
Happy 30 days to #IACaucus!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/19/heres-who-was-winning-the-presidential-race-four-eight-and-12-years-ago-today/ …


from the Globe Gazette:

O’Malley said the way the 2016 campaign is unfolding indicates this will not be an ordinary election year but instead will be “nothing less than a fight for the soul of the United States of America.” Against that backdrop, he called on Iowans to consider his leadership alternative in breaking the divided, polarized trend in Washington.

“I believe the outcome of the race is going to be set very early here,” O’Malley told reporters at the end of this campaign event. “I think the people of Iowa have the opportunity, as they’ve done before, to lift up a candidate that no one has heard of before.”

O’Malley said he is encouraged with the larger crowds that are turning out to hear his message given that an Iowa advisor told him the key is to “organize, organize and catch fire late.” That is his focus during the final month leading up to the Feb. 1 caucuses.

“I do think people are tuning in and I do think that people want an alternative. I keep hearing the phrases new leadership and getting things done all across the country and all across your state and that’s what I have to offer,” O’Malley noted.

“I think psychologically a lot of Iowans put off making a commitment until after Christmas,” he said, “and, now that Christmas has passed, I think that people are entering now that decision envelope and making up their minds, so we are certainly seeing in our own organization a lot more people committing to caucus for O’Malley.”

“I think it’s going to be once again one of those occasions where the people of Iowa have a surprised planned,” he added.

http://globegazette.com/news/iowa/o-malley-encouraged-with-iowa-s-caucuses-one-month-away/article_a77e4931-50e0-599a-9d52-66682ba9733d.html

[Attorney in Texas]

1. Clinton has raised her expectations in Iowa to the point that a loss would torpedo her campaign.

If O'Malley can top Clinton in Iowa and if Sanders can top her in New Hampshire, it cuts the leg out of her main campaign theme, which has been "might as well vote Hillary because she's already got this in the bag."

If O'Malley finishes ahead of Clinton in Iowa (even if Sanders wins and O'Malley comes in second), this is a new race for O'Malley.

Some Clintonistas want to forget when she collapsed in Iowa in 2008, she did not just lose to Obama -- Clinton came in third behind Obama and Edwards.

I would have thought a similar failure was unlikely, but somehow Clinton seems to have failed to learn the lesson that "might as well vote Hillary because she's already got this in the bag" is not a winning campaign theme, and her supporters (if DU is a fair sampling) have failed to learn that smugly counting your chickens before they have hatched is the best game plan for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[bigtree]

2. we'll see

...he's absolutely right about the after-Christmas folks. They represent up to half of the voters, if not likely voters. For those folks, all of the fights waged over the past few months are water under the bridge we're trying to sell them.

It's an excellent opportunity in the next month to re-introduce these candidacies and generate support from, at least, the margins these candidates need from those who aren't already firmly decided.

[elleng]

3. SURELY people want an alternative!

[bigtree]

4. the other two candidacies have been very strident about their chances

...hopefully overconfident.

If there are opinions that have been set in stone, there's still room and time left for buyers remorse.

[elleng]

5. Yes they have,

and it's certainly reflected at DU, tho DU does not reflect the entire Democratic electorate.

People are still learning about him, especially those who haven't paid attention until now, and he's got the good Iowa ground game, BE THERE, SHOW UP, INTRODUCE yourself!

And, as we've suggested (if not said often enough, explicitly,) he's perfectly situated between the other 2 Dems, NOT the 'old time' powers that be/corporatist/tending toward war VERSUS the 'new' loud, shouting, 'revolutionary,' but the experienced, successful moderate LEADER!

[elleng]

6. See this, in West Des Moines and heading further west in Iowa.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12815109

http://whotv.com/2016/01/02/martin-omalley-makes-stop-at-west-des-moines-library/

[FSogol]

7. K&R. n/t

[bigtree]

8. kick