Gravis Marketing/One America News 1/10 - Hillary Clinton 65% - Bernie Sanders 26%

[Alfresco]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/gravis-marketing-one-america-news-23477

[Ed Suspicious]

1. Shit! Sanders is losing ground! This sucks. At least we have another poll that tells a completely

opposite story. I think maybe, as a rule, polls are straight up bullshit at this point.

[Godhumor]

2. The issue is actually the pollsters from the past three days

Last edited Tue Jan 12, 2016, 10:27 AM - Edit history (1)

ARG is spittle. Just one of the worst pollsters in the game.

IBD/TIPP have a history of showing massive swings trying to be the first or of fate to identify new trends (The infamous McCain winning 74% of the youth vote springs to mind.)

And Gravis, well, they're just not very good either.

In the next few days we will start getting more of the decent players releasing Iowa polls, primarily. That is when we will see whether anything has really changed or not.

[ram2008]

3. We will have clarity on Wednesday

That's when Ann Selzer is releasing her gold standard Iowa poll. PPP and Quinnipiac should also be releasing some polls over the next few days and they're generally accurate. My hunch is the real numbers are about 10-15 point Hillary lead nationally, 2-5 point lead for Hillary in Iowa, and 5-10 point lead for Sanders in NH. We'll see what happens over the next few days, but really the only thing that matters is Iowa.

ARG, Gravis and Reuters are on the bottom of the totem pole, so I wouldn't pay any attention to them at all.

[Art_from_Ark]

4. ARG

Great name for a polling company

[Godhumor]

5. I'm going to guess we're going to see 3-5 point ranges in both states

One favoring each candidate.

Easier to claim accuracy in a close race if you keep everyone close to the MOE (Yes, I'm being cynical again.).