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Tue May 31, 2016, 12:21 PM

 

what's the best case scenario for Bernie getting the nomination, and then what are

the odds of that?

Is it more likely that he'll get in from winning the last few primaries, or that Hillary will get indicted? Or will there be something dramatic at the convention?

I still have great hopes he will pull it out somehow, but wondering what others here think.

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Reply what's the best case scenario for Bernie getting the nomination, and then what are (Original post)
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 OP
bkkyosemite May 2016 #1
EdwardBernays May 2016 #2
thereismore May 2016 #4
LiberalArkie May 2016 #3
JDPriestly Jun 2016 #13
bkkyosemite May 2016 #5
winter is coming May 2016 #6
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #7
TexasBushwhacker May 2016 #8
winter is coming May 2016 #9
TexasBushwhacker May 2016 #10
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #11
Algernon Moncrieff Jun 2016 #14
Fast Walker 52 Jun 2016 #16
Blue Meany May 2016 #12
basselope Jun 2016 #15

Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue May 31, 2016, 12:22 PM

1. If he gets more delegates (the fair ones not the Supers) then there will be a YUUGGEE

fight for the nomination because his supporters will demand fairness.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue May 31, 2016, 12:25 PM

2. Well

The chances of him actually winning enough delegates to win outright are almost nil.

The chances of him winning half the states, doing well in California, and Hillary not winning on the first ballot are maybe 10-20%.

The chances of Hillary being forced out due to some scandal are unknowable... But... If I had to guess I'd say 10%...

The chances of him getting the VP nod are about 2%

The chances or her winning and then being crushed by Trump are pretty high though.

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Response to EdwardBernays (Reply #2)

Tue May 31, 2016, 12:29 PM

4. The scandal odds are 50% IMO. The combined odds of Hill becoming President are 10% IMO. nt

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)


Response to LiberalArkie (Reply #3)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 12:49 AM

13. Foundation facts and deals.

Health.
Some unexpected scandal.

Bernie will do well in California, I believe.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue May 31, 2016, 12:31 PM

5. Millions of Bernie supporters will not vote for her or Trump. They use a small percentage

and keep saying Bernie supporters will go her way but I doubt it. Even ole Morning Joe doesn't think so lol.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue May 31, 2016, 01:27 PM

6. IMO, the best case scenario is Bernie killing it in CA plus scandal trouble for Hillary.

I suspect Hillary's already taken a hit from last week's IG report, and there should be other damaging revelations coming to light. Although we won't see the video, the transcript of Cheryl Mills' deposition should come out towards the end of this week and Abedin's will be taken soon. The FBI appears to be finishing its investigation and I don't expect any of that will make her look good.

In other words, it's highly likely that things will continue to go downhill for Hillary. I think plan A for the party leadership is/was to push Hillary through the pipes and hope she could ride out any subsequent scandal. Plan B would be to replace her after the convention, for maximal control of the replacement process. Plan C would be to replace her at or before the convention.

Whether/when she gets replaced is a function of how badly things are going for her. Plan A hasn't been jettisoned yet, but it's been seriously endangered by the IG report. There are already trial balloons out there suggesting Biden as a replacement. My wild-assed guess is that Plan B is starting to look less like a fall-back plan and more like the plan. Problem is, plan B can't be executed for another two months. If Hillary's problems continue to pile up, the party will look like idiots for nominating her. They may have to go to plan C.

The superdelegates are important to plan C. Their lack of support for Hillary should make it not possible to win the nomination on the first ballot. If they told her that was going to happen, she would probably drop out rather than face the humiliation of not winning, but she might try to brazen it out.

If she drops out, she'll likely endorse the replacement candidate chosen by the party, and that's where things get interesting. Her delegates and the superdelegates will be party loyalists, but will they decide it's in the best interest of the party to rubber-stamp a last-minute drop-in candidate, or will they decide that Bernie's got a better chance of winning in November? IMO, Hillary's redoubling her efforts in California to dissuade the party from replacing her and the party wants Bernie out so they can slot in whomever takes their fancy.

TL;DR: Bernie's best bet is to do well in California and continue polling well against Trump.

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Response to winter is coming (Reply #6)

Tue May 31, 2016, 02:21 PM

7. yeah, Hillary is like a leaking balloon... they were going over her emails on the Diane Rehm show

 

this morning, and it really wasn't coming out that good for her.

Agree with your analysis-- good write-up.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #7)

Tue May 31, 2016, 06:38 PM

8. Interesting. I think NPR is pretty pro-Clinton

And Diane Rehm pulled that when she said Bernie had dual US-Israel citizenship.

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Response to TexasBushwhacker (Reply #8)

Tue May 31, 2016, 06:43 PM

9. I'm stil stunned that Andrea Mitchell admitted the IG report is devastating. n/t

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Response to winter is coming (Reply #9)

Tue May 31, 2016, 07:53 PM

10. That surprised me too n/t

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Response to TexasBushwhacker (Reply #10)

Tue May 31, 2016, 10:22 PM

11. I wonder if they are trying to make the election closer than it should be

 

considering what a complete freak Trump is, Hillary should be running away from it. But the networks love close elections.

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Response to winter is coming (Reply #6)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 04:58 PM

14. I'm not a Bernie supporter, but I am a Political Scientist

. .at least by training.

I agree for the most part with your analysis.

- Agree he'd need to kill it in CA. Not just win, but numbers =>60%.
- I'd suggest he'd also need a strong showing in Jersey
- The supers won't switch simply over the OIG report. There needs to me more fire than smoke. An indictment or appointment of a special prosecutor might do it, but I seriously doubt she'd be charged with anything rising to that level. JMHO.

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Response to Algernon Moncrieff (Reply #14)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:02 PM

16. yeah, I agree... but I can't see him getting >60% in CA

 

it's unlikely, but still possible at some level.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue May 31, 2016, 11:13 PM

12. I suppose some sort of action on election irregularities

 

might pose an route to the nomination. I wouldn't hold my breath for legal action, though I think Hillary's victories in Arizona, Illinois and possibly New York are up for dispute. Nevada involved some rule violations but would mostly be seen as "stealing it fair and square."

I doubt that anything will happen to change the results, except, perhaps for those in Baltimore, before the Convention. But remember that the 2008 election was effectively decided by the rules committee, which decided how the delegates from Michigan and Florida would be handled; they did so in a way that resulted in an Obama win. If there were a reason for doing so, they could change the status of delegates from any number of states, based on voting irregularities. But this would likely happen if Hillary had to be disposed of as a candidate.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:28 PM

15. 3 things...

 

#1) Needs to come out of June 7th closing the gap, with large win in California.

#2) The scandal has to continue to smolder. There doesn't need to be an indictment, but the perception of one being imminent or even possible would do it.

#3) National polling among democrats needs to swing in Sanders' favor (not just head to head against Trump). The majority of democrats polled need to start saying they would rather have Sanders than Clinton.

If #1 and #2 happen, I believe #3 will follow.

If those 3 things happen, the super delegates will flip.

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