Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumSome words of encouragement to the supporters of Joe Biden who is leading in the polls
Don't despair! At least not yet! Even though history tells us that the front runner this early in a campaign almost never comes out on top, there's still a chance that Joe could prove history wrong and still end up winning the nomination, so don't give up hope just yet because you never know what's going to happen when all is said and done.
I agree that it's going to be extremely difficult once the debates begin to for anyone to go up against the likes of Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Inslee, Swalwell, and a host of other really sharp candidates we have this time around, but I honestly think Joe has a very good shot at holding his own among them.
I can tell that a lot of folks are worried about Joe being able to hold onto the lead once the debates begin, and yes, we all know that the hardest thing to hold onto is a big lead. However, with your encouragement and support, I think Joe Biden could still end up having as good a chance as anyone to stay leading in the polls even though the odds are highly against it. It's going to be an interesting ride for sure, so best of luck to Joe and all the other candidates as well. Never give up!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,372 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,528 posts)because I've never seen anyone say that.
In fact I've seen Biden supporters talk about Biden's debate with Paul Ryan as an example of why they're not worried.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
sorry! I shall edit... thank you!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)all is good!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,837 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)2) The larger the lead, even at this point, the larger the chance of it holding.
*HHH won it in 68. He didn't win it when he ran again in 72.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)Johnson became VP when Kennedy was assassinated and Ford became President when Nixon resigned.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)On the Republican side Nixon and Bush. In fact the only former vice president in the post WW ll era who ran for his party's nomination and lost was Dan Quayle.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)3/3
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,528 posts)of who's worried.
Because it never even crossed my mind.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)because I think it's important that Joe Biden continues to remain as a top contender, but I aslo know that early leads usually never last. It would've been better for him if he built such a lead later on than so early.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,528 posts)who are giving him that early lead.
And, just because you're worried doesn't mean "a lot of folks are worried about Joe being able to hold onto the lead once the debates begin.. ".
I'm not worried.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,372 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MrsCoffee
(5,803 posts)Except from the people we are told are concerned, lol.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,643 posts)tier candidates. I think you need to consider who the voters for Biden are...I do not enjoy listening to a laundry list of policies most that have a snowballs chance in hell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Funtatlaguy
(10,885 posts)Right now, Sanders, Warren, Pete, Beto are vying in the same fishing hole for a combination of the youngest and most progressive parts of the party.
They cant all slice up that pie heading to Iowa or Biden will skate to the nomination.
If three dropped out by August, the remaining one could then take on Biden and Harris and maybe one or two others.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
aikoaiko
(34,183 posts)His strength is that he has few fucks to give.
Its also his weakness and will say things that please him, but can diminish his candidacy.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LakeArenal
(28,837 posts)Theres NOTHING Joe could say at this point that would make anything Dump says look better.
AND. The Big effin deal.
WAS a big effin deal. And no one on our side saw it as a flub.
Everyone will flub. Beto said he was born to be president. Dumb. But who cares.
Maybe he was. He never said he was born to win.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dalton99a
(81,568 posts)leads to complacency and has a nasty habit of biting Democrats in the ass
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
WeekiWater
(3,259 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)The OP is worried about Biden leading and is consoling self by projecting the worry on to others.
Also, isn't it about time for the OP to make the preference for Bernie Sanders known? It is evident to everyone anyway.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,489 posts)It is still very early but Biden's numbers are encouraging. This is from Harry Enten https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/joe-biden-state-national-polls-frontrunner/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Politics%29
All but one candidate (Ted Kennedy in 1980) who led in Iowa and New Hampshire would go on to win their party's nomination. The eight eventual nominees were Ronald Reagan in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, George W. Bush in 2000, Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. All these candidates also held advantages in Nevada and South Carolina in years in which early polling was available and those states held early contests.
A number of national polling leaders who would go on to lose the nomination are not listed above. Joe Lieberman led in neither Iowa or New Hampshire in 2004. Rudy Giuliani trailed in Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina at this point in the 2008 cycle. Hillary Clinton was behind John Edwards in Iowa and was neck-in-neck with Barack Obama in South Carolina in May 2007. Scott Walker, who was briefly leading nationally with much less support than Biden, followed Jeb Bush in May 2015 New Hampshire polling.
The big picture here is that, at least in early state polling, Biden doesn't have the obvious weakness that many frontrunners who failed to get the nomination in earlier years had.
Instead, Biden's lead in the early states is consistent with his frontrunner status, who at least for the moment is doing the things he needs to do in order to win.....
Second, Biden's doing well with voters who are tuned into the race. Early state voters are the most likely to be paying attention to the race right now. They're the most likely to pick up on momentum for a candidate first. Biden's polling as well among highly enthusiastic Democrats as he is among Democrats at-large. In New Hampshire, Biden is ahead of Sanders, who is from next door Vermont and won the New Hampshire primary by more than 20 points in 2016, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is also from next door.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden