History says the odds are against repeat presidential candidates like Biden and Sanders.

[RandySF]

There are few bankable rules in modern presidential politics. Many theories just don’t hold up. The taller candidate does not always win. It is not necessarily the economy, stupid. And a host of sports-related predictions fall short.

But we may have a new truism: Repeat candidates usually fail.

The last three decades of U.S. elections show presidential hopefuls do not get a second life. No repeat White House candidate has won since 1988, despite the fact that such candidates have been on the November ballot in all but one of the elections held since.

Put another way: When political parties choose someone who many voters think “could have” or “should have” won the last time, they lose.

The last four Americans to win the presidency were all first-time candidates for that office … all but one of their losing opponents were repeat candidates.

The trend is especially relevant for Democrats now, whose top two presidential candidates in early polling are former vice president Joe Biden, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.. Both have run for president before and were part of the calculus in 2016, when Sanders was the Democratic runner-up and many felt Biden should have run.

In interviews, top political consultants disagreed on how much of the failed runs by repeat candidates were coincidence, but all of them said it speaks to an important shift.

“I think people are looking for something new, a strong desire to turn the page,” said Michael Steel, who was a senior adviser to the Jeb Bush campaign in 2016.


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/history-says-the-odds-are-against-repeat-presidential-candidates-like-biden-and-sanders-heres-why

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Nixon was elected in 1968 after losing in 1960.

Not that that was a good thing, but it happened.

[comradebillyboy]

2. And Bush the first was beaten by Saint Ronnie in 1980 only

to be elected in 88.

[extvbroadcaster]

3. I agree

Trump had a huge record of failure as a businessman, but no political record. He gave the BS about being able to fix Washington and people bought it. "Give him a chance" and other crap. It would be best for the Democrats to run somebody other than Biden. He has too much baggage. Run a young, clean slate candidate or prepare for four more years of Trump.

[Demsrule86]

4. So many who care more about purity than who can win...Biden can take PA...and defeat Trump.

[DownriverDem]

12. They really have a

losing goal. Besides these are not normal times. We must have a candidate that can beat trump. And yes, Biden can win PA. He can win the numbers game. If the damage being done to our country (including the courts) doesn't wake up the purity folks, nothing will.

[Cha]

5. What were the "odds" for a lying MF

Shithead traitor like trump getting rigged in?

[crazytown]

7. Trump's presidency changes history.

There is no precedent for an abusive, out of control, criminal presidency like this one; Not Nixon, not W, nada. Conventional wisdom is well out of date. Trump has torn up the rules. This is the reality our candidates are competing in. More than ever, the future is an undiscovered country.

[Cha]

8. Thank you, crazytown.

[Thekaspervote]

11. Yes.. thank you!

[George II]

6. It's not a statistically valid sample.

The last four Americans to win the presidency were all first-time candidates for that office: Bill Clinton in 1992, George W. Bush in 2000, Barack Obama in 2008 and Donald Trump in 2016.

[Mr.Bill]

9. There are no rules anymore. n/t

[crazytown]

10. If we know anything

it is history is no guide to this presidency.

[Hortensis]

13. Even worse for senators trying to move directly to

president from the senate.

And how about governors? They used to be real winners, but not for some while.

Congressmen, mostly forget it.

A self-funding billionaire might have a good chance if he were Republican, but one's not even bothering to run as a Democrat.

Oh, woe.

[LibFarmer]

14. Nixon and GHW Bush and LBJ didn't read that article.

[ucrdem]

16. LBJ is a great example.

The circumstances were a little different of course but they were both veeps of exceptional presidents. And Joe has the benefit of having Barack on hand to help him GOTV, if he wins the nom that is. But the chances look very good.

[ucrdem]

15. What failed run? Biden won his last two elections!

Yes he was veep but he was on the ticket and for a good reason. So meh.

[Midwestern Democrat]

17. Most "repeat" candidates have had to run under unfavorable circumstances.

1996 - Bob Dole - the runner up in the 1988 Republican primaries - had to run against a popular incumbent president during a strong economy. Probably no Republican could have beaten Bill Clinton that year.

2000 - Al Gore - who had done well in the 1988 Democratic primaries - had to try to win a third consecutive Democratic presidential term.

2008 - John McCain - the runner up in the 2000 Republican primaries - had to try to win a third consecutive Republican presidential term under very unfavorable circumstances - Bush was a disaster and the financial crisis hit before the election.

2012 - Mitt Romney - the runner up in the 2008 Republican primaries - had to run against a personally popular incumbent president.

2016 - Hillary Clinton - the runner up in the 2008 Democratic primaries - had to try win a third consecutive Democratic presidential term.

[Peacetrain]

18. How many times did we hear that the country was not ready for Barack Obama..

Sometimes a candidate is running before his or her time to be in office.. the time is right for Joe Biden..

[peggysue2]

19. The old rules don't really play anymore

Think this is Joe Biden's moment, a chance not simply to become POTUS but to save the country from the wrecking ball that is Trump. Biden brings experience, gravitas and foreign policy knowledge/relationships that no other candidate can offer. He has a legislative and executive background, knows where the levers of power are and how to work them. He can hit the ground running, surround himself with tier 1 personnel and start rebuilding and reinforcing our institutions, reestablish relationships overseas, our diplomatic services and make damn well sure our elections are secure from further foreign intrusion. Once underway, he can also start the march forward in healthcare reform, climate change policies, gun reform safety, etc., the myriad of problems exacerbated by Donald Trump's corrupt administration.

But most importantly? He can win.

So, regardless of what Republicans--Michael Steele and Jeb Bush--think, there's a reason Joe Biden is leading in the polls.

He can win. He can win. He can win.

And without a win in 2020? All bets are off, including those placed on our democratic Republic.

A GO4JOE 2020