Did Joe Biden Make a Mistake by Not Going to Iowa with the Rest?

[MineralMan]

Is he plateauing?

I'm guessing not. If he is plateauing, he's doing so at an enviable position. So, why didn't he go to Iowa along with the 19 others who had a chance to speak for 5 minutes at that event? Well, he was at his granddaughter's graduation ceremony, apparently. That's important, too.

Is he skipping Iowa? Not at all. He's going there this week to campaign. All by himself. Oh, Donald Trump will be in Iowa, too, so there might be some fodder for what he has to say there. But, he's far from skipping Iowa right now. I suppose the Iowa media will be covering his visit, too, since he'll be there when the other candidates are not.

He's not being naive or thinking he's got this locked up. Instead, he's strategizing and making his visit when it's likely to make the largest impact and reach the largest amount of caucus-goers. Will that strategy work? I don't know, but we'll see, I suppose, in the polls.

[uawchild]

1. Joe Biden's low-key campaigning schedule, explained

"The pace of the Biden campaign has even become a bit of a joke among journalists covering the 2020 race."
...
"But as much as this approach has a solid tactical logic, it also intersects with two of Biden’s biggest potential campaign problems. Progressive activists hold a dyspeptic attitude toward him, and there are broader concerns among Democrats about his age and tendency to make gaffes. The best way for Biden to dispel both worries is to get out there in the day-in, day-out work of full-time campaigning — something that Biden’s camp says is coming but that we haven’t seen yet."

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/5/29/18637055/joe-biden-campaign-events

Well, since Biden hit ~42% after he announced then adopted this "low-key" campaign and dropped to ~34% nationally, I would say it has been a mistake.


The old sports boxing adage is when you have your opponent on the ropes, you better put them away. Biden chose not do this.

Another old sport boxing adage is "you can run, but you can't hide".

People are starting to think, per the Vox article, that the Biden Campaign is hiding Joe from the public as much as possible.

Has Biden Plateaued? Is 34% his actual ceiling?

Who knows, he might keep dropping, he might go back up. Time will tell.

But the Biden bounce definitely is over.

[Hortensis]

25. Oh, brother? The same sorts claimed he killed his campaign

at the outset by declaring too late. Yes, they have no shame at all, do they? But they do have a job to do.

A drop in Biden's outsized initial lead into more competitive range is inevitable and would occur even if he miraculously somehow did all the things the chattering classes say he should. We have 24 candidates, many of them actually serious people, and people are looking around.

[uawchild]

27. People point out Biden has no job to divide his attention

He's free to campaign full time. They are wondering why he isn't.

Shrug

Time will tell if the low-key approach was a good one.

[Hortensis]

28. "People" turn anything they can grab into a stabbing instrument.

Doesn't mean we should copy them. It's not like we're being paid. But, yes, this has a deadline and time will for sure tell.

[mtnsnake]

2. It was smart on his part to avoid the possibility of getting showed up by the other candidates

but unfortunately, he won't be able to avoid any of that once the debates begin.

[uawchild]

3. "you can run, but you can't hide"

[Peacetrain]

4. No... he is fine in Iowa.. We understood..

As I posted to someone else.. it is something any of us would have done.. Go to the graduation of our grandchildren.. 5 minutes (and that is all they got) on stage or keeping faith with your family.. trust me.. he is fine.. with us..

[mtnsnake]

5. " it is something any of us would have done.. Go to the graduation of our grandchildren"

Maybe he can skip the first debate because his neighbor's son is having a high school graduation party.

[Peacetrain]

7. Let me guess.. you are not a Biden fan

well he is fine with us..

[Agschmid]

13. " Neighbors son" vs. "grandchild"

Kinda don’t seem anything like the same thing...

[Cha]

29. Not even in the same ball park.

[uawchild]

6. Biden has had a very light campaign schedule since he'd announced.

It's not a matters of just one weekend. He's doing less appearances than everyone else.

Reporters covering his campaign are starting to joke about it.

[Peacetrain]

10. Well I hope they are good jokes.. nothing better

than a good laugh .. makes your whole day go better.. I read somewhere that if you smile more than you frown you will live longer.. makes sense..

[uawchild]

15. lol ok I am now a fan...

of Peacetrain!



All the best.

[Peacetrain]

16. You too uaw!!

We union offspring have to stick together..

[LibFarmer]

8. Luxury of a front runner

He can dismiss the others and it cements their position as "the pack" whilst exalting Biden as the alpha.

When he goes to campaign, he will have bigger crowds and a very formidable entourage of reporters.

Iowa caucuses have changed now -- because of the new ability to caucus on the phone. This gives Biden and enormous edge that Hillary didn't have.

[Peacetrain]

12. You are so right there!

This is the first time in I can't remember when that we or someone in our family was not a precinct captain at caucus for a candidate.. I am going to RL caucus.. but just as a participant this time.. it will be so interesting to see how the virtual caucus works..

[uawchild]

14. re-think that

"because of the new ability to caucus on the phone. This gives Biden and enormous edge that Hillary didn't have."

Wrong, so very wrong.

The % of delegates to be earned online/phone is capped at 10%, and this part is important, no matter how many people choose to caucus that way.

It is projected that 30% of voters might choose to caucus online, that would mean that their vote only counts 1/3 as much as people showing up in public. The more people caucusing online instead of in person, the worse it gets.

[bitterross]

9. No, I think it was wise to conserve cash.

It was probably the better move, this early, with such a lead, to conserve cash and time for elsewhere.

[MineralMan]

11. That could be, I suppose.

I don't know, really.

I suspect his trip to Iowa this week will cost more than a trip to be there for that Hall of Fame 5 minutes on stage.

I haven't seen his schedule for Iowa yet, so I don't know.

[monmouth4]

17. I don't see the "fire in the belly" passion in Biden as some others have. Maybe I'm wrong and it is

early, but I'm thinking if he wins that'll be great, if not, that's okay too.

[FloridaBlues]

18. FYI he was at his Granddaughter graduation

Perhaps everyone should just let his campaign worry about events ?

[MineralMan]

23. That's in my first paragraph in the post.

[Eliot Rosewater]

19. I dont know but good thing he doesnt have a son tweeting bullshit from RT about

prominent Democrats.

I would be specific but I DONT DARE

[MineralMan]

22. I would not have known that, except for

someone posting it on DU. Not wise, I think.

[JustAnotherGen]

20. It was his grand daughter's

Graduation

[MineralMan]

21. Yes. That's in my first paragraph.

[JustAnotherGen]

24. Yep

I just wanted to highlight it again. . And yep - it's important too.

[mtnsnake]

26. Yes, his granddaughter's high school graduation is more important than an important campaign event

in Iowa that was supposed to feature all the candidates including the front runner.

Biden better get his priorities straight or he'll be finished even sooner than he was the last two times he ran for President.

[Cha]

30. I like that Biden's Granddaughter is more

important to him than doing what those who are just sooo concerned think he should have done.

[MineralMan]

31. +100

Yes. Much more important than a five-minute campaign pitch. He'll make many, many of those. His granddaughter will only graduate once. I'd make the same choice.

[Cha]

32. Exactly.. Biden is a Family man!

Your granddaughter does only graduate once from high school.. and how would it feel and look if he we were out chasing votes in Iowa.. as the Front Runner no less.

Not very good for all concerned.

[MineralMan]

33. Biden is targeting a family-oriented constituency.

I think that's a solid primary strategy. With the nomination in hand, he'll campaign against Trump the Sleazeball. That also appeals to a solid bloc of voters. I think he's on track.