PollerCoaster poll of IA/NH/SC: Biden 29%, Sanders 20%, Warren 19%, Buttigieg 14%

[highplainsdem]

This is the first of the PollerCoaster series of polls that are a collaboration of Jon Favreau's Crooked Media and Change Research:


https://crooked.com/articles/pollercoaster-2020-electability/

We asked 935 voters from Monday, June 17 to Wednesday, June 19 not just for their candidate preferences, but for their second choices, and for information about how they reached their decisions.

Like many pollsters, we found four candidates at the top of the pack. Joe Biden leads with 29 percent, followed by Bernie Sanders with 20 percent, Elizabeth Warren with 19 percent, and Pete Buttigieg with 14 percent. No other candidate has double-digit support.

These same four candidates dominate the second-choice rankings as well, but the ordering there looks much different. Warren tops the list of respondents’ second choices with 20 percent, followed by Biden with 18 percent, and Sanders and Buttigieg with 15 percent. Kamala Harris is the top choice of only five percent of respondents, but 11 percent say she is their second choice.

These rankings mask the extent to which many voters have selected candidates on the basis of perceived electability. Yes, each candidate’s supporters tend to think their candidate would be the best president. But 22 percent of respondents said they prefer their top choice candidate over their second choice candidate because they believe their top choice “has a better chance of beating Trump.” Of those voters, a full 45 percent believe their second-choice candidates would fare worse against Trump because they worry that average Americans won’t like their second-choice candidates as much as their top choice, and this is especially true of people who chose Warren, Harris, and Buttigeg as their second choices. Additionally, large proportions of all candidates’ supporters feel that Biden is the likeliest to beat Trump: 50 percent of Buttigieg supporters, 28 percent of Warren supporters, and 20 percent of Sanders supporters believe this.

Crosstabs for the poll are here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LqfkQsESsQYMT7dpYqsRX4RRcJoX_uTjq-WgUOJPVh8/edit#gid=0



Among the questions asked was this one:

Which of the following candidates do you think would make the best president?

Biden did even better when that question was asked, as he was chosen by a higher percentage, 32%.

Warren was chosen by 20%, Sanders by 19%, and Buttigieg by 13%.



And when asked which candidate would be most likely to beat Trump in 2020, the results were: Biden 50%, Sanders 19%, Warren 14%, Buttigieg 6%.

Even among 18 to 34 year olds, Biden was considered most electable by 44%, compared to 31% for Sanders, 8% for Warren, and 6% for Buttigieg.



The article the first link in this OP goes to has a discussion of whether voters should be trying to figure out electability.

But voters would have to be idiots NOT to be concerned about electability.

And the article admits that "An enormous amount hangs on Democratic voters getting the electability question right."

[bluewater]

1. Another poll showing a wide open field

The electability issue is becoming less and less of a differentiating factor in choosing our nominee.

More polls show more democrats beating Trump by larger margins.

Biden +10
Sanders +10
Warren +6
Harris +4
Buttigieg =4

http://emersonpolling.com/

[highplainsdem]

2. A field where Biden continues to dominate, and 50% of those polled consider him most electable.

[crazytown]

4. What isn't varying is that Warren is moving up on Sanders

A 3rd place result in IA and NH would finish him IMO.

[highplainsdem]

6. Agreed, and I think that's why he trotted out his "my student debt relief is bigger than your

student debt relief" plan.

[Peacetrain]

9. Ding ding ding ding ding.. we have a winner

Hubby said the very same thing..

[crazytown]

10. And Sanders is actually helping Warren

When questioned, she can say my plan is more moderate than the Senator Sanders'

[Peacetrain]

14. good point! I had not even thought of that one..

Sen Warren has been eating into Sen Sanders supporters for at least three months here in Iowa..

[crazytown]

17. And Warren's own bill on healthcare isn't MFA either

She sponsored Sanders' Bill but is proposing a Medicaid buy-in through the ACA.

[highplainsdem]

18. I agree, but I'd guess Sanders is betting everything on his "all is forgiven" plan bringing him much

higher numbers of younger voters. Warren's been making inroads there, and Biden is trouncing him in other age groups.

But as this poll points out, even among 18 to 34 year olds, nearly half think Biden is most electable, with Sanders lagging far behind even in what's the strongest demographic for him.

[crazytown]

20. As long as The Left is split, Biden has the inside run,

and he is in the box seat whatever happens. I'm a realist. Bernie will hold out to the bitter end.

[Cha]

24. So freaking obvious!

[bluewater]

8. Dominating? In this poll?

This poll shows Biden with a 9% lead at 29%.

29% is not a dominating position to my mind, to me this poll shows the field remains wide open.

[Peacetrain]

11. In a field of 25.. that is awesome.. there has been nothing wide open about these polls for months

The top 5 are killing it.. and unless the san andreas fault kicks in and or yellowstone blows up.. that is where you will see the winner come out of..

[highplainsdem]

12. 12 point lead when asked who'd be the best president, 31 point lead when asked who's most electable,

and those are numbers that will increase his lead overall.

Unless you believe those voters will stop considering who'd be the best president, and who'd be most likely to beat Trump, when they finally vote in the primaries.

[bluewater]

19. With polls trends matter most

I forget who said it first, but so many people have made the point that I think it has a lot of validity.

What matters most about early polls is the trendline.

The absolute numbers vary from pollster to pollster for a host of reasons, so "they" suggest watching the trends within a given poll over time.

Looking at all the polling so far, and keep in mind this is all very early polling, the following 4 general trends have emerged across the various polls:

1. No candidate has a majority of responder support.

2. Biden's support has plateaued.

3. Sanders' support has declined.

4. Warren's support has increased.

The only candidate with a consistent upward trend over the last 4-6 weeks has been Warren.

[highplainsdem]

21. Warren's been doing a bit better as Sanders loses support. In almost all polls, their combined

support doesn't equal the support Biden has.

This poll is one of the very few exceptions to that.

Yes, Warren't doing better.

Biden continues to dominate.

At this point, with so very many candidates in the race, and with the top three having almost universal name recognition, it doesn't mean a damn thing that no one has a majority of responder support.

Biden is at 50% when Democratic voters are asked who they believe is most electable.

And his electability number has been even higher in other polls.

This poll is a bit of an outlier, showing the combined strength for Warren and Sanders at a higher percentage than in other polls.

[bluewater]

22. Biden continues to plateau

The most recent polls show that Biden is still plateaued in the mid 30's %. The combined total of the other remaining candidates consistently surpasses Biden.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

As far as where supporters of other candidates besides Warren and Sanders will go as the field narrows, it's pointless to make predictions besides saying "the field remains wide open".

Some people feel the bulk of those supporters will go to Warren. I suspect that Biden will also get his share and that the race will stay "wide open" for quite a while.

I think we both might be starting to restate our positions, so, thank you for the discussion.

[highplainsdem]

23. "The other remaining candidates" are all two dozen plus of them. Until the field narrows,

we're unlikely to see any candidate at 50% or higher.

Biden has maintained his lead, despite lots of predictions just before and after he announced that he'd lose that lead once he was officially in the race (and thus under attack more) and after the bounce most candidates get from their announcements wore off.

He's maintained that lead despite attacks from the media and the other candidates.

[Scurrilous]

3. Thanks!

K&R

[Iliyah]

5. Since shithole had his hissy fit about the

"bad" polling, I've noticed fewer polls depicting his polling and a onslaught of Democrat's polling. hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Bring on more "bad" polling about that illegitimate asshole in the WH and let him cry foul.

[highplainsdem]

15. Poll releases tend to be uneven, and I think we'll keep seeing the same polls checking how Trump

does against the different Democratic candidates.

No matter how much Trump bitches about the results.

[LakeArenal]

7. This should spark a rash of haters and baiters

However, Joe remains the most qualified both nationally and globally.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Voters would have to be idiots not to consider ability to govern

There I fixed it for you.

Pollercoaster? Never heard of ‘em- how does Nate from 538 rate them?

Biden has likely reached his ceiling.

[highplainsdem]

16. They're brand new, with this their first poll. No idea how 538 will rate them. As for what you said

about how voters would have to be idiots not to consider ability to govern -- they were asked in this poll which of the candidates would be the best president.

Biden did even better then, with 32%.

And no, Biden hasn't reached his ceiling.

Especially not when 50% of those polled consider him most likely to beat Trump.

[Cha]

25. Even among 18 to 34 year olds, Biden was considered most electable by 44%..

Good job at weathering the storms, Joe Biden!

[emmaverybo]

26. When we talk about electability, at any length, we have to point to Biden's superior qualifications,

one reason potential voters support him.

1. Experience
2. Knowledge
3. Proven ability
4. Stature and respect accorded him in American politics and on the world stage
5. The “soft” skills and appeal: gifted communicator, negotiator; decent, trustworthy, resilient, wise, and honorable character as attested to by allies and foes alike,
as well as conduct in personal life and political career.

[oasis]

27. Looking good.nt