Biden drops to +6 in latest Economist Poll

[bluewater]

THIS WEEK
Economist/YouGov: Wednesday June 26
Biden +6 lead, down from +10 last week

Biden..... 25
Warren... 19
Sanders.. 15
Harris...…. 7
Buttigieg.. 6
O'Rourke.. 3


LAST WEEK
Economist/YouGov: Thursday June 20
Biden +10

Biden..... 26
Warren... 16
Sanders.. 12
Harris...…. 7
Buttigieg.. 9
O'Rourke.. 3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Warren's strong momentum continues.

[DownriverDem]

1. Just remember

Biden is the best candidate to win the Electoral College and beat trump. So keep doing all you can to bring him down.

[bluewater]

4. Pardon?

These are the latest poll results, presented clearly and accurately with no negative comments about anyone.

Please don't shoot the messenger.

[Bradshaw3]

11. Stating opinion as fact does not make it so

You don't know that Biden is the best candidate to win 17 months from now. And pointing out poll numbers is not "trying to bring him down." If Biden supporters are upset about hearing poll numbers, well that doesn't bode well for standing up to what the repubs will unleash in 2020.

[LanternWaste]

21. Like alleging "she ran an excellent campaign..."

Lacking objective evidence to support a premise does not, as you so emphatically state now that is suits your purpose, make it so.

But, if non-Biden supporters are upset he's still in the lead despite the crap flung at the walls the past two weeks, that doesn't bode well for advertising their support of the Democratic nominee in 2020... (six of one, half a dozen of the other-- and each as biased as the other)

[Bradshaw3]

49. Still stalking me I see

Boy I really hit a nerve didn't I? Predicting an outcome as a done deal is not the same as judging how someone runs a campaign. But at this point, obviously, reason and facts don't matter with you. You're looking for revenge, or something like it. Your crusade against me will have no effect on me, except for amusement purposes.

[bluewater]

41. Biden's lead dropped from +10 down to +6 in that poll

The OP made that clear, it was accurate and showed all the data from the last 2 weeks to support that fact.

Please don't shoot the messenger.

[Bradshaw3]

50. I didn't start the thread so it's not MY headline

And I didn't fabricate any scandal. I'll be charitable and say maybe you meant to reply to the OP, but your words don't really fit there either.

[Perseus]

14. He is the best candidate to win the Electoral College because????

Please tell why?

How do you know that? What makes you think that is true?

I would love to learn what makes a candidate the best to win the Electoral College.

[oldsoftie]

16. Well, you start with who is most likely to win swing states.

Biden would likely win hi HOME state, which Trump won in '16. He's also far ahead in some of the others too.

But its June '19. These polls mean little.

[Butterflylady]

27. However

They do give a peak into what's going to happen. It will be up and down from here on.

[pnwmom]

18. We don't know that. He and Bernie are merely the best known.

We don't know who will look strongest after the debates, once the primaries begin.

[DrToast]

19. Uncalled for

Posting recent polls is perfectly acceptable, IMO.

[Perseus]

20. I want to add that if Biden becomes the nominee, I have no doubt that most, or all

at DU will support him, I know I will 100%, but at this time I feel there are better candidates. I would think that our goal should not be limited to getting the buffoon and his cronies out of office, but to get someone in the WH who will reverse all the evil this administration has and is doing, who will be ready to govern, who will fight for the right of the people, who will make our allies come back to our side, who will respect the rule of law, etc. That should be the goal, and we should not fall into a fanatic behaviour to any candidate, they all need to be vetted 100%, and the best should be elected.

I am undecided because I feel we have time to see what each candidate will do, how hard they will fight the repubs, how genuine they behave, how much I can believe from what they are saying, and see how many times they put their feet in their mouth which will give repubs ammunition to attack them.

[Fiendish Thingy]

24. It's not DU I'm worried about

If Biden is the nominee, it could suppress, rather than energize, the youth vote.

The higher the turnout, the better our chances.

[Indygram]

38. Disagree...Beto Canvasser in Republican areas show Beto the clear favorite on the ground, even over

Trump. (In Texas...38 electoral votes and Trump CAN'T win if he loses Texas)

Not a single person listed Biden as who they would support.

[FloridaBlues]

40. Too bad Beto didn't win last election in Texas would have loved to see Cruz out.

[Crunchy Frog]

47. That's an opinion. Not everyone agrees.

[Autumn]

57. It's your opinion that he's the best to beat Trump. A lot of others don't think he is.

[SouthernProgressive]

2. Tap tap tap....

Hi Mr. Biden, I'm Senator Warren.



All I have wanted is a Biden Warren primary. Love it. I plan on voting for Warren in the primary but Biden wouldn't be second best for me in the general. He would get not only money from me, but my time as well.

[SunSeeker]

3. K & R

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Polls will make clear more and more that he is not the best candidate to beat Trump

[padah513]

6. Wow... just wow

Look. I am a card-carrying member of the Democratic Party from New Jersey. I can only speak for myself but I will not post anything negative or contrary about any of our Democratic candidates during this campaign season. If I do post, it will only be in the positive for the candidate I think has the best chance to lead us out of this Trump-induced quagmire. I suggest others do the same. Stop tearing us down. A Trump-less WH should be our main goal. Getting rid of a few Republican Senators wouldn't hurt either.

[LarryNM]

10. Translation: Biden's lead is slipping and the tired only Joe can beat Trump

narrative is being increasingly put to rest.

[Butterflylady]

28. By who?

[LarryNM]

45. Do you mean Who shows his lead slipping?

This poll among others for one.
Do you mean Who is pushing his inevitability narrative?
There have been and continue to be many on DU in the last several months.
Do you mean Who is putting this narrative to rest?
There are more posts daily even here on DU speaking to this and
even Biden supporters now posting that his decreasing poll results
are a result of asking the wrong people.

[padah513]

31. This isn't just about Biden

This goes for any of our candidates. We need to stop tearing our candidates down. That was my message sorry you didn't get it.

[LarryNM]

43. You stated you wouldn't post anything negative about any of our candidates.

What did you find negative in the OP?

[Perseus]

22. I refuse to shut my eyes to the truth, which is what you are asking

If we did that we would fall into republican behaviour, we would become lemmings, and I refuse to become one.

If we cannot discuss intelligently about our candidates then we are doomed.

That almost sounds like if Biden shot someone on fifth ave we should find the good part about it...well, he only used one bullet, that is good...well, he shot the victim from behind, the victim did not suffer, that is good...you get the idea.

[padah513]

29. I'm not asking anyone to shut anything friend

I worry about the circular firing squad. I want our eventual nominee whomever they might be to go into the GE from a position of strength and not limp in full of holes.

[Perseus]

34. Not posting anything negative, posting only the positive is in a way shutting our eyes

I feel that everyone at DU will support any of the candidates who becomes the nominee, but in the meantime we need to post the good and the bad, that way we can figure out fully who will represent us the best and who will definitely defeat the buffoon and those in the senate.

Lets keep an open conversation about our candidates, they are all good, but some have more flaws than others and we need to know what those are.

[Lordquinton]

56. Holy non-sequiturs batman!

Why would you post this in a thread with just poll results?

[stonecutter357]

7. let's go Joe !

[DavidDvorkin]

8. That's quite misleading

He dropped 1 point, which may or may not be significant. The significant number is Warren's gain at the expense of others and Sanders's slide.

[bluewater]

13. It's very accurate, actually

Last week Biden's lead in this poll was +10.

This week his lead is +6 in this poll.

Hence, "Biden drops to +6 in latest Economist Poll"

Also, you are wrong in saying "The significant number is Warren's gain at the expense of others and Sanders's slide".

Sanders support went up from last week, from 12% TO 15%.
Both Warren and Sanders gained on Biden.

That aside, I think for most people the most significant number is that Biden's lead shrunk from +10 to +6 over the last week.

[JudyM]

17. Sanders is actually up.

[DavidDvorkin]

32. I did misread the Sanders numbers.

[OKNancy]

9. I'm not surprised Warren has jumped up

She is the flavor of the day;the media darling at the moment.
As I watch tv and read news stories, it's been constant positive Warren stories.

[Bradshaw3]

12. The positive stories are because she has run an excellent campaign

[Butterflylady]

30. By making promises

That may not materialize. Once elected it takes a congressional majority to accomplish.

[True Dough]

35. But Biden's promise to cure cancer is SURE to materialize, right?

Come on. Let's put them all on a level playing field when it comes to making commitments. Some will come to fruition, some will not. That's every campaign.

[Bradshaw3]

53. Her proposals are not "promises"

They are well thought out, researched proposals with details on how they would be financed that are the result of a full-time staff working with her on them, and over a wide range of issues that no other candidate can even touch. Biden doesn't even have an issues section on his website last time I looked. I prefer to know what a candidate plans to do when taking office. Whether the can achieve their goals is another thing.

[Perseus]

23. Something doesn't come from nothing

Warren must have done something good...don't you think?

[LibFarmer]

15. I would brush up on my math.

VP Biden was at 26% last week and he is 25% now.
Sen. EW went from 16 to 19 at the same time Sen. BS went from 12 to 15. Mayor Pete went from 9 to 6.

Mathematical conclusion is that EW and BS went up not at Biden's expense but at Mayor Pete's and some other lower candidates.

VP Biden is holding steady.

By the way, all these differences are within or barely outside the MOE.

[Perseus]

25. Well, the math says that Biden went down by one point, no gains

The math also says that both Warren and Sanders went up. Not sure why you say at "Mayor Pete's expense", not really, Biden did not go up, he went down which means that no new people decided to support Biden, on the contrary, more people decided to NOT support Biden, and people also dropped support for Mayor Pete, but they did not go to Biden.

Not sure why you brought math into the discussion, any way you look at it, mathematically speaking, Biden has a negative.

[TwilightZone]

44. "the math says that Biden went down by one point"

No, it doesn't. A movement of one point is well within the MOE. It doesn't signify a drop without question.

"any way you look at it, mathematically speaking, Biden has a negative."

Similarly false.

[bluewater]

48. It does signify a drop of the possible range

Last week, for example, Biden was at 26% +/-the margin of error.

This week he's at 25% +/- the margin of error.

That means, statistically, the top possible value in that range has decreased by 1% from the pervious week.

For example, if the margin of error in a poll was +/-2% and a candidate had a poll result of 30 +/- 2%, the margin of error, their statistically likely results could run from 32% to 28%.

If that candidate's poll result went down 1% to 29%, the statistically likely range of results drops to 31% to 27%, for the same margin of error.

That is how error bars work.

[LarryNM]

46. Its that special DLC math. eom

[karynnj]

26. Agree, but the op's conclusion referred to Elizabeth's momentum --

True the title referenced the gap between Biden and Warren. However, claiming the gap is reduced from earlier polls does not dispute that Biden is essentially at the same point. That does NOT make it wrong that the gap is closing at least in this very short interval over a half year before the first primary.

There are several possibilities, assume that Warren is impressive tonight AND at least some other candidates show they are not ready for prime time tonight or tomorrow AND supporters currently backing other non Biden candidates shift mostly to Warren. Let's also assume that Biden's performance is as expected (good) or worse meaning he gets little gain. It is entirely possible that a week from now, Warren could poll in a near tie with Biden. Remember that the gap between Obama and HRC was larger this far out. HRC, in many polls, was polling in the 40s at this time in 2007. http://pollingreport.com/wh08dem2.htm

One thing that WILL happen once the voting starts is that no more than maybe 5 at the very most of the candidates will get delegates in the early states. Most of the 23 (or 24) will drop out. At this point, Biden has the best chance of winning the nomination, but he needs far more than 25%. He will, of course get some of those who shift -- as he is now polled as the top second choice of people not supporting him now.

[Celerity]

36. it is why the OP said he dropped to +6 (ie. the spread) as he was at +10 versus the nearest

competitor. The OP's maths and phraseology are just fine.

Biden could 'hold steady' and still be passed up simply by undecideds falling in behind another candidate and then other (meaning not Biden or the new leader) candidates haemorrhaging support to that new front runner.

It makes little difference at the end of the day where the that hypothetical leader pulls support from if they get to enough support to garner the nomination. I do grant that a switch from Biden to a possible new leader is a double hit for him, as the spread increases at double the rate.

[ananda]

33. I would vote for Biden or Warren as the official nominee.

They are both great!

[bigbrother05]

37. Looks like Warren/Sanders gain, Biden/Harris/O'Rourke stable, Buttigieg drops

Others moving up, i.e. picking up undecideds or bottom tier defectors, Joe's holding firm.

[oasis]

42. Joe's taking names and kicking ass Thursday night. Let's see what

the polls tell us after that.

[Midwestocrat]

51. Outlier.

Gabbard is not at +3, for starters.

Check out the other polls. Biden's killing it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

[PDittie]

58. Precursor.

Gabbard tied Castro in Texas with three percent ten days ago. (Both will be moving up everywhere after last night.)

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/17/trump-reelection-50-50-biden-orourke-lead-democrats-ut-tt-poll/

[Hekate]

52. As Claire McCaskill just pointed out, Biden's numbers remain steady while the real movement...

...is below him. She says that Elizabeth Warren's gains are largely coming from Bernie Sanders, and not at all from Joe Biden supporters.

[mtnsnake]

54. The Biden supporters should accept the fact that the free fall has begun

and should start considering other options for candidates because it's only gonna get worse for Joe once the debates begin. I wouldn't give up the ship on Biden just yet, though. There is always hope.

[Loki Liesmith]

55. Lol ok