Barack Obama in the 2007 Primary

[bluewater]

President Obama did not take the lead in ANY major poll until Feb1-3 2008.

He did not start taking the lead permanently in all major polls until March 13-14 2008.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

So, calm down. Stop declaring winners and losers.

No consensus candidate has indisputably emerged yet.

[Cha]

1. Please Stop telling people what to do.

[bluewater]

2. oh, the irony.

It's a rhetorical flourish "stop declaring winners and losers", not a command. It's shorthand for saying "Perhaps we all should stop declaring winners and losers so early in 2019".

I apologize to All DU-ers that thought I was issuing orders. But didn't you also just tell me what to do?


Did this post showing that Barack Obama did not lead in ANY poll until Feb 1-3 2008 not seem interesting at all?

Didn't it at least indicate that declaring winners and losers NOW in 2019 might not be wise?

That was my intent with this post.

[Kind of Blue]

6. Intent well taken. It's the most interesting process post I've seen .

[MBS]

3. Yes, exactly right.

I try to remind myself of this important fact at least once a week. (A parallel, though darker, example is the 2016 Republican primary). Even in 2003: at this point in 2003, John Kerry was nowhere in the polls. He only started to gain real traction in late fall, and gained a significant lead only after winning the Iowa caucuses.

Plus, as you implied, this race is more complicated than any of those earlier races, with a record number of candidates , and as of yet no real consensus about front-runners.

My daily mantra (whenever I start to get anxious/stressed etc about the news of the moment, and God knows there's plenty of news each day to elicit that anxiety), is "Let the process play out, let the process play out."

One thing I've done for sanity preservation the last two weeks is to stop watching cable news and anything else that focuses on the horse race. Because it really is pointless at this point to obsess on who's "up," who's "down," who "won" the debate, etc etc etc. (I do confess my frustration with the 10-18 candidates who have an approximately 0.0% chance of winning, and I would consider it happy news – worth even watching the cable shows to hear– if those candidates dropped out of the race sooner rather than later).

[Tiggeroshii]

4. DONT TELL ME TO CALM DOWN YOU CALM DOWN!!

kidding.

[bluewater]

5. I aplogize for my punchy wrting style.

I am such a scamp with the rhetorical flourishes.

I apologize, "Calm down" was just shorthand for "Don't read too much into the significance of these early polls".

lol

[Recursion]

7. I don't think Bill Clinton had declared yet at this point in 1991

I mean, yes, I know it's an entirely different media world, but your point is a good one: it's waaaaaaay too early to put much stock in polling.

[SunsetDreams2]

8. K&R

That is a very good point, thank you for posting this.