New Suffolk University Iowa poll actually shows that Joe Biden maintains the same lead as last month

[Skya Rhen]

Last edited Tue Jul 2, 2019, 06:21 PM - Edit history (1)

and remains at 24% - the same as last month.


Yet some publications are making it seem as if Biden polled poorly in the recent Iowa poll. Why does the media engage in this type of misrepresentation?

Thankfully, the below article gives a more fair analysis:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/02/iowa-kamala-harris-surges-and-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-suffer/1626346001/

Snip...

In a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll, Biden continues to lead the field, backed by 24% of those who say they are likely to attend the Democratic caucuses in Iowa that will open the presidential contests next year. Harris jumped to second place, at 16%, leapfrogging over Sanders, whose support sagged to single digits. At 9%, he finished fourth, behind Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%.

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So, nothing has changed with Biden since last month. He is still at 24% and he still maintains the same 8 point lead. The only change is that Harris switched places with Sanders. He was at 16% last month, now she is at 16% this month.

[calguy]

1. The biggest loser in the latest poll numbers

Is Bernie Sanders. Hands down.

[onecaliberal]

2. That's why I had to step away from it. I can't listen to any more lies and bullshit.

[Peacetrain]

3. But but but but..

I oped yesterday that we have not seen a change in Bidens support on the local level..so I am not a bit surpised by that.. Bidens people are holding very steady..

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287184392

What I am surprised at is the movement in Warrens numbers, granted she was taking Sanders people.. Harris has been pretty popular with people, but I do not know how strong those numbers will be 2 weeks from now..

She shocked the starch out of a lot of people when she turned on Biden.. She had apparently planned this, but she turned and basically talked just to Biden and backhandedly called him a racist without saying it.. his people have not moved.. so she has pulled numbers from someone.. and have to wait and see.. as people reexamine, which is going on right now

[gldstwmn]

4. The date of this poll is 6/24.

[Skya Rhen]

8. No it is not - open the link and then kindly amend your comment...

[gldstwmn]

10. Oh I see. You amended the headline.

The actual headline is Poll: Biden and Sanders sink in Iowa as Kamala Harris surges. That's why I couldn't find it on Suffolk's website..

[gldstwmn]

11. Here's what it actually says:

Sen. Kamala Harris’ performance in the first Democratic debate helped her leapfrog over Sen. Bernie Sanders to take second place in a new Iowa poll.

A Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Tuesday shows Joe Biden still in first place, with 24% support. Harris’ support jumped to 16%, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%. Sanders dropped to single digits, with 9%.

Biden’s support was unchanged from a Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN poll of Iowa voters in early June. More than 4 in 10 voters said in the latest poll that Biden’s performance in the debate did not meet their expectations.


Harris more than doubled her support from the June poll, when she had 7%. Sanders had 16% support in last month’s poll.

The poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, the first state to hold its caucus in the presidential elections, from June 28-July 1. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

[Skya Rhen]

13. Cool - thanks...

[Cha]

5. Good to know the long knives from the M$M and

elsewhere aren't having such a devastating effect as they would have liked.

Thank you, Skya

[marylandblue]

6. There is no media plot here. Different polls show different results.

Other recent polls are national polls. This is one is just IA. Hr's been doing worse in IA than nationally all along. Might be because they have few African Americans there. Could also be that he hasn't visited enough. IA rewards those who spend a lot of time there.

[bluewater]

7. Because the Washington Examiner is a Right Wing Rag?

Other news sources point out that his lead in Iowa has stayed the same:

The survey has some sobering findings for Biden, a familiar figure in the state. His level of support didn't change from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll taken last month, but among those who watched him debate, more than four in 10 say he did worse than they expected. Among all of those surveyed, he is the second choice of 11%.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/02/iowa-kamala-harris-surges-and-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-suffer/1626346001/

I am not sure, but I think posting articles from the Washington Examiner is frowned upon since it's a notorious right wing source.

As for the poll results, you and the Washington Examiner are both a bit off base equating polls conducted by two different pollsters. As is USAToday actually. That's not considered a good practice, but why quibble. It will become clearer in the coming weeks and months what the trends actually are.

But the Washington Examiner was just flat out wrong / lying thru their teeth saying polls showed Biden declining in Iowa.

[Skya Rhen]

9. Thanks - that explains the blatant lie... I will update my OP to include the USA Today article...

[Celerity]

12. you're comparing two different polls taken at 2 different times and claiming Biden is doing the same

Suffolk and Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN (the gold standard and taken well before the dates of the Suffolk poll) are two entirely different polls taken at two different times

the Des Moines Register poll was taken June 2 to June 5, almost a month before the Suffolk poll

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/10/top2_ia_monday_6p.pdf

We have to wait to see what the new Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN poll says. I guarantee Biden's lead and vote share drops.

[peggysue2]

14. The more things change, the more they stay the same, eh?

This is wa-a-ay too deja vu for me, a 2016 redux because horseraces and chaos and finger-pointing are so very constructive.

I support Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, so I refuse to participate in the gnashing and grating of gears. Because all that leads to is a pulpy mess and a hobbled nominee at the end of the primary.

And that, I simply will not be a part of since the enemy is all things Trump and the corrupt Republicans who continually enable his ass.

All this noise and Joe Biden remains at the head of the pack with Kamala Harris picking up steam rolling over Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

That's the story. All the rest? Horseshit.

Thanks for the update, Skya.