Potential impact on 2020 if Justin Amash runs as Independent after leaving GOP

[Indygram]

Now that Amash has left the Republican Party there is a pretty good change he may be ramping up to run as an Independent in 2020, making it a 3 way race. I'm surprised no one is discussing it here yet so I thought I would start a thread on the topic and see how people think it will impact the election both in the primary and general.

I think that if he does run he is going to appeal to a lot of Independents and never Trump Republicans, especially if Democrats nominate someone who is really far left. That could end up actually helping Trump squeak out a win...or could even help Amash win in a fluke.
At the same time, if a more liberal Independent also runs it could even be a bigger question mark if the Democratic nominee is not appealing enough to progressives.

Any other thoughts?

[MBS]

1. first thing I worried about when I read the headlines this morning. n/t

[PoliticAverse]

2. Amash is more likely to run as a Libertarian.

See: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/444653-buzz-grows-rep-amash-will-challenge-trump-as-a-libertarian

And no, he wouldn't win.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. I don't think his running would hurt Democrats.

He would siphon off more votes from Trump than from a Democrat. I don’t think people will be scared off by a left wing candidate as long as they connect and have empathy, as well as the ability to explain their positions. Elizabeth Warren would be ideal for that.

I like O’ Rourke too, I hope his poll numbers rise.

[Indygram]

4. My biggest concern for Democrats is Health Care because

I am 100% certain that single payer banning private health insurance is a losing position. I like Warren as a person and I know she is sincere and authentic but average Americans are NOT in favor of getting rid of private insurance. They are supportive of a public option but Americans do NOT take kindly to having choices taken away. I really, really worry about this issue more than anything else. As a moderate Independent it's just not a position I support at all.

[Turin_C3PO]

5. I'd bet on Elizabeth Warren

walking back her position on banning private insurance. Yes, it would be a flip flop but I think she needs to do it.

The thing that EW probably realizes is that the most she can hope will pass Congress (if we have the Senate) is the public option. Medicare for all won’t be passed.

[Indygram]

6. I really hope they all walk it back because this is a CRUCIAL issue for me and many others

I have employer insurance and I have several health issues and I may have cancer. If it comes down to a candidate who wants to eliminate my coverage and put my very life at risk it's going to be very hard for me to support them. I don't want to have to choose between voting against Trump and dying. I want someone to vote FOR who respects my medical/health choice/autonomy.

[Turin_C3PO]

9. Well, I hope no matter what

you won’t consider voting for Trump and will vote for the Democrat . Any democratic nominee will keep health coverage safer than Donald Trump will, guaranteed. Like I said, even if a candidate wins that backs banning private insurance, it has no shot of getting through Congress.

I’m sorry to hear you’re going through a cancer worry, I’ve been there and it’s scary.

[Indygram]

13. Oh, I wouldn't

vote for Trump for a million dollars...I despise that MFer with a passion.

Absolute worst case scenario would be abstaining, which I do NOT want to do and at this point is not something I have to struggle with. When you are in a position where you feel your life may be at risk it puts things into a far more serious perspective. I will never be for Medicare for All. Medicare for America, absolutely. Public option, absolutely. This is exactly why Democrats need to think long and hard about who they nominate. I WANT with ALL of my heart to support the Democratic nominee. Imagine people who are less committed to that who have health issues and oppose eliminating private insurance. What do you think they are going to do?

[karynnj]

7. I doubt that any candidate will ban private insurance

Under what law would they do so?

It was controversial in 2009 even to add the "cadillac" insurance provision. What that did was to say that companies could not deduct as "cost" more than I think $25,000 a person in healthcare costs. This would mean that for all policies greater than that - that money is not subtracted from profits and the company would pay taxes on it. The very highest plans affected were for top management, including health clubs, golf memberships etc in addition to great health insurance, but it also hit some union plans. This gave those opposed to the ACA the incentive to ignore that only a very small part of the cost was above that limit - and the change was simply that the portion above the threshold could not be deducted by the employer.

This goes to the heart of why the US - alone in the world - has insurance tied to employment. The reason is that companies could deduct all payments and not pay taxes on that money. At the same time, the money the company pays for insurance is not included in the employee's income. What this means is that the government since at least the 1960s has greatly subsidized employer paid insurance. If this were considered as income, it would be on top of the income given in wages, so for many employees - the taxes would be considerable at their top marginal rate.

In 2009, my thought was that the reason this was fought was because it could lead to single payer. In fact, it is somewhat likely if a "Medicare buy-in" were made available, not just to the ACA marketplace, but as a policy that a company could buy, you might see companies moving their employees to it.

However, just as people now on Medicare, buy private Medigap plans, which are highly regulated by the government, to add a cap on medical expenditures and to insure you against costs after Medicare pays ( The plans are identified by a letter - like "F", which is the most comprehensive and most expensive and their specs are set by the government), there is no reason to think that even if the country - probably decades from now - moved to a British national health service type program - there would not be private insurance.

[Lonestarblue]

12. I agree.

After all, we still have private insurance with Medicare. People understand Medicare, and candidates should be using Medicare for All as a tagline. Even other countries with universal healthcare have private insurance. The idea is to cover the basics, with people having the option to extend their protection through private policies.

Plus, candidates need to reassure people that the goal is to transition into a new system over a period of years, giving people the option to keep employer insurance. Since fewer people are now covered by employers, the goal should be first to get people covered who do not have health insurance, then transition others into the system over time.

[SCantiGOP]

8. Every post-election analysis I've ever seen

Says that Libertarians siphon votes from the GOP. Very few potential Dem voters are motivated by the ‘small government’ argument that is at the core of their appeal to voters.
I would love to see Amash run as the Libertarian candidate. It would give those voters who won’t vote Dem yet see Trump as the insane con man he is somewhere to put their votes.

[bluewater]

10. Amash is a founding member of the Ultra Conservative House Freedom Caucus

Amash is an extreme conservative. He isn't going to siphon off any Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters.
If he runs on any third party line, he will just take votes from Trump.

Amash is a libertarian. [37][38][39] He is regarded as one of the most conservative members of Congress,[1][2][4] receiving high scores from conservative interest groups such as the Club for Growth, Heritage Action for America, and Americans for Prosperity,[2] and praise from conservative think tanks and nonprofit organizations.[40] He is a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus,[41] a group of hard-line conservative Republicans in the House.[3][41]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Amash

[Indygram]

15. He left that caucus too

not sure if you knew that.

[bluewater]

17. A leapord doesn't change his spots though

Thanks for the info. So, he's just wandering around in the political wilderness looking for traction somewhere?

Sounds like an opportunist, like Trump.

[JI7]

22. he left because they excuse Trump's corruption, not becsuse

he changed his ideology.

[brooklynite]

11. No chance he runs at all

He’s not ready to give up his House seat, and he knows the long odds of running third party.

[Midwestocrat]

20. Not true at all.

He's openly teasing the Libertarian Party ticket.

[demmiblue]

14. Potential Amash bid could hurt Biden in Michigan

Washington — Republican Rep. Justin Amash could play spoiler for the presidential race in Michigan, with his potential bid luring independent voters from the Democratic candidate in 2020, according to a new statewide survey.

The poll conducted last week of 600 likely Michigan voters and released to The Detroit News and WDIV-TV pitted Amash, a libertarian Republican who endorses impeaching Trump, in a hypothetical three-way White House race against Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.



he ran as a third-party Libertarian, while Biden received 45 percent and Trump 39 percent. Six percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted May 28-30, had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/05/amash-presidential-bid-hurts-biden-michigan/1331256001/

[UniteFightBack]

16. If he runs as a Libertarian then I think would be a good thing for us. Give Pukes some options. nt

[bluewater]

18. Yep. That's what that chart seems to show.

[Midwestocrat]

19. If the Dems run Warren, Sanders, or Harris...

We lose. He's a legitimate alternative to Trump or a too-far progressive, for the mainstream middle out there.

If we go moderate, he'll only take votes from Trump. We'll pull a Clinton 1992, and grab the center and everything left of it.

My $.02.

[DesertRat]

21. He won't get any Democratic votes

IMO, if he runs I think he'll siphon off enough Republican votes to help the Dems win big.