MorningConsult Poll remains in a holding pattern

[bluewater]

Last edited Tue Jul 23, 2019, 12:27 PM - Edit history (1)

538 B- rated: MorningConsult Poll
for the weeks of July 9th --> July 16th --> July 23rd

Biden...… 31% --> 32% --> 33%
Sanders.. 19% --> 19% --> 18%
Warren... 13% --> 14% --> 14%
Harris..... 14% --> 13% --> 13%
Buttigieg.. 6% ----> 5% ---> 5%
O'Rourke.. 3% ----> 3% ---> 3%

Poll's Margin of Error: +/- 2%

The MorningConsult poll has been consistently one of Biden's best polls yielding results for him in the low 30%'s compared to his national polling average of 28.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

For the second week in a row, the Morning consult poll has remained essentially unchanged, with some slight movement within the margin of error.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Are responders waiting for the next debate? It will be interesting to see if the July 30th/July31st debate shakes this up.

[highplainsdem]

1. The "holding pattern" has Biden +2 over the last 2 weeks, Warren +1, and everyone else -1 except

O'Rourke, who's holding steady at 3%.

[bluewater]

2. Yes it does, in a poll with +/-2% margin of error. That's a holding pattern.

yep, definitely a holding pattern. Feel free to argue with statisticians if you think it isn't.

And honestly, anyone just looking at the table of poll results can see how virtually unchanging they are. For any candidate.



The polls are what the polls are.

Let's see if this poll changes more after the next debate.

[Gustafo]

3. It's an outlier

Different from other polls.

[LincolnRossiter]

5. Eh. An average of credible, current polls has Biden's support in the high 20s with about a 14pt lead

over his nearest competitors. This poll isn't really a significant "outlier."

[Gustafo]

6. Is that RCP or five thirty eight?

Which aggregator has Biden up by 14 in the average?

[floppyboo]

4. Hi bluewater! As a statician, do you have access to trends for seasonal change?

Just wondering if it is normal for things to remain static in the summer historically.
Also wondering if there is a trend for larger fluctuations at other seasons and if this might be any indication of engagement.

And thanks for posting all the polls.