Washington Post-Opinion: If this Joe Biden runs, he'll win

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

Speaking at a firefighters’ conference Tuesday, former vice president Joe Biden didn’t leave much doubt that he’ll be running for president. “I appreciate the energy you showed when I got up here. Save it a little longer, I may need it in a few weeks,” he said after a raucous welcome. He added, “Be careful what you wish for.” His appearance reminds us of why he could be formidable.

First, if Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) wants to fundamentally change the United States (“Socialism!” Republicans will scream) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) says the system is so rigged that incremental changes won’t work, Biden appeals to Americans’ better angels, to the idea that President Trump doesn’t understand what makes America great. “That’s not who we are,” he says after describing the divisiveness and anger that Trump amplifies. “We’re better than that,” he cajoles the crowd. It’s a solid message for a candidate running in a fairly good economy with a president who’s stressing out the country. He also suggests a confidence of America post-Trump. (“There is nothing we can’t do,” Biden likes to say.)

Second, there are few politicians as adept at making a traditional economic message against stereotypical fat-cat Republicans. “I look around this room, I see the people who built this nation,” he told the crowd. And boy, have Republicans given him material to work with. He told the firefighters, “Did you see the budget that was just introduced? It cuts $845 billion ... in Medicare and ... $240 billion in Medicaid. Why? Because of a tax cut for the super-wealthy that created a deficit of $1.9 trillion and now they’ve got to make somebody pay for it.” Bingo.

Any presidential candidate who isn’t saying some variation of that every day is foolish. This is where you remind voters that Trump ran as a populist — better health care, middle-class tax relief, protect Medicare, get better trade deals — but governs as an oligarch — take away Obamacare, increase the gap between rich and everyone else with tax cuts for him and his pals, slash Medicare and get us into trade wars.

I am still undecided but I like Joe Biden a great deal

[BeyondGeography]

1. That simple, eh?

I like Joe, too, but nobody has the slightest clue who will win. President Donald Fucking Trump pretty much put an end to my faith in the predictive powers of the chattering class, particularly this far out.

[still_one]

3. Absolutely. Anyone who assumes otherwise I believe is misjudging the dynamics involved

[Mr Tibbs]

23. He would be hard pressed to get the under 40 vote

As they do not trust the establishment, and he is as establishment as a Democrat can get.

[still_one]

39. Let me recall again who won The California Democratic primary in 2016........

[Gothmog]

44. That is why Joe will have either Senator Harris or Beto as his running mate

[calimary]

25. Yeah, no kidding.

[still_one]

2. I think Joe Biden has the best chance of all our candidates to win the General Election, and if he

chooses someone like Kamala Harris, or one of other strong women candidates running for the Democratic nomination, I think our odds increase significantly more

[Gothmog]

45. I like the Biden/Harris ticket

Senator Harris is a great retail politician and is a great candidate. She is still on my list.

[redstateblues]

57. Dynamic duo. I would be enthusiastic about that ticket

[Renew Deal]

4. No he won't

And it will be ugly. His past actions will not play well in this era. It will be a shame to see him tarnished.

[lark]

12. Think you are wrong.

Every single candidate has dirt on them and if you think Repugs won't push it constantly, you're wrong. We need to have candidates with strength, with proven caring, someone who is for the working class, someone who has walked the talk - that is Biden. No, he made mistakes on bankruptcies and Thomas, but he learned from them. He is the most anti-war candidate and the most pro working class and has great bonafides on anti-corruption and he can re-establish the USA's reputation for moral governance quickly. drumpf will not be able to bully him, he will give him everything he can handle and lots more and I think would win - that's why he's my early choice.

[Renew Deal]

16. None of the things you mentioned are really going to cause him trouble

Some photographs at ceremonies will.

[TwilightZone]

26. Right, like these:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/joe-biden-grope-photograph/

Oh, wait, they're fake.

[Mr Tibbs]

31. The Trumpers have been bombarding him with this for six months now

Painting him as "Creepy". It will be brutal if he is the nominee.

[TwilightZone]

33. I don't care what the Republicans think.

And "we" should probably refrain from plugging right-wing talking points on a progressive/liberal website.

If we're going to discount candidates based on what the right-wing thinks of them, all of our candidates would be disqualified, including yours.

[Mr Tibbs]

36. That's what he would face - endless accusations of being a 'creepy uncle' type

He knows they have been doing this to him on Twitter, and that it would be turned up full blast to the point of drowning out everything else once he announces.

If he believes he could survive it then so be it, but Democratic candidates tend to fold up when the whole GOP unloads on them with bullshit like this.

If he is the nominee, I hope he just ignores the accusations. When Democratic politicians react to conspiracy theories against them, I believe it makes them look weak.

[elleng]

43. Right, and Right.

I don't care what the Republicans think.

And "we" should probably refrain from plugging right-wing talking points on a progressive/liberal website.

[John Fante]

53. Bernie would get bombarded worse. He's a self-admitted socialist FFS.

[Gothmog]

46. trump is terrified of Biden and wants to run against an unelectable candidate like sanders

Biden scares trump which is a good thing

[Awsi Dooger]

13. I think it would be like Republicans nominating McCain in 2008

Compromise somewhat reluctant pick emerging from a very large field. Solid man and not a terrible choice but once the campaign begins you realize he fit better in an earlier cycle at a younger age, and this time all the weaknesses start to show up against a more dynamic campaigner who owns enormous situational advantages.

I think it would be a steady leak and indeed ugly in totality. Tarnished is the proper word and I would hate to see it.

Al Gore was sharp enough to understand his best chance was gone. He didn't risk against an incumbent. Biden should do the same. We need someone younger and more charismatic to steal the presidency from an incumbent. Solid seems sufficient now but it wouldn't play out that way in fall 2020. Don't be trapped in today without wisely projecting tomorrow. We need special.

[Turin_C3PO]

38. Do you think O'Rourke would fit the bill?

I’ve been thinking a lot about him...

[Mr Tibbs]

14. He would be an awesome president, but...

I don't think he will be able to shake the "establishment" label.

[Renew Deal]

15. If that's his biggest problem

He doesn't have a problem

[Mr Tibbs]

24. It's a huge problem if he wants people under 40 to GOTV for him

Conformity won't sell this time around either.

[Renew Deal]

42. OK

[Gothmog]

47. The polling that I have seen does not support this claim

I have seen no polling that supports this claim. In any event, adding Senator Harris or Beto as running mate will solve this concern

I really do not think that sanders is electable and that trump would beat sanders easily if sanders was the nominee

[NurseJackie]

18. And, how long has Bernie been in Washington?

[Mr Tibbs]

19. Long enough that everyone knows he is neither a Democrat nor a Republican

[NurseJackie]

20. Oh brother! That totally cracks me up!

Long enough that everyone knows he is neither a Democrat nor a Republican

Oh brother! That totally cracks me up! Evading the question does not change the facts.

[Mr Tibbs]

21. And as such is neither part of the Democratic or Republican establishments

It ain't rocket science

[LongtimeAZDem]

28. So, you're saying that he lied when he signed the pledge to run as a Democrat?

[Mr Tibbs]

29. So you are saying he is a longtime member of the Democratic party/establishment?

No. He only joined the Democratic party because:

A: He caucuses with them
B: Because in our rigged 2 party system, running as one of the two is the only way to get elected

[LongtimeAZDem]

30. So, that's a yes.

The pledge he signed:

affirms to the DNC chairman that they "are a Democrat ... are a member of the Democratic Party; will accept the Democratic nomination; and will run and serve as a member of the Democratic Party."

According to you, he lied.

[Mr Tibbs]

32. It's a no, obviously

He isn't part of the Democratic establishment. He has always been an outsider.

[NurseJackie]

35. He's done no such thing!

He only joined the Democratic party because:

He's done no such thing! He has NOT joined the Democratic party.

[NurseJackie]

34. LOL! It's not working! Nobody's buying it!

And as such is neither part of the Democratic or Republican establishments

LOL! It's not working! Nobody's buying it!

[Gothmog]

52. According to Nate, sanders has some high negatives

From Nate Silver. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-and-bernies-support-isnt-just-name-recognition/

Sanders, conversely, has a high floor of support and a lot of enthusiasm behind him, but that’s tempered by having some Democrats — 22 percent in the Iowa poll — who have an unfavorable view of him. If that number holds at 22 percent — and the other 78 percent of Democrats would consider voting for Sanders — he shouldn’t have a lot of problems. Still, 22 percent is high as compared with the scores for candidates such as Biden, Booker and Harris, and Sanders will face a new type of scrutiny for him as one of the frontrunners who is taking fire from all sides, instead of being in a two-candidate race as the underdog against Clinton.

[BannonsLiver]

17. Meh

Most people care about his ideas for things that affect them like taxes, jobs and healthcare when deciding whether or not they will vote for him.

There have been repeated attempts to tar him over Anita Hill by those who bizarrely somehow seem to hold Biden more responsible for Clarence Thomas’ behavior than they do Clarence Thomas but it just doesn’t seem to stick.

[bigtree]

5. jennifer rubin, the republican who used to write hit pieces on the Obama administration for the WaPo

...she needs to stop talking about the Democratic party like she has some stake in it.

She never has, and never will. I'm not impressed that she's a never-Trumper. She's been promoting republicans for just this moment. No matter that she painted a rosy picture of republican rule while she was castigating the Democratic presidency for eight years, right? A republican party which has been revealed to be more like Russian autocracy than American democracy. That's her legacy.

Rubin needs to keep our party's name out of her mouth.

[Garrett78]

10. Every Democrat will be bashing Trump's budget cuts, but Rubin acts like that's a novelty.

[still_one]

61. She is an opinion writer for the Washington Post with a particular point of view which people can

agree or disagree with

[mac56]

6. "We're Better Than That" would be an awesome campaign slogan.

Hell, I'll wear it on a ball cap.

[True Blue American]

8. I do not wear hats, but a nice sweat shirt would

Suit me fine!

[Garrett78]

9. It's what Harris has been saying for many months already. Just replace "that" with "this."

"We are better than this." ~Kamala Harris

[bigtree]

11. that's absolutely right

Link to tweet

[R B Garr]

7. She's right, and I bet some of those responding didn't even watch his

speech to the firefighters.

His speech was excellent, and those comments about the budget cuts were about real-life events and who they impact. People want to hear about real things instead of arguing over socialism. Joe Biden keeps it real. Those firefighters loved him. Jill Biden is also a huge asset.

[PatSeg]

62. I remember Joe's speech to the firefighters

back in 2007. It was very similar and they loved him. I showed that speech to numerous people who became lifelong Biden supporters because of it. It was a real life Aaron Sorkin moment!

I've been an admirer and supporter of Joe almost as long as I have been on Democratic Underground, but I have to say he generally didn't get a lot of support from many DUers. It seems to have gotten a lot better during the Obama years, but I do see some of the same old criticisms emerge, though they only seem to come to light during primaries. The same thing happened to Hillary - The most admired woman in the world, as long as she wasn't running for president! Hmmm.

It is going to be a long, exhausting primary. We'll all need to take lots of breaks.

[Gothmog]

22. The Joe Biden 5-Point Plan

I like this plan https://politicalwire.com/2019/03/13/the-joe-biden-5-point-plan/

Mike Allen outlines the case that Joe Biden is expected to make if he runs for president:

The great white (voter) hope: I can bring back the rural, white, mostly male voters who sealed the presidency for Donald Trump. Think Wisconsin.

I’m liberal — just not that liberal. And too liberal won’t win.

Been there, done that: In this dangerous chaotic world, we need a steady hand — not someone who’s playing or practicing president.

Remember last year when I said: “If we were in high school, I’d take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him.” Well, game on: Trump won’t intimidate or bully me.

If you’re looking for a rising star, there’s a low-risk place on the ticket — next to me.

A Biden/Harris or a Biden/Beto team would be hard to beat

[hueymahl]

27. Winnability is a huge issue

To be clear, there is no other issue as important as the ability to defeat the orange menace. I guess that makes me a one-issue voter!

That said, it is not clear that Biden is the leader on that issue, despite the compelling arguments asserted in the article.

[Mme. Defarge]

37. I think Biden

would be the best person to right the ship, help us reclaim our bearings and our identity as Americans with a steady hand and his formidable foreign policy experience for the next 4-year term. That way we might better avoid the whiplash associated with electing a candidate on the opposite end of the political spectrum from the current resident of the White House. After that I think a good progressive candidate would be able to win and govern with a larger consensus.

IMO

[nitpicker]

40. I think his ship has sailed

1. his age

2. a centrist versus the desires from the progressive contingent

3. his previous baggage

((I do like "Uncle Joe" too, but one must face how other people might think))

[CrossingTheRubicon]

41. Joe Biden is by far our strongest candidate

Biden/Booker 2020

[Gothmog]

48. I really like Senator Booker

I was at the state party fundraiser where we made him a honorary Texan. Booker is a great speaker

[CrossingTheRubicon]

49. If I was going only with my heart, I'd be for Booker. He has everything I want in a president.

But if the conditions in Nov 2020 are similar to those we have today (and they may well not be) I think we are in for a very tough election in the Electoral College. The EC stacks the decks against us, as all us Democrats are aware.

As with all Democratic loyalists, 2016 was traumatizing for me. Now we need to make sure we defeat Donald Trump and end our national nightmare. This imperative--I readily admit--leaves this Democrat feeling risk-averse.

Cold reasoning tells me that Joe Biden, a liberal I very much admire and under other circumstances I'd see as a respected elder statesman in the party who deserves his rest, is the guy who seems purpose-built to defeat Trump. The perfect anti-Trump.

A return to the Blue column of WI, MI, and PA, which I'm convinced Biben would deliver, would be enough to win in 2020 assuming we hold HRC's states. Plus I think Biden would pick up additional states.

Am I convinced that Booker, or Harris, Klobuchar, or Warren could win back these states or some other constellation of states to secure the win? I am not. I like them all. But their paths to victory seem far less certain.

I think well-thinking Americans are desperate for a return to normalcy after a shocking lapse into madness. A Joe Biden presidency is one that I believe would be very healing to our nation and one that would restore our damaged position in the free world.

So for me, I'd love to see a Biden/Booker ticket. In addition to Biden's healing character, I think Booker also speaks to the best in people. Together they'd provide a balm in this age of toxic populism.

[Gothmog]

50. Booker is amazing

When Booker was at Oxford, he became the head of the Jewish student body (no Corey is not Jewish) but he will versed in the Torah. I am tempted to support him and will probably donate to him at some point

Link to tweet

[CrossingTheRubicon]

51. I strongly hope (and expect) that Cory Booker will be the president one day.

I respect him immensely. Presidential material beyond question.

His biography and character are exemplary. I only wish I had two votes. I will send donations. The CA primary will be hard for me.

[NYC Liberal]

55. He's run multiple times and never won a primary.

I’m highly skeptical that the 4th time is a charm.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

56. The Bernie who's running will win... he's not just critical of tRump, but is right on every issue.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[sfwriter]

58. He has a loooong record.

I'm not sure I agree with that prediction. Lots of positions and actions to challenge there.

I can't imagine that his defense of marriage act vote, Iraq war vote, handling of Anita Hill, or vote for the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act in 2005 will go over that well. I think he has helped pass some of the laws we are trying to reform where drugs and sentencing are concerned.

He is also very old, or is 76 a new 50? If Bernie is too old, then Biden is too old. I think younger voters are looking for someone who is facing the same consequences of the issues bearing down on us as they are. It appears the country STILL wants change. Comfy or not, he's the same ole shoe.

Of course if it is all decided on money and connections, then yeah, he probably gets it.

[Stuart G]

60. If Biden is our candidate, he will win. I know a strong Republican voter.

Six months ago, he told me he would vote for Biden as his "best choice" among any candidate. Biden stands out the strongest, most solid, most experienced, and he has been through a whole lot.
.. If my friend will vote for him, then he is not the only Republican who will vote for Joe. Compare Joe to Trump. Guess what? When you do that it is all over. Nothing more needs to be said.