7/25 Quinnipiac OHIO poll: Biden beats Trump by 8 points, others tie Trump or lose by 1 point

[highplainsdem]

New poll this morning:

https://poll.qu.edu/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=3633

Former Vice President Joseph Biden leads President Donald Trump 50 - 42 percent in the critical swing state of Ohio, the only leading Democratic candidate to top the Republican incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The other leading Democratic contenders each are locked in a dead heat with President Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:

46 percent for Trump to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 45 percent;
Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
44 - 44 percent between Trump and California Sen. Kamala Harris;
44 - 44 percent between Trump and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg;
44 percent for Trump to 43 percent for New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.

Women, black voters and independent voters give Biden his lead in the matchup with Trump. Biden leads 53 - 40 percent among women, as men are split with 46 percent for Biden and 45 percent for Trump. White voters are divided, with 48 percent for Trump and 45 percent for Biden. Black voters go Democratic 84 - 8 percent.

Independent voters go to Biden 55 - 32 percent. Republicans back Trump 86 - 10 percent as Biden leads 96 - 2 percent among Democrats.

"Former Vice President Joseph Biden calls himself a blue-collar guy. With Ohio certainly a blue-collar state, it is no surprise he is the Democrat who runs best against President Donald Trump and is solidly ahead in the Democratic primary in the Buckeye State," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Biden runs best against President Trump in every Quinnipiac University state poll so far. To get reelected, Trump will need to win the industrial Midwest. Ohio certainly is key to that plan."

-snip-

Emphasis added.

[OrlandoDem2]

1. My concern is that there may be people who tell a pollster that they'll vote for Biden

But in the privacy of a voting booth vote for Trump.

We simply must work hard to get our Democratic voters.

[honest.abe]

2. If we take Ohio and PA which Biden could deliver, it will be nearly impossible for Trump to win.

[highplainsdem]

3. True. And state polls show Biden beating Trump (by wider margins than others) in a lot more

states than that.

There are polls indicating Biden could beat Trump in Texas.

[Amishman]

6. Polls don't seem to capture rural conservative whites very well

This is part of how we missed PA, MI, and WI going red in 2016, and why we overstated Bredesen's chances in 2018, and also to a lesser extent Beto's chances in TX in 2018.

Trump outperformed the poll average by about 6% in 2016 in Ohio. It was polling as a tight race and ended up a blowout.

Even in polls in red states or rust belt swing states is still probably losing. Biden's advantage in this type of polling should get our attention, especially if it continues to persist as his name recognition / familiarity advantage fades.

[Skya Rhen]

11. This is why we cannot take chances with the weaker-polling candidates. Biden is our best chance.

Hopefully we elect the strongest possible candidate - or we get Trump again, for certain...

[bearsfootball516]

4. Hard to imagine taking Ohio and not taking Michigan, with Ohio being noticeably redder than Michigan

But I see what your point is, winning Ohio makes it extremely tough for Trump to win.

[honest.abe]

7. Yes. Exactly.

Thats a best case scenario for Trump if we win Ohio and PA.

[Amimnoch]

16. Ohio's been the "kingmaker" since JFK.

Personally, I'm putting a lot of focus on this. Every president since JFK has had Ohio's EC votes.

Ohio tends to trend with where the results end up going.

[FailureToCommunicate]

5. I like the sound of that.

Well...maybe not the "nearly" qualifier.

[Celerity]

9. the only way, if the rest of that map stays as you put it, Rump could win is flip NV or NH or both

That is very doubtful.

The true danger (and more likely to happen) is that map stays exactly the same except Biden wins MI and loses OH. Trumps ends up with 270 on the nose. Even if Biden takes ME-2, it is 269-269, and the Rethugs control 26 House delegations (takes 26 votes to win the POTUS in the House in the event of a EC tie) with almost zero chance for us to even take back one. WI (we could draw even) and FL are the only chances for us, but the swing districts are gerrymandered up to strong Rethug, and there are other state delegations we could actually lose. Even if we did deny a winner in the House, unless we take back the Senate, Pence would be president, unless we also take back the Senate. If it was, incredibly tied there, then the Speaker of the House becomes POTUS.

The country will partially tear itself apart if Rump wins via a 269-269 tie and then by one vote in the House, especially if there is a super close race in one or more states and/or ME-2, plus massive voter suppression and Russian interference..

[honest.abe]

12. yeah, that 269-269 tie is a scary thought.

And there is a reasonable possibility it could happen.

[Celerity]

14. there is another possibilty in the event of a 269-269 tie, and they would be even more chaotic

1 Faithless elector(s)

Lets say it ends up tied at 269-269 and Biden wins the popular vote by 3 or 4 million. You could have an elector flip to give him 270. Imagine the pressure on such a person. You also could have it go the other way, and someone flips to Rump, although that would be far less likely I think. IF there are multiple defections, and neither Rump nor Biden have 269, then the House cn vote on 'Someone Else'. That would be a way for the Rethugs (if they still hold 26 delegations) to replace Rump with another Rethug.

Even more bizarre, IF the Senate, post 2020 is dead tied 50-50, the Rethugs lose a state delegation so only have 25 (to get there we would have to flip a seat in either or both FL and/or WI and the Rethugs gain zero more (PA and MI are tied so we couldn't lose a net seat in either one or anywhere else), and the EC is 269-269 (meaning that it would be on course course for the Speaker of the House to be named POTUS, which probably means Pelosi) you MIGHT have a Rump elector flip to give Biden the POTUS over Pelosi. Obviously if the Rethugs regain the House in 2020, they would not flip, as they would still get a Rethug POTUS.

IF Rump won in the House but somehow we also did take back the Senate, we would have a Rethug POTUS and a Democratic VPOTUS.

Finally, and I do not know the Constitutionality of it, BUT if it did go to the Speaker for POTUS, and because the Speaker can be ANYONE eligible, as they do not have to be a House Member, you could have (and this is the most absolutely bonkers scenario I have ever seen, as all the rest have been discussed) a Rethug House (if they take it back) chose TRUMP as Speaker, and thus POTUS. Also, a Dem House (if that same scenario is Constitutional) could choose BIDEN as Speaker, and thus POTUS.

That last paragraph may or may not be legal, I honestly do not know. I also think that the Rethugs would probably not pick Trump if they could 'swap' him out. Who the hell knows, lolol.

269-269 and the Rethugs having 26 votes in the House is the most likely (other than a straight 270 plus EC win for either candidate, which is 95% plus the way it will go.)

[honest.abe]

15. It could get very ugly if any of that happens.

Good information. Thanks!

[Celerity]

17. yw! let's just hope Rump is crushed in the EC

[honest.abe]

18. Yep. That will resolve it all!

[Gothmog]

8. These are great polling numbers

[highplainsdem]

19. Yes, they are.

[Skya Rhen]

10. How does the saying go? Oh - "Follow the leader"...

[thesquanderer]

13. These are the kinds of polls that matter to me...

...because I am interested not just in beating Trump, but in carrying as many states as possible. It will help get us as Democratic a Congress as possible. And an electoral blowout will be less divisive in our country than a squeaker would be. It also sends a positive message to the world.

My counter-argument fear is that we nominate Biden on the basis of best polling numbers against Trump, but we start losing those numbers once Biden starts debating Trump, and the election ends up being a squeaker--or even a loser!--anyway. Biden will have to really up his game in future Dem debates for me to consider making the switch. His positions don't really matter much to me. I lean more left, but I could still be content with a more moderate administration. What I want to see is someone who will impress on the debate stage against Trump, because in the end, I think victory could depend on that, and that's where I worry that Biden could be weak.

[Cha]

20. KR! For Joe Biden.. my

favorite!

Mahalo, highplains

[Tarheel_Dem]

21. Let's hope Ohioans have come to their senses. n/t