Joe Biden's Poll Numbers Mask an Enthusiasm Gap

[bluewater]

There are signs of a disconnect between support for Mr. Biden in polls and excitement for his campaign on the ground in Iowa.
By Katie Glueck

Joseph R. Biden Jr. is coasting in the national polls. Surveys show him ahead of his Democratic rivals in hypothetical matchups against President Trump. He has maintained a lead in Iowa all summer, despite facing months of controversies over his record and his campaign missteps.

But less than two weeks before Labor Day, when presidential campaigns traditionally kick into high gear, there are signs of a disconnect between his relatively rosy poll numbers and excitement for his campaign on the ground here, in the state that begins the presidential nominating process.

In conversations with county chairs, party strategists and dozens of voters this week at Mr. Biden’s events, many Democrats in Iowa described a case for Mr. Biden, the former vice president, that reflected shades of the one his wife, Jill Biden, bluntly sketched out on Monday. “You may like another candidate better, but you have to look at who is going to win,” she said, citing Mr. Biden’s consistent lead in early surveys.

The first ad of Mr. Biden’s campaign, released this week in Iowa, flashed some of his positive poll results against Mr. Trump on screen, and voter after voter cited those numbers in outlining their support for him, saying that defeating the president was their most urgent priority.

There are signs of an enthusiasm gap among Iowa voters. “He’s doing O.K., but I think a lot of his initial strength was name recognition,” one county chairwoman said.

That stands in stark contrast to the way voters explain their support for candidates like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who drew 12,000 people to an event this week in Minnesota, Iowa’s northern neighbor, or Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who also draws large crowds and maintains a core base of die-hard fans.

They and others trail Mr. Biden in most polls and face plenty of their own skeptics, but they also have followings rooted in zealous support for their ideas rather than the political calculus that many voters describe in assessing Mr. Biden.

The former vice president certainly has devoted fans, in Iowa and around the country, and continues to enjoy good will and respect from Democratic voters.

But the risks of a campaign argument that is heavily reliant on strong poll numbers, which can be fickle in a tumultuous election, were on vivid display throughout Mr. Biden’s trip to Iowa, as voters repeatedly emphasized that their support for him was closely linked to what they perceived as his strength against Mr. Trump.

It’s a case they make even as polls have shown several other candidates, namely Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren and Senator Kamala Harris of California, running strongly against Mr. Trump, and as strategists caution that such theoretical matchups are hardly predictive of an election that’s more than a year away. The polls at this early stage are also partly a reflection of a candidate’s name recognition.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/22/us/politics/joe-biden-trump-2020.html

The Iowa voters have seen more of Joe Biden than the country at large, that may explain why he is in a close contest with Warren and Sanders there, but has a more comfortable lead in national polls.

Iowa voters are seeing the actual 2019 version of Joe, not recalling from memory the 2008 Biden.

[tblue37]

1. The more voters see of Warren, the better they like her. nt

[bronxiteforever]

26. +1 Very classy phrasing.

I would be very happy and enthusiastic if Senator Warren is the nominee even though I support Joe right now. She is so impressive.

[Demsrule86]

40. Not all voters or constituencies in our party...which is why I find it unlikely she will be the

nominee.

[Control-Z]

2. This is becoming a very bad

habit.

Can you tell us what you like about your candidates plan for gun safety instead?

[bluewater]

3. Feel free to check out my journal for articles about both Warren and Harris.

There are tons of them, I think both would beat Trump and do a great job as President.



Sorry if reports from the New York Times that point out how well Biden, Warren and Sanders are actually doing on the ground in Iowa are unsettling.

[Control-Z]

7. No? Nothing you like about her gun safety plan?

You like the plan? But you don't want to talk about it?

So, no?

[bluewater]

11. Deflection noted! ;) But back to Iowa for a moment....

But back to the subject of the OP New York Times article:

The former vice president certainly has devoted fans, in Iowa and around the country, and continues to enjoy good will and respect from Democratic voters.

But the risks of a campaign argument that is heavily reliant on strong poll numbers, which can be fickle in a tumultuous election, were on vivid display throughout Mr. Biden’s trip to Iowa, as voters repeatedly emphasized that their support for him was closely linked to what they perceived as his strength against Mr. Trump.

It’s a case they make even as polls have shown several other candidates, namely Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren and Senator Kamala Harris of California, running strongly against Mr. Trump, and as strategists caution that such theoretical matchups are hardly predictive of an election that’s more than a year away. The polls at this early stage are also partly a reflection of a candidate’s name recognition

.

[Control-Z]

17. That is not what I asked you.

You are deflecting, as I asked the first question.

It's another tried and true response practiced by some. Never answer a question about your own candidate.

Eventually I'll find someone who is not afraid to answer.

Have a day!

[Jakes Progress]

41. What habit?

Do you mean you would like to start an OP about Waren's gun issues? Why don't you do that? Can you comment on the OP's reference to the NYT article? If not, why not start the discussion you would like to have instead of deflecting here?

Biden is an admirable candidate. I personally think that most of his lead is name recognition, but if name recognition gets him the nomination, I will donate, canvass, and vote for him enthusiastically. He seems to be mostly a nice guy. I think he might use Barack to help him fill his cabinet and pick advisors. That would be good.

[Autumn]

4. The more he campaigns nationally and separates himself from Obama, as he will have

to do sooner or later his numbers will fall more.

[hlthe2b]

5. Honestly, when all else fails, write about an "enthusiasm gap"... How many times did we hear this

with HRC? Still, she decisively won the popular vote and sans all the electoral interference and propaganda (and Comey) would very likely have won the EC.

"Enthusiasm gap" when the alternative will be Trump? Umm, no. I don't see it--with any of our potential nominees.

[bluewater]

8. Poll shows Biden, Warren tied with Trump in Arizona

perhaps you missed today's latest poll?

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are statistically tied with President Trump in Arizona, a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in a quarter century, according to a new poll.

The new survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based nonpartisan pollster, shows Biden leading Trump by a 45 percent to 43 percent margin. Trump leads Warren 44 percent to 43 percent, the poll found.

Both results fall within the survey's margin of error, a sign that Trump will have to work harder to win Arizona's electoral votes than any Republican nominee this century.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/458344-poll-shows-biden-warren-tied-with-trump-in-arizona

Isn't it great that Biden isn't the only Democrat that polls better than Trump in head to head match ups?

And of course there are more polls showing this...

[hlthe2b]

14. I am not pushing one candidate over another. As your poll shows, my point is made.

[BeyondGeography]

18. The point is we have a lot of choices on electability

We don’t have to suck-it-up and vote for Joe (or swallow, or whatever Jill was saying), especially when there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the same alternative candidates who can beat Trump will drive turnout among women and younger voters better than Biden and lose fewer voters to 3rd party candidates than he would.

[hlthe2b]

20. Why do you have t be so unpleasant? Gawd, "suck up or swallow?" How damned ugly.

[BeyondGeography]

24. Jill Biden: 'Swallow a little bit' and vote for Joe

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/jill-biden-joe-biden-beat-donald-trump/index.html

Yeah, I found that offensive, too.

[cwydro]

50. That's actually what Jill Biden said.

It wasn’t such a good choice of words.

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. It was the enthusiasm gap that caused HRC to lose the Rust Belt

Due to Third party voters or voters who stayed home. Some of that was caused by Russian interference, but that wasn't the only factor.

We need a nominee who will inspire turnout and can withstand whatever Brad Parscale's international network of social media ratfuckers throws at them.

The enthusiasm gap is a real concern, if Biden can't inspire massive voter turnout, Trump wins.

The enthusiasm gap isn't limited to Iowa:

There’s an enthusiasm gap for Biden among some primary voters, the poll found. A majority of those surveyed, 56%, said Warren would fight “a great deal” for people like them, and 54% said the same of Sanders. Only 38% described Biden that way.

When asked who has been the most “passionate” so far, Warren and Sanders each had 28%, while Biden had just 14%. Warren, who has touted her policy proposals, was seen as the most specific candidate, with 42%, while Harris was seen as the strongest with 32%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-21/biden-leads-in-new-cbs-democratic-poll-but-faces-enthusiasm-gap

[hlthe2b]

13. Defeating Trump IS THE ENTHUSIASM

[bluewater]

15. Then isn't it GREAT many Dems are beating Trump?

From the A Rated Fox News Poll:

[hlthe2b]

16. You keep posting this to me, even though I make clear I'm not pushing one candidate over another.

I'm glad Warren is doing well. I want many to do well. I simply don't like the very disingenuous attacks on Biden or any other candidate under the guise of "enthusiasm gap".

[bluewater]

23. "Beating Trump is the enthusiasm", I agree!

That's why I posted the Fox News poll again, to show how many f our candidates are beating Trump head to head.

I understand that you are not pushing any single candidate but discussing "enthusiasm" in general.

So a point about that...

There IS a significant difference in the national polling and the polling in Iowa. That is what the New York Times article in the OP is all about.

I believe Iowa Democrats want to defeat Trump as much as anyone elsewhere, I also believe they have seen more of our candidates than the nation at large has. So the fact they are less enthusiastic about Biden compared to Warren and Sanders is significant.

[Thekaspervote]

25. Thank you! I do have Biden as my fav...will happily vote for the nominee

[George II]

6. This is the same thing that people tried to pin on Hillary Clinton, and she still....

...got 3+ million more voters and but for circumstances beyond her control ("Democrats" staying home, "Democrats" voting for Jill Stein, "Democrats" attacking her, Russian interference, etc.) she would be President today.

[elocs]

10. Since we're talking about Democrats here, then enthusiasm and inspiration are all important.

Republicans will vote for their candidates like it was their duty, but Democratic voters so often need to be motivated to support a candidate who enthuses and inspires them.
Biden certainly has the experience, credentials, and name recognition to win and he did give an inspirational speech a couple of weeks ago,
but inspiring enough to make people enthusiastic about his candidacy, probably not.

Biden supporters may not be enthusiastic about their candidate, but they are very, very defensive on his behalf.

[Thekaspervote]

12. Or possibly you missed this

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/19/joe-biden-exciting-candidate

“Joe Biden, the boring candidate.. that’s why he’s doing so well.”

[Sloumeau]

19. That was supposed to be an article about a lack of enthusiasm among Biden supporters

and yet I do not seem to find a single quote from an actual Biden supporter. Instead, the quotes seem to be from people like a county chairwoman who sure does not sound like a Biden fan. Instead, we get a general statement like this:

"In conversations with county chairs, party strategists and dozens of voters this week at Mr. Biden’s events, many Democrats in Iowa described a case for Mr. Biden, the former vice president, that reflected shades of the one his wife, Jill Biden, bluntly sketched out on Monday. “You may like another candidate better, but you have to look at who is going to win,” she said, citing Mr. Biden’s consistent lead in early surveys. "

This sounds like what all of the fans of other candidates keep saying about Biden. Were any one of the Biden supporters included in the people that they talked to, or did they just talk to fans of other candidates about their opinions about why people are voting for Biden? I think that she did not quote a single Biden fan..and I think the reason is she did not look long enough to find one and actually talk to one.

According to the latest A+ rated (by fivethirtyeight.com) Monmoth poll, Biden leads in polling in Iowa with 28% of the vote, yet the writer could not find one Biden fan to actually quote? If fans of other candidates seem to lack enthusiasm for Biden, that should surprise no one. Every Biden fan that I talk to has a big smile on his or her face. Lack of enthusiasm? You keep telling yourself that, Katie Gluek.

The Monmoth poll is here:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_080819.pdf/

[emmaverybo]

35. Interesting. Just watched a "person on the street" poll about Biden and electability on MSNBC.

The two people interviewed happened to be pretty anti-Biden. Guess no one on the street could happen not to be. They stopped at two. Got their anti-Biden sound-bites.

Media doesn’t want to hear from Biden supporters.

Hard to show our support and its basis when we can’t get representation on air.

[honest.abe]

21. This is precisely the type of shit that turns off voters.

If Biden is our nominee and people even in our own party say he's boring or lacks "excitement", then what message does that send to people on the fence about voting? I will tell you.. they will interpret this as "why bother".

I hope these folks get over their "boredom" come Nov 2020 when we need everyone on board and enthusiastically supporting our nominee regardless of any perceived lack of excitement. If beating Trump doesn't excite any voter on the left then I dont know what will.

[procon]

22. Is Biden running on any of his past policy positions?

Are any candidates running on the same platforms that they held policies a decade (or a half century) in the past? Hairstyles not withstanding, do any of us still cling to the old erroneous ideas that we had in earlier days?

There is not one person in this election who does not come with a baggage train, but the only pertinent questions we can demand is:

1) have they knowledged errors from their previous positions

2) have they learned from their past mistakes

3) are their current policies relevant to today's pressing issues

[Thekaspervote]

27. Thank you!!

They all have their faults. The repubs are going to come after any and all!! We need to be building an impenetrable wall around our candidates ....show them we stand as one against them....please stop with the nonsense

[Freethinker65]

28. Once we have a nominee, there will be united enthusiasm. That is what will matter in the end.

Vote in the primary for your choice. Vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election.

[LAS14]

29. This is why I think Warren is a better bet than Biden. She generates enthusiasm...

... and has shown she can win over people who didn't experience her energy before. But I do worry about the 538 article that said she was showing no movement among some middle group.... can't remember if it was Obama/Trump voters or just independents. But some important group. Does anyone else remember this?

Anyway, in Biden's case we'd have to depend on the No More Trump energy, I think.

[Thekaspervote]

33. Maybe look at the link in post #12... gives insight into Biden's appeal

Yes, Biden fan, but will support all.

[LAS14]

34. Yeah, I can see some truth in that. nt

[honest.abe]

30. I would not consider the situation in Iowa as representative of what we need to win nationwide.

Iowa is about 90% white making it one of the least diverse states in the country.

If anything we should be discussing the enthusiasm gap Warren and Sanders have with black voters who will be key to our winning battleground states in 2020.

[emmaverybo]

36. +1

[emmaverybo]

31. Sanders and Warren appeal to enthusiasts, as they embrace an ideology yet to take hold among

larger numbers of people. One of the factors that keeps Sanders and Warrens candidacies alive is this fervor for policies which supporters believe will transform our political and economic systems. And oh, must have a woman, or finally the Revolution is here.

Both candidates are worthy.

But “enthusiasm” untested at large has the potential to diminish as “true believers” face a wider
electorate outside the candidates’ excited base.

I would bet on respect, love, trust anytime over “enthusiasm.” Biden is still one of the most trusted, beloved, and respected politicians in America. His message transcends political divisions and policy wars.

Supporters don’t have to make outsized claims about him and fan themselves into a state of near-worship. He has a resume that simply is unmatched by any other in the field.

I see these Biden hit pieces that enthusiasts for other candidates post daily. Biden supporters don’t seem to need to spend their research and posting time disparaging other candidates
and questioning their support.

Tells you something.

My little dog has a very big response to large breeds. Well, he knows he’s smaller.

He has to try harder, be louder, lunge first.

Booing the other team doesn’t show me enthusiasm alone. I read “running behind,” gotta get a break.

Biden supporters are more than enthusiastic. Many of us love Biden, are well comfortable with the idea that the most qualified candidate is also the most electable, and understand what booing, as opposed to cheerleading, signals. Like Biden himself, we are steady as we go.
—————————————————————————————-
Fix the damage, Joe. (Busterbrown), America and the world needs you.

[Thekaspervote]

32. Thx.. very well thought out post!!

[namahage]

44. "Biden supporters don't seem to need to

spend their research and posting time disparaging other candidates."

See further down for a nice counterexample, with which you seem to be in agreement.

[emmaverybo]

46. There's a difference between the occasional critical comment and starting an entire thread based

on an anti-Biden hit piece or some innuendo, especially for those who seem to make it their daily (or three times a day) job to do so, with very few or zero entries on any other candidate and no
cheerleading for their preferred.

“Professional” anti-Biden posters act like ministries of censorship, operate every day all day, and spend inordinate amounts of research and posting time as if Biden were a threat to world peace.

That’s what I meant.

Don’t see Harris and Warren supporters devoting their lives to being never-Bideners, but...

Well, come on.

You do know what I mean.

[Thekaspervote]

53. That is true

And for me, if Kamala Harris becomes the front runner I will for be supporting her. Voting for the nominee regardless

[quickesst]

37. I think a lot of people....

.... who don't like Joe Biden and troll 24/7 for what I consider trivialities like this are doing it more to make themselves feel better, and to convince themselves of its importance rather than anyone else.

"Mask an Enthusiasm Gap"....Really? 😒

[Joe941]

45. Nailed it.

[emmaverybo]

47. Yep, "Troll 24/7." That's what I mean in another part of this thread. NT

[quickesst]

48. I'm pretty sure....

....the one thing they can really sink their teeth into is going to remain elusive. Chasing the proverbial dragon. Scandals? Bribes? Cheating? Misconduct? These are some of the things they would like to find, but they are also the things I believe they will never find.

[Princetonian]

38. Hey bluewater! How's AA/Latino enthusiasm for Warren in states that aren't 97% white?

[emmaverybo]

39. She is going for Native American support now. Yes, enthusiasm is limited to her base, which is sadly

lacking in AA and Hispanic supporters.

[OKNancy]

42. The New York Times wrote the same thing about Hillary

It's like they MUST go after the frontrunner. I like Biden and I have a certain level of enthusiasm however, I'm just like Joe.
I'm calm and reasonable... and a closet pinko.

[Garrett78]

49. Name recognition is still the most important factor in polling, 5 months out from voting.

And the enthusiasm gap is something I've pointed out before. If another candidate makes a really strong showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden could be in trouble.

I still think it comes down to Harris and Biden. If Harris appears viable after New Hampshire, she could have a strong showing in South Carolina and then be on her way to a big Super Tuesday.

Sanders is essentially done after New Hampshire, and I don't think Warren can win with Sanders in the race.

There's still the possibility that Booker or Buttigieg or Beto or even Klobuchar could surge, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[polichick]

51. Running on inevitability or "the one who's most electable"...

backfires with Democratic voters - a lesson that should’ve been learned by now.

[Purposely undecided until primary season.]

[Princetonian]

55. These Iowan primary voters disagree with you.

“If there would be a horse leading right now for me, it would probably be Biden, because all the polls indicate he would beat Trump handily,” said Rick Spellerberg, 57, as he waited to see Mr. Biden address a group of voters gathered in a gazebo in Prole, a small rural town, on Tuesday afternoon... Asked how Mr. Biden had been doing, Mr. Spellerberg replied, “He hasn’t been doing anything wrong, let’s put it that way.”

Later that day, Mr. Biden addressed another group gathered on a muggy lawn in front of a picturesque barn in Urbandale, as large flies zoomed overhead. Attendees frequently said that Mr. Biden was one of their top two or three choices... “Basically whoever can beat Donald Trump, but I think Biden has the best chance,” said Cheryl Wheeler, 66, of Urbandale. “He’s in the lead, and a proven leader.”

She said she “probably would stick with Biden,”... Samy El-Baroudi, 56, of Des Moines, called Ms. Warren “absolutely amazing, a brilliant woman, brings great ideas.” But Mr. Biden is his current first choice — followed by Ms. Warren....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/22/us/politics/joe-biden-trump-2020.html

[polichick]

56. If that worked, we would've had a Pres. Gore, Pres. Kerry & Pres. HRC...

Since the other side cheats, Dem voters have to come out in huge numbers - that takes “falling in love,” as they say.

It’s possible Trump will provide the inspiration, but that was the bet about GW too.

[treestar]

59. They should have learned from 2016

not to do that any more.

[Hekate]

52. I am so excited at the prospect of defeating Trump I can hardly stand it. There's your enthusiasm

Actually I am so beaten down by the horrors of the Trump administration I am practically ill. "Enthusiasm," my rosy Irish ass.

Biden is a great guy with a great record, and if he get the nom he will have my unqualified support.

[gulliver]

57. I think the word is "refute" or "disprove," not "mask"

[treestar]

58. Not this one again

Another Hillaryism - the Dotard MUST be voted out - we don't care if a ham sandwich is the Democratic nominee. I don't care if the nominee makes me excited and enthused - i want that Creature OUT of the WH. I would vote for Millard Fillmore to get to that end.