Biden PLUMMETS in A+ Rated Monmouth Poll

[bluewater]

Monmouth University Poll
Poll type: Live
538 A+ Rated with 80% Accuracy

_________6/17 ---> 8/26_____

Sanders... 14% ---> 20% +6
Warren.... 15% ---> 20% +5
Biden...…. 32% ---> 19% -13 <--- THAT'S A HUGE -13 DROP!
Harris...….. 8% ---> 8%
Booker...... 2% ---> 4%
Buttigieg... 5% ---> 4%
Yang...…... 2% ---> 3%
Castro...... 0% ---> 2%
O’Rourke.. 3% ---> 2%
Gabbard... 1% ---> 1%
Klobuchar. 1% ---> 1%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_082619/

Biden drops -13% in this 538 A+ rated LIVE Poll, that's stunning.
Biden's support was almost cut in half!

Sanders, Warren and Biden are now in a 3-way statistical tie in this A+ Rated LIVE Monmouth University Poll, margin of error +/- 5.7%

Disclaimer: Actually voting does not start for 5 months. No single poll's results should be overemphasized.

[GemDigger]

1. Nice way to make your own title to EMPHASIZE what you want said. nt

[bluewater]

3. isn't it true?

Last edited Mon Aug 26, 2019, 02:49 PM - Edit history (1)

The poll is what the poll is

[DrToast]

6. I believe the issue is that we already have a thread on this poll

[DrToast]

7. Actually, several.

[bluewater]

13. My table is a clearer presentation of how the Poll has changed.

It's not an identical dupe of any previous post.

Besides, this in't Late Breaking News.

[True Dough]

28. When I see a bluewater thread on polls

I always click, and I'm rarely disappointed!

Thanks for posting.

[bluewater]

30. Thanks, I try to present the actual results as clear as possible.

It's a bit of typing to get the tables to line up, but I think this format better shows the changes between subsequent polls.

[True Dough]

33. Yes,

you put in the extra effort and it shows. Much more elucidating.

[BannonsLiver]

40. Yes we are lucky

To have a self proclaimed polling expert and unskewer of polls here to educate us and craft narratives for us. Amazingly this is the first one he/hasn’t picked apart. I can’t imagine why that is.

[True Dough]

49. Being educated is a blessing

Count your lucky stars for bluewater!

[Thekaspervote]

78. Except it was determined that the poll was an outlier with a very small sample size

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287255489
Early primary states morning consult 8/26
Biden 33%
Sanders 17%
Warren 13%

National numbers by morning consult 8/26

Biden 33%
Sanders 20%
Warren 15%


https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287255204

New Harris X poll
Biden 31%
Sanders 16% warren 10%


Here’s what 538’s Harry Enten had to say about the Monmouth poll

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254977
If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..
poll size for the Monmouth poll approx 270+
Morning consult poll approx 1,700+

[Tiggeroshii]

45. Your table is awesome, and the extra work you did to highlight exactly what happened is super

appreciated. Thank you!!!

[GemDigger]

8. Not at all. I just realized you prefer buzzwords like clickbait.

It will go up and down for all of them. I prefer Biden but I have several other people that will do just as well. So your truth hurts comment is rather childish … just like using buzzwords.

[Sneederbunk]

59. +100

[mobeau69]

2. People are starting to pay attention now.

[bluewater]

10. I expect the polls to start bouncing around a bit now

The online tracking polls that survey the same pool of people over and over won't change that much yet.

The live caller polls should start showing some different numbers for the leaders, but will probably be somewhat scattershot for a few months. imho

[Skya Rhen]

31. Really? This poll was conducted around the same time as the CNN poll which has Biden leading by 14

[questionseverything]

48. i would bet cnn's peops were older, thats bidens base

Biden has suffered an across the board decline in his support since June. He lost ground with white Democrats (from 32% to 18%) and voters of color (from 33% to 19%), among voters without a college degree (from 35% to 18%) and college graduates (from 28% to 20%), with both men (from 38% to 24%) and women (from 29% to 16%), and among voters under 50 years old (from 21% to 6%) as well as voters aged 50 and over (from 42% to 33%). Most of Biden’s lost support in these groups shifted almost equally toward Sanders and Warren.

[LincolnRossiter]

4. Maybe we can get up to 10 threads on this in the next hour or so...

Let's not sell ourselves short.

[DrToast]

14. Yes! We need a "Castro Surges!" thread

Every candidate gets their own thread!

[bluewater]

16. Kills the Biden is inevitable meme though, doesn't it?

Monmouth University Poll is an A+ rated LIVE poll, no unskewing this one.

[mobeau69]

15. I'm sure if you Biden supporters can do it so can Warren's.

And you all did a fine job on the earlier polls!

[question everything]

20. And SHOUT in all of them

I miss the early days of emails when everyone knew that all CAPS meant shouting and.. yes, being rude..

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

5. Yawn

[spooky3]

9. 5.7% is a big margin of error. Nt

[bluewater]

11. -13% is a big drop in support for Biden. OVER TWICE the margin of error.

[mobeau69]

17. Yes, and that means Biden could actually be down another 5.7%.

[bluewater]

21. no need for speculation, Biden's -13% drop is over TWICE the margin of error already.

[mobeau69]

25. Just sayin' MOE works both ways.

[bluewater]

26. True!

[Joe941]

12. Bernie is now the front runner!!!

[zackymilly]

18. We need Hillary to run. Only she can beat Bernie. n/t

[Eyeball_Kid]

19. I'm not impressed with Bernie.

He had a great run in 2016. He opened the door to a lot of talented candidates and politicians. He promotes good policy that presumably focuses on the welfare of the middle and working classes. All of that is good.

But in the 2016 campaign, Bernie only had one competitor: HRC. He could distinguish himself as the left-leaning "Democrat" and get a lot of attention for it. But in 2019, Bernie has a lot of competition from a deep field of political talent. Compared to Buttigieg, Harris, Booker, Warren, and others, Bernie looks far less talented and less persuasive. IMO, he's at the top of the list because of name recognition, and certainly not from his repetitive right-hand and finger-stabbing into the air when he's always emphasizing a point.

It's time for Bernie and all Dem candidates to start laying into Trumpy's vacuousness, dishonesty, ignorance, vanity, criminality, and utter stupidity on a daily basis. Trumpy must be laid to waste, and the Dem leaders are the ones charged with that responsibility. Bernie, since 2016 does not display a forceful frontal attack on Trumpy's major weaknesses. He's had YEARS of openings to do just that, and he's fallen flat. Buttigieg, Booker, Warren, and Harris can do it with aplomb. Bernie doesn't seem to have the fire in his belly to verbally decimate Trumpy. And he MUST be decimated.

[Perseus]

37. I am still undecided but something I love about Bernie is his comebacks/reactions when attacked

The one he did on Tim Ryan will become a classic...

Ryan: "You don't know that"

Bernie: "Of course I do, I wrote the damn plan."

I find that Bernie is one who will not let the creature off the hook on any of his stupidities, his reactions are instantaneous and on the money.

[maddiemom]

62. I agree.

I voted for Bernie in the primary last time, but later worked locally for Hillary. I think Bernie's time has passed, and he has started to wear me out with his "hectoring," so I'm no longer a supporter. Warren has just surpassed Biden in my book, at the present time.

[qazplm135]

27. huh?

He's, at best, tied for first with two other people.

That does not make him "the frontrunner."

Furthermore, this is a 298 person sample size with an almost 6% MOE.

slow your roll a bit there, this is but one somewhat flawed data point...could be true, could not be, could be partially true...but it by no means makes Sanders (or Warren or Biden for that matter) "the front-runner."

[gristy]

22. dupe

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254803

And note that Biden's drop is measured over 2 months. Your use of the term "plummet" is nothing but hyperbole.

[floppyboo]

23. Looks like the DU poll may have just been ahead of the curve.

Although there are more undecideds here.

[mvd]

24. Good to see - I just made my commitment to Warren

While I love Bernie, we have to win and Warren is younger to take on Trump. Also, I don't want any of the last primary wars coming back. Finally, Warren is very progressive.

[Perseus]

41. Again, I am undecided, but I have not seen any loss of energy on Bernie

I don't know that is a valid point, the fact that Warren is younger, I think Bernie will not only hold his own against the creature, I think Bernie will ridicule the creature with his knowledge, directness and wit (unintended wit), he is sharp, just like he left Tim Ryan with his mouth open when he tried to challenge him during the debate.

Sanders/Warren may be a good ticket. But I am still undecided.

[mvd]

51. Well, the biggest thing is the 2016 wounds

Bernie does have energy but you never know at his age. I'd be very happy with him winning.

[TrunKated]

29. I'll vote for any of them...

But I see the two more recent polls (posted earlier but more recent data) have Biden still way ahead. Also this is a smaller sample of people. Weird...

[Skya Rhen]

34. Even Patrick Murray, Director of Monmouth Polling, admitted on CNN that his poll can be an outlier

[bucolic_frolic]

32. I know the future

but won't post it publicly. It would make Republicans' heads spin with whiplash

[virgogal]

35. After 2016 I lost my interest in polls,all polls.

[JCMach1]

36. Obama nostalgia will only get you so far... Biden has to put forward something out there now

or the slip will continue...

He has not been a strong candidate at all so far.

[Vegas Roller]

38. Some people are having ecstatic pleasure from this poll

But this poll will be shown as an outlier.

[Perseus]

44. You may be right

But some people are getting a lot of pain from this poll as well, and who knows? maybe people are starting to pay more attention and thus results change.

[karynnj]

39. Consider that - at that point - that is an outlier!

As you note, "no single poll's result should be overemphasized." That is especially true with a result that is this different for all three top politicians.

[NYMinute]

42. A sample size of 297 will make a MOE over 7%

FDA won't approve a drug based on a 297 person clinical trial for example.

Why? Because the results are MEANINGLESS.

[bluewater]

47. Wrong. Just wrong.

"For results based on the Democratic voter sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points"

So, Biden's loss of support, -13%, was OVER TWICE the Margin of error of the A+ rated LIVE Monmouth University poll, which as an accuracy of 80% according to 538. That's one of the best rated polls that 538 keeps tabs on.

[NYMinute]

67. I use a combination of alpha and beta errors

Statistical power of that sample is <70% -- thus totally unreliable

The MOE stated in the poll is derived magically and I prefer the formula below. The MOE for that sample will range from 6.8% to 9.1%

This is not a place to write a statistical treatise so I shall refrain.

However, the formula is

z*SQR((beta*(1-beta))/n)

People can assign any beta to change the MOE unless taken from a standard z score distribution. Many outfits have "magical" beta numbers for their samples that don't hold up.

[Bradshaw3]

63. A social statistics class could enlighten

As it did me. Actually polls with a large sample size can be less reliable than those with a smaller sample size. It is counterintuitive but true.

[NYMinute]

68. How so? Please enlighten us

That would be revolutionary!!!

Was this course given at the Sanders Institute?

[Bradshaw3]

69. WTF are you talking about?

The Sanders Institute? I'm a Warren supporter if that is what you are going for.

If you are going to use an emoji like that it's good to make a coherent post. Otherwise, you look, well ...

Most polls sample between 400 and 1000 people. There are statisically valid reasons for doing so, but they would probably be wasted on you.

[NYMinute]

72. I was referring to your statement

Actually polls with a large sample size can be less reliable than those with a smaller sample size. It is counterintuitive but true.

There is not a single statistician who would claim that polls with a smaller sample size are more reliable. Not a one.

[Bradshaw3]

81. You referred to a "Sanders Institute"

Which is nowhere to be found in anything I wrote. Hence, the incoherence of your post.

As to your claim, it is factually false. I never wrote what you claim, as the quote you used show. Perhaps you don't understand the phrase "can be less reliable"? Or you were just trying to take a shot. Either way you are wrong.

Too large a sample size can skewer results, as anyone who understands statistics knows. You obviously don't know what you are talking about.

[Princetonian]

43. CNN's Harry Enten's analysis of the new Monmouth Poll

If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..

Snip...

When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters. Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.

Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.

The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.

You'll note that in all of these other polls, Biden's doing at least 10 points better than he was doing in the Monmouth poll. It seems unlikely to me that Biden lost so much ground within the two-day period of CNN ending its own poll.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254977

to Skya Rhen

[bluewater]

50. Even Biden's AVERAGE Poll support has fallen since he announced on April 25th.

538 says to average results from different pollsters to minimize the effects of any systematic errors they have.

Monmouth University Poll is an A+ rated poll with an 80% accuracy according to 538, so it can't be ignored or dismissed.

Right now, looking at the RealClearPolitics Tracker of average poll results, Biden has LOST SUPPORT since he announced his candidacy for the 2020 nomination.

On April 25th, when he announced, Biden was at 29.3% AVERAGE support.

Today, Biden is at 27.2% AVERAGE support.

Anyone can see the rise and fall of Biden's support at the RCP Polls Tracker here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Princetonian]

54. RCP poll averages: Joe 27.3%, Bernie 16.7%, Liz 16.2%

I'll take it.

Monmouth is an outlier with a 5.7% MOE. Enjoy.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

46. Totally sucks. Our chances of beating trump also dropped

In tandem. NOT because the others wouldn't be great presidents. But because the other front runners are too liberal to draw centrists and many ex-trumpers. Forget Texas. They hate women and liberals here. I have heard many moderates say...they will vote Dem unless it's an extreme left leaning person.

[cwydro]

53. Still very early days, not to worry.

Warren’s my number one, but Biden and Buttigieg right behind her.

Things will fluctuate as time goes on. Have faith!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

71. Thanks for pep talk Cwydro ! Yes, it's early. I love Warren too ! Just want to

beat MF45. And, living in a red place, just KNOW they will never, ever, ever vote for anyone who has a sniff of liberal or a sniff of female. If Warren can pull together matchup numbers in critical states that match Biden's, I'd be less worried.

[blm]

52. Please. Stop.

Biden supporters here do not deserve your constant sniping.

[Hekate]

55. You wish

[DrFunkenstein]

56. Biden Promised To Cure Cancer

There are more than 100 kinds of cancer, according to the National Institutes of Health. Each of those cancers has a different cause, from viruses to radiation. Each demands its own treatment.

Biden is going to cure cancer. Period.


You'd think he would be polling better.

[Politicub]

57. The polls are going to shift every which way leading up to the primaries

Even though this one shows Warren as gaining momentum, I take them all with a grain of salt.

[blm]

76. Same here. Those who live for the polls are casting their own fates,

Especially this early on.

[paulkienitz]

58. "No single poll's results should be overemphasized." HA

[yaesu]

60. though biden isn't on my primary short list I never put much stock into polls, even weeks

before an election.

[Ace Rothstein]

61. Biden has 6% of those polled under 50.

There is no enthusiasm for Biden among younger voters.

[Princetonian]

64. Wrong. Where did you get that number? Joe is tied w/Warren at 18% for those 30-44.

Joe leads 38% with those 65 and up, followed by Warren at 18%, Buttigieg & Harris tied at 7%
Joe leads with 29% for those 45-64, followed by Liz at 18%, then Bernie at 11%
Joe is tied with Liz at 18% to Bernie's 19% for those 30-44
Joe is at 9%, Liz at 18%, Bernie at 23% for those under 30

Source: Economist Primary Poll Averages updated daily

Nate Silver of 538.com said Monmouth poll is an outlier with a very small sample with an MOE of 5.7%.

Of course, polls this far out are meaningless but still fun.

[Ace Rothstein]

66. That is specific to this poll.

[Gothmog]

65. From Nate Silver re recent Monmouth poll

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

70. Obama/HRC pollster John Anzalone on this outlier Monmouth poll vs Morning Consult w/Biden lead

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287255551

[bluewater]

80. That MorningConsult online poll is run at LEAST every single week.

So it has a disproportionate effect on the RCP Polls Average.

For the TWO Monmouth polls that have been included in the RCP Polls average since June, ELEVEN, that 11, MorningConsult Polls have been included.

NO WONDER the RCP Polling Average is closer to the MorningConsult Poll results. lol

But, hey, it's been Biden's best poll and the polls are what the polls are.

Including that poll, Biden's AVERAGE support is now 27.5%, that's below the 29.3% average support the day he announced over 4 months ago.

That's why many people consider Biden a fragile front runner, he's just not closing the deal. In fact, he's lost support.

[LincolnRossiter]

82. A whole 2 point difference?

He’s still, on average, double digits ahead of his nearest competitor and even farther ahead in early states.

[bluewater]

87. A front runner who's polling in the 20s and dropping?

Ok...

But that is why many people consider Biden a fragile front runner. He has not been able to move up, let alone close the deal with primary voters.

[LincolnRossiter]

88. When was the last time a non-incumbent candidate

“closed the deal” by the summer of the year preceding an election? Obama didn’t “close the deal” until damn near summer of election year.

[LanternWaste]

73. "Polls finally matter!!! Polls finally matter!!!!"

[Skya Rhen]

75. +1,000,000

[bluewater]

79. "Actually voting does not start for 5 months. No single poll's results should be overemphasized"

Disclaimer: Actually voting does not start for 5 months. No single poll's results should be overemphasized.

Disclaimer: Actually voting does not start for 5 months. No single poll's results should be overemphasized.

Disclaimer: Actually voting does not start for 5 months. No single poll's results should be overemphasized.

There. i wouldn't want anyone to miss the disclaimer that is in the OP. lol

[Autumn]

74. Polls are subject to change but this is more realistic that most I have seen.

[customerserviceguy]

77. I saw that, too

then I looked at the margin of error, clearly, this was a fairly small sample, as surveys go.

[George II]

83. Here's a little dose of reality to add to this poll:

Only 289 people responded.

At 19%, 54.91 (55) people preferred Biden. In order to avoid "plummeting" and remain at 32%, 92.48 (92) people would have preferred Biden.

So this "plummet" is due to a difference of only 37!

[Thekaspervote]

84. This!

[Polly Hennessey]

85. Nice try.

[highplainsdem]

86. Daily Kos Elections: We have a policy against writing up polls with sample sizes of under 300

Link to tweet

[Lordquinton]

89. That's a huge drop!