Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumHUGE 13 POINT DROP FOR BIDEN IN 'A' RATED POLL
Ruh Ro
Monmouth poll: Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren in three-way lead for Democratic bid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)
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George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)However - The Economist/YouGov results over roughly the same period are virtually identical.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)It will be interesting to see what the polls do over the next few months.
The online tracking polls that survey the same poll of people over and over probably won't change much yet (like Morning Consult and HarrisX, for example), but it will be very interesting to see what the highly rate LIVE polls show.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,293 posts)inciting, whether intentional or not. And, I say that no matter WHICH candidate is the subject.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)So it might be only a matter of time before polls start showing him losing support. These results would be indicative of the many recent gaffes hes made on the campaign trail.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
trueblue2007
(17,228 posts)i don't care do you?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)It would be nice for him to know what state he's in, what decade rfk and mlk were assassinated, and not bringing up "if Obama was assassinated." Yes, that bothers me.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
babylonsister
(171,070 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
progressoid
(49,991 posts)Biden campaign insiders say the longtime politician is as physically and mentally fit as ever, but they also worry that the accumulation of gaffes is solidifying into a media narrative. The New York Times reports:
While his advisers dismissed the individual remarks as minor miscues that Mr. Biden mostly amended quickly, the slipups have become part of a patterna strong campaign trail moment, followed by a blunder that dominates the news coveragethat has been enormously frustrating to them and, some Democratic allies say, to Mr. Biden himself.
Some of his advisers said in interviews that they were privately nervous that his recent gaffe spree would become cemented into the larger narrative of the presidential race. They also say that Mr. Biden faces an unfair double standard.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/joe-biden-gaffes-2020
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Ace Rothstein
(3,163 posts)It will cost us the general if he keeps up with the gaffes.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)They are not a good thing for any candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)Democratic voters have 3 candidates in the top tier.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
gristy
(10,667 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hedda_foil
(16,375 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,010 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oldsoftie
(12,555 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
progressoid
(49,991 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,555 posts)Real Clear Politics is the site to watch.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Absurd.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)Like Biden Love Bernie but sincerely believe they are too old, both at an age where mental processes....well can cause problems. Right now it seems more of an issue with Biden.
Warren is about half a generation younger and not as close to the danger zone.
Harris, Klobuchar, Mayor Pete, they seem to not be finding enough traction.
Still a long way to go though. Whoever it is we must be willing to crawl over glass to vote, we must kick Orange Hitler to the curb.l
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Funtatlaguy
(10,879 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Green Line
(1,123 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oldsoftie
(12,555 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
treestar
(82,383 posts)As she would be Joe's age in the middle of it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Maven
(10,533 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)Wait until the states are no longer 97% white.
Wait until SC.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)Snip...
When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters. Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.
The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.
You'll note that in all of these other polls, Biden's doing at least 10 points better than he was doing in the Monmouth poll. It seems unlikely to me that Biden lost so much ground within the two-day period of CNN ending its own poll.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254977
to Skya Rhen
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
questionseverything
(9,656 posts)Biden has suffered an across the board decline in his support since June. He lost ground with white Democrats (from 32% to 18%) and voters of color (from 33% to 19%), among voters without a college degree (from 35% to 18%) and college graduates (from 28% to 20%), with both men (from 38% to 24%) and women (from 29% to 16%), and among voters under 50 years old (from 21% to 6%) as well as voters aged 50 and over (from 42% to 33%). Most of Bidens lost support in these groups shifted almost equally toward Sanders and Warren.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)RCP poll averages: Joe 27.3%, Bernie 16.7%, Liz 16.2%
I'll take it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)YouGov is one of the 3 online tracking polls often cited here on DU, along with MorningConsult and Harris.
This latest A+ Rated Monmouth University poll isn't that different from the YouGov polls that consistently have Biden with a smaller lead.
For example, here is the 8/21 pollresults:
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Economist/YouGov
Biden 22, Sanders 19, Warren 18, Harris 8, Buttigieg 8, O'Rourke 3, Booker 2, Yang 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 2, Klobuchar 0, Williamson 0, Steyer 0
Older YouGov polls also show Biden just in the mid 20s percent support range with a 5-6 point lead.
So, IS the Monmouth poll really an outlier? Time will tell.
But I guarantee that when the MorningConsult poll comes out tomorrow showing Biden at ~30%, many people will claim THAT poll is absolutely 100% correct.
Again, time will tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)compared to his slow decline as the race has been wearing on.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden