Democracy Corps/GQR poll, GE matchups: Biden +9, Warren +7, Sanders +4

[highplainsdem]

Those are the results for Likely Voters.

For Registered Voters, there's only one change in the numbers -- Sanders beats Trump by 5 points instead of 4.


This is a B- rated poll according to 538's polls page:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

https://democracycorps.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DCorps_Full-Internal-National-Phone-FQ_091119.pdf

This is a poll of 775 likely voters, and 800 registered voters.

It's encouraging to see the top 3 candidates doing this well against Trump.

What's particularly interesting to me is that Biden not only does better against Trump, he also cuts into support for Justin Amash running as an independent.

Amash polls at 5% against Trump and the Democratic candidate with both likely voters and all registered voters, except when our candidate is Biden, when Amash's support drops to 4% with both likely and all registered voters.

Which I think is again indicative of Biden's ability to pick up some swing voters.

And Biden gets 50% of the vote with both likely and registered voters.

Sanders and Warren get 48% with both groups, except for Sanders getting 47% in the GE with likely voters..

[qazplm135]

1. so again

1. GE polls this far out aren't worth much

but if you are going to consider them then

2. There's no statistical significance between Biden up 9 and Warren up 7 unless the margin of error is below 2.
There's no difference between 50% and 48%.

So, all three of our top candidates and certainly the two of Warren and Biden, are (again ignoring that GE polling this early is of extremely limited utility) roughly equally able to win in 2020.

So everyone is free to vote for whom they prefer in the primary, without fear of electability.

[Skya Rhen]

2. Everybody should vote for who they wish. I'm glad that the person that I am voting for happens

to be the front runner who will be the eventual nominee.

[Doodley]

5. 2. There is a statistical difference is all the polls show Biden does better than Warren in matchups

[LanternWaste]

8. Has anyone argued we're not free to vote for whom we want?

Or are you simply conflating that with analyses, editorials and suggestions?

[qazplm135]

10. sure there are

plenty of folks have said on here if we don't vote for Joe, we lose.

But thanks for reminding me of the internet arguing device of attempting to define a word as literally as possible to distract.

[LanternWaste]

12. Seems a rather large difference between...

denying someone a vote versus an opinion of the consequence of the same vote. But I get it... sometimes we have to conflate words and ignore context to better validate our narratives. Devices, indeed.

[qazplm135]

14. No one but you

Would have interpreted what I wrote as literally someone denying someone the literal ability to vote.

You're disengenuousness isn't clever and it isn't convincing anyone.

But hey it's your electrons so if you want to continue wasting it on silliness...

[Amimnoch]

3. Really wishing we had more battleground matchups.

My biggest concern with these national polls is they are more reflective of how a popular vote outcome will look, and as we should know all TOO well now, we're quite capable of losing the election even with strong popular vote support.

Looking purely at the battleground states, and the last polls that did matchups between the top 3 candidates and Cheetolini matchup:

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from June 2019
Biden: +9 win
Warren: +4 win
Sanders: +6 win

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from July 2019
Biden: +8 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -1 loss

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

Kind of an aside here, but personally, I put a LOT of stock into the Ohio matchup polls. Ohio seems to have a knack of indicating how the election will go since it's the only battleground state that no president has been elected to office without their EC votes since JFK.

[highplainsdem]

4. I wish we had more battleground matchups, too, but I'm sure we'll see a lot more before the first

primaries and caucuses.

Re that Ohio poll in July -- I find that especially interesting, too.

And it has to have upset Trump and his supporters because Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016.

[Thekaspervote]

6. Thx for posting ... those are really good numbers for Biden with FL being the only state that

Looks like the Ntl poll posted above

[Amimnoch]

7. Very welcome. I'm trending them in a spreadsheet as the season goes along.

I just did an OP to share all the information and what a 270 to win map would look like for each if this was how an actual election came out.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

[Thekaspervote]

9. Yes, I saw that as well... thank you for your crunching the numbers

[Lucid Dreamer]

11. Don't believe polls this close if they have trump voters as respondents.

Here is the problem...

Republican Respondents:

Who would you vote for between
republican donald trump
or [insert Dem name here]?

Republican....... 25%
Democratic...... 25%
refuse answer... 25%
random answer. 25%

If I don't see about a +20% I don't even start to feel good.

Then if I start to feel good I feel bad.

This poll is not encouraging to me.

--Frustrated Skeptic

[DrFunkenstein]

13. Dems Voted With Their Fears For Too Long

Obama showed us that we are better than that.

Vote with your head and your heart. Change is not only possible, it is necessary. The world literally depends on us getting this right. Not better than horrible. Getting it right.

[Cha]

15. No one is voting their "fears".

[DrFunkenstein]

16. Fear is The Central Premise of Biden "Electability" Pitch

It means that you do not trust your neighbors to make the best choice, so rather than choose the one you feel best suited to succeed at the job, you opt for the one you think the average person will find most palatable.

And usually it involves finding someone you think could have won the last election, rather than the candidate who understands the current moment.

You can spin it and say it is the candidate you "hope" will be able to win, but really at the bottom it comes down to fear.

[Cha]

17. Sez you.. who has nothing but insults.