Mark Penn owns the Harris Poll

[crazytown]

Mark Penn's Stagwell Group bought Neilsens Harris Poll assets in January 2017
https://stagwellgroup.com/press/press-release-stagwell-media-llc-relaunch-harris-brand-including-harris-poll/

Penn is Harris' Poll Chairman, and supervises their polls
https://theharrispoll.com/the-inaugural-harvard-harris-poll-details-the-feelings-of-registered-voters-towards-the-u-s-government-as-a-whole-as-well-a-specific-look-into-the-trump-administration-and-reveals-just-how-everyone/


Penn is a Fox News Contributor, has written about The Deep State, and met Trump in the White House
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/01/us/politics/mark-penn-trump-clinton.html

Penn has written Trump is not a Dictator, Nadler is

Link to tweet

Penn is unreliable. Harris is unreliable. Cite with caution.

[TidalWave46]

1. I don't see where you have made the case the the poll is unreliable.

In fact, it looks like you made a concerted effort to avoid making any case for its unreliability.

Fox runs one of the best polls out there.

[crazytown]

2. Mark Penn is 'ethically challanged'

toxic fruit

[TidalWave46]

6. Again, no case made. NT

[crazytown]

8. Take it up with Dick Morris

eom

[TidalWave46]

11. Love Dick Morris.

Take any prediction he makes and the opposite will happen.

Still, no case made about the poll. I believe it’s a C+ at 538. Not a bad ranking for a poll using the technique they use.

[crazytown]

13. "Love Dick Morris"

You got me there!

[TidalWave46]

14. .

[sharedvalues]

17. Welcome to DU TidalWave46!

[Hortensis]

35. :) Very nice manners under the circumstances.

[RVN VET71]

25. President Roney might disagree with you there.

[TidalWave46]

26. Didn't Dick say Romney was going to win?

And the opposite happened?

[RVN VET71]

32. Yep

He and Karl Rove were shocked, I tell you, shocked! when the black guy won a second term. Morris predicted a landslide and Rove, as I recall, refused to believe Fox "News" when they told him that Obama was kicking the Mormon draft-dodger's butt.

I've always wondered at the shock and surprise of both Rove and the hooker-toe-sucker Morris at the election results. I believe they both felt confident that the fix was in, as it had been in 2004 when, if memory serves, the exit polls showed Kerry winning by a wide margin and even the pundits on Fox "News" couldn't explain why those polls were so far, far off the mark when, previously, they had been totally accurate predictors.

Apparently, in 2012, the GOP failed to repeat the success it had cheating in 2004.

[TidalWave46]

33. Dick is wrong far more often than he is right.

Dick is an enormous embarrassment to himself.

[RVN VET71]

34. And apparently his gravy train

has finally left the station. I haven't seen or heard from or about him in a long while.

[progressoid]

28. C+ is not bad?

Nor is it good. No one should trust a C+ poll.

[TidalWave46]

31. It would be bad if anyone outright trusted any poll...

Without looking into the details of it.

[crazytown]

36. Today's HarrisX national poll

Biden +18.

[TidalWave46]

37. They poll Biden consistently higher than others.

Just putting out the number doesn't say much. It's about trends and consistency.

[obamanut2012]

3. uh huh

[TidalWave46]

7. This is as strong as the case made in the op. NT

[sharedvalues]

16. It's run by a rightwing troll: Penn. IGNORE

That is all you need to know:
Who owns and runs the poll.

[TidalWave46]

18. I need a bit more.

Like actual reasons it’s a bad poll.

It’s not the best out there, that’s for sure. I don’t think it’s worth ignoring.

No one questions the validity of polls put out by Fox News yet the devastating impact they have had on society makes Penn look borderline insignificant.

Penn and Fox News are scum. I’m making the case for neither of them. I am saying that the op and replies to me contain no legitimate basis or case that the poll is unreliable. It is very good to know Penn has his hands in it.

[crazytown]

21. So,

just because the proprietor is dishonest, a political insider who has spent a life time trading in favors, a man a little integrity, there is reason to trust in the integrity of the polls he not only owns, but supervises? Cite with caution.

[sharedvalues]

39. Thank you

Yes

[sharedvalues]

38. No. Control matters HUGELY.

As Democrats and patriots we should reject all media and all people who have demonstrated bad faith. And media owned by rightwing billionaires and other conservatives should be dismissed right out of hand.
They can lie faster than you can debunk.

That includes Fox, WSJ, The Hill, Mark Penn, anyone at he Washington Examiner or Federalist, and anyone with a proven record of lying.


The Fox News poll is about the ONLY exception to this rule. But be very careful: for now it seems inbiased, which is good. But you know Murdoch will try to turn it for political ends. I don’t trust that guy farther than a snail can jump.

[hlthe2b]

4. it is an online poll ranked as C+ by fivethirtyeight.com?

I take your point on Penn. He's a RW troll. As with most online polls they are inherently nonrepresentative and frequently biased. Yougov is one of the better online polls with a solid "B" rank.

Someone compared it to Fox poll which is (by contrast) ranked a solid "B" by 538.com. Fox is a live poll, not online.

[dalton99a]

5. Fuck Mark Penn. He is a full-fledged Trump cultist and propagandist.

[BeyondGeography]

9. Enjoying seeing Mark Penn get his ass kicked in this thread

Still amazed that he was chief strategist of HRC 2008. Obama needed every edge he could get to narrowly defeat her and Mark Penn was a major asset for him.

[crazytown]

12. "micro markets"

Penn was a master at not seeing the wood from the trees. I remember that time well.

[BeyondGeography]

15. This was one of my favorites

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/campaigns/presidential-campaigns/45434-mark-penn-thought-dem-primary-race-was-winner-take-all

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. They frequently partner with the The Hill. That's how far right they are. . . . nt

[Demsrule86]

22. I have seen the HIll polls and articles arguing Warren is surging and/or ahead...This sort was well

received here...ah well, at least most on social media and sites like JPR are supporting Democrats this time and not Jill Stein or( puke) Trump...no more Hillary is way worse than Donnie but the emails and whatever other issues were manufactured...I am confident that Democrats will vote for the nominee regardless of who said nominee is. I know I will.

[DrFunkenstein]

19. Here's an Article About One Example

HARVARD POLL ON RENEGOTIATING IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL USED “BLATANTLY BIASED QUESTION”

https://theintercept.com/2017/10/28/renegotiate-iran-deal-harvard-harris-poll-mark-penn/

Here's some examples of the questions:

“Do you think that the part of the justice department responsible for the Hillary Clinton email investigations, and that is supervising the Mueller investigation, is resisting providing Congressional investigators information on payments for the Fusion GPS dossier, unmasking of officials and other issues, or is it cooperating fully with Congress?”

"Do you think that the Fusion GPS dossier that was paid for by Hillary Clinton’s campaign was the source of the justice department investigation into Trump and Russia, or do you think the investigation was started on the basis of other information?"

[Demsrule86]

20. I get the desire to cherry pick polls when some don't favor you candidate...hell do it myself

at times. But the reality is that Warren is not ahead by any huge amount...she may very well be closer nationally, but you go state by state...she is not. We do not elect our president nationally nor do we elect our nominee nationally...it is state by state. I see nothing right now that indicates that Biden will not be the nominee. I look at all the polls too. I don't see much movement towards Warren by AA voters which in my opinion is key to winning the Democratic nomination and later the rust belt states we need. And I repeat, AA voters are an important constituency in our party and their votes matter a great deal.

I do not believe Warren is the nominee we need in 20 to oust the orange idiot now crossed over to mass killer with the Kurd situation and of course the caged children he allowed to die in his concentration camps. He must go...thus I support Biden in the primary and anyone including Warren in the general.

As I have said before, I do not believe we win a general with Warren. I see a popular vote win and an electoral college loss in such a scenario. I would like to add, I am insulted by the abuse heaped upon Biden supporters by mostly Warren supporters...we are all on the same team after all. And the condescension and just plain nastiness is unnecessary and divisive.

[DrFunkenstein]

23. What a Strange Response To My Post...

Honestly, I wasn't even looking at any polls by Harris. I know that 538 doesn't rate it, but I was speaking more to Mark Penn's long history of using polls to scheme against the Dems.

I'll respond, though. I look at Iowa and New Hampshire and see very worrying signs for Biden, whose rationale is not a particular message but rather that he is the natural winner against Trump.

His campaign shares that concern, which is why you see articles about "firewalls" built for Super Tuesday.

---

“Biden has a challenger now. He didn’t have one before,” said Ryan Tyson, a Florida-based pollster who shared three large surveys he just completed in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida that show Biden slipping and Warren gaining.

In New Hampshire, Tyson’s just-completed 600-likely voter poll shows Warren with 18 percent of the vote and Biden 15 percent in an open-ended ballot question. It’s a dramatic change from his last poll, with Biden dropping 18 points while Warren gained 7 — a 25-point shift.

Similarly, since May, Biden has dropped by 18 points in South Carolina, though he still remains in first place there with 19 percent of the vote, according to Tyson’s 600-voter poll.

Warren, who has spent relatively little time and money in South Carolina, has gained just a point since May and has 9 percent support in the poll. But she’s now in second because Bernie Sanders has tumbled there as he has in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Biden’s level of support in South Carolina makes it his firewall state, but even in South Carolina there are troubling signs of erosion. While he remains on top, among black voters, who are more than 60 percent of the Democratic electorate, Biden has plummeted 19 points in Tyson’s polls. That’s a potential leading indicator of the problems he could face after South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary when many of the minority-heavy Southeastern states — as well as Texas and California — beginning voting on Super Tuesday, March 3, and thereafter.

Florida, where about 28 percent of the Democratic primary electorate is black, votes March 17. Biden is in first there with 24 percent of the Democratic vote, losing 15 points since May in Tyson’s polls.

“Biden’s support was always soft. That’s the key,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Unlike some of the other candidates, Biden’s support isn’t as locked in. He doesn’t have that ‘it’ factor.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/25/biden-iowa-new-hampshire-polls2020-1510351

That's in addition to California having Warren up to 29% from 18% in June, while Biden dropped to just 20% with so much at stake there.

[flying_wahini]

30. Sorry but I disagree that Warren can't win.

Which is what Biden supporters keep saying. Which is what many said when Obama ran.

Warren could (I think will) win with a strong VP that is not Biden or Bernie.
Biden is out of gas and will be coasting into home is my guess. He doesn’t get people fired up.
If Bernie has a stumble or a fall he will be out, too.

I think Harris would tip it to Warren, personally, Just on the women vote alone.

[calimary]

24. K&R

[Mersky]

27. Thanks for the heads-up. nt

[Farmer-Rick]

29. A very common and easy manipulation strategy and propaganda tool is massaged polls.

Publishing such carefully manipulated data not only makes it appear that a losing candidate is actually winning, but also discourages opponents and makes those with conflicting opinions think they are alone. It makes undecided voters move towards the falsely identified winner.

I think most opinion polls are massaged. Even so called good or fair polls. Ever since the "red shift" most polls have been massaged to some extent.

[crazytown]

40. & today Harris polls Biden +20

Not sampling bias, fraud.