The Myth about Sanders -- that "only" White voters support him is FALSE

[bluewater]

Looking at the demographics breakdown provided by The Economist's analysis of 2020 Primary polls we see the following statistics for voter support:

Biden:... 20% White, 39% Black, 21% Hispanic, 17% Other Ethnicity

Sanders: 14% White, 11% Black, 19% Hispanic, 17% Other Ethnicity

Warren:. 31% White, 15% Black, 17% Hispanic, 21% Other Ethnicity

So, Sanders has support of 11% of Black voters polled compared to 14% support among white voters.

Sanders also has support of 19% of Hispanic voters polled compared to 14% support among white voters.

In fact Sanders' support is MORE BALANCED across ethnic demographics than Biden's or Warren's.

huh. So much for THAT Bernie bashing myth, hmmm?

Check out these demographics for yourself at The Economist's 2020 Primary site, scroll down to see all the demographics including age and education levels:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

Will current statistics like these stop the Bernie Bashing "his crowds are so white, he has no support among people of color" posts we see so often? I wager not.

[Joe941]

1. Thank you.

[George II]

2. So, he's 3rd among Whites, 3rd among Blacks, 2nd among Hispanics, and 2nd among Other.

Remember, referencing % only doesn't fully show the reality, some of those demographics are much lower than others.

14% of say 70% is a lot better than 19% of only 18% of eligible voters.

[bluewater]

6. Exactly, his support is balanced across ethnic demographics

His support is balanced, but currently lower over all than Warren's or Biden's.

And of course, to calculate actual support among all Democrats, those numbers have to be multiplied by the percentage that each demographic group represents among all Democratic voters.

For example, Biden's 39% among Black voters sounds overwhelming, but Black voters are ~19% of all Democratic voters... so .39 x .19 = 7.4% of Democrats. Warren's black voter support would be .17 x .19 = 3.2% of all Democrats.

That translated into a 4.2% edge among all Democrats for Biden due to Black voter support.

Looking at white voters we see a different story:

Warren has 31% White support to Biden's 20%. And white voters make up ~60% of all Democrats.

So Warren's white support translate into .31 x .60 = 16.6% of all Democrats, while Biden's 20% translates to .20 x .60 = 12% of all Democrats.

That gives Warren a 4.6% edge over Biden due to her support among White voters.

This example shows why Elizabeth Warren is virtually tied with Joe Biden in average poll results, even though Joe has a HUGE lead among African American Democratic voters, it's offset by Warrens significant 11% lead among White democratic voters.

[TidalWave46]

3. Could be one of the best lines of the day.

“In fact Sanders' support is MORE BALANCED across ethnic demographics than Biden's or Warren's.“

[ritapria]

4. Thank you so much

Deeply appreciated ...He is building a multi-racial coalition ...Enough of this Bernie Bros BS

[Uncle Joe]

5. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread bluewater.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

7. How much of this "balanced" coalition because his white voter support has gone to Warren

11% black voter support is not good given he's been running for president for four years now and it was his Achilles hill vs Hillary

[thesquanderer]

8. And while black voters may more likely have Biden as first choice, Sanders is still liked.

Here's the most recent favorability poll on RCP...

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eb2rrb9ofh/econTabReport.pdf

Sanders and Biden have an identical total 60% favorable rating (either "very" or "somewhat&quot among black voters (though Biden gets more "verys&quot . (Also note that in both cases, 20% haven't formed an opinion.)

As an aside, the two also have identical favorability among white voters, 34%.

Note that this poll is not party specific, so it also includes the opinions of Republicans and independents. Though besides telling you something about these candidates' appeal in the general, there's also the factor that many states have open or semi-open primaries where non-Dems can vote as well.

For more context, the poll says Trump's favorability is 24% among black voters, and 48% among white. Trump's figures are boosted by having far fewer respondents who have not formed either a positive or negative opinion.

[NurseJackie]

9. The photos are a myth, eh?

My lying eyes deceive me?

[bluewater]

11. The Photos!!!1!1!!

yeah let's just ignore the statistics from from reputable pollsters and data journalists...

Sorry, but the demographic statistics are what the demographic statistics are.

[NurseJackie]

12. I know, right?

My eyes are lying to me!



The BS campaign is dying on the vine. Without the support of AA and POC communities, he'll NEVER be our party's nominee. It's clear that the campaign has just completely written those voters off. They don't care.

His rally in the historically black church, located in a predominantly black neighborhood, in a majority black city... he had MORE white faces in attendance than there are in Vermont. The AA and POC voters were AVOIDING him.

The BS campaign is a lost cause. Get used to it. Celebrate it.

[bluewater]

14. But the photos!!!!1!!!!

Let's forget about hard statistics and silly things like major polls!

What do data journalists know when we got a sun-flared fuzzy photo of a mixed crowd standing in front of a , gasp, HOUSING PROJECT. THAT is supposed to be an all white crowd?



Seriously, I looked at THAT photo, zooming in as much as the low resolution allowed and saw scads of people of different ethnicities.

Anyone can do that and see that for themselves...



Sorry, but the statistics show that Sanders has balanced support across the ethnic demographics.

Facts are stubborn things.

[NurseJackie]

15. Photos are stubborn things! BS has a problem with AA voters (or AA voters have a problem with him.)

Photos are stubborn things! BS has a problem with AA voters (or AA voters have a problem with him.) Either way the outcome will be the same.

Who is feeling the Bern? In North Charleston, it was a mostly-white crowd
https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/who-is-feeling-the-bern-in-north-charleston-it-was/article_851b29d6-471e-11e9-bc24-7f7b68686e53.html

Black voters are a pivotal voting bloc in the South Carolina presidential Democratic primary, accounting for more than 60 percent of voters.

BS won't win South Carolina... BS won't be our party's nominee.

[bluewater]

23. Nice photo of a mixed crowd! But can we get back to the statistics?

Last edited Tue Oct 22, 2019, 10:53 AM - Edit history (2)

I understand it's hard to change strongly held views, but the staistics show Sander's support among the various ethnic demographics is actually very balanced.

His problem isn't that his support is "too white" and demographically unbalanced, it's that he just doesn't have enough total support to win the 2020 nomination.

I have said THAT repeatedly in this OP. So it's a strawman argument to try to make Sanders chances of winning the contention now.

A fixation on cherry picked photos simply does not change the statistics, Sanders' support IS balanced across ethnic demographics. The numbers prove that:

Sanders: 14% support among White democrats, 11% support among Black democrats, 19% support among Hispanic Democrats, 17% support among Democrats of other ethnicities

So statements like:

"It's clear that the campaign has just completely written those voters [people of color] off. They don't care"

"The AA and POC voters were AVOIDING him."

Thanks for the discussion.



are just over the top and wrong.

[NurseJackie]

29. BS cannot win-over AA and POC voters in the South...

... even in a majority black city (North Charleston, SC for instance) in a predominantly black neighborhood, in an historically black church, the black-folk just don't care about him. They refuse to show up and hear what he has to say... even when it's in their own neighborhood. His rallies there are whiter than Vermont.

It's an ongoing problem. Nothing has improved.

BS will not be our party's nominee.

[HeartlandProgressive]

32. did the goalposts just move?

I thought the thread was about Sanders' supporters being "too white"

[bluewater]

34. Yeah... definite segwaying to "Bernie can't win" is going on...

I guess they gave up on insisting his supporters are not ethnically balanced.

[NurseJackie]

36. Nobody said that.

I thought the thread was about Sanders' supporters being "too white"

I'm saying that his rallies clearly lack diversity. They don't represent America, nor do they represent the communities they're held in.

The fact that he won't win the nomination is just a bonus. He's not the right man to lead our country. I'll be voting for someone else.

[beastie boy]

10. Congratulations! You just succeeded in debunking a self-debunking myth!

Suggesting that only white people vote for Bernie is as mythical as suggesting that only black people vote for Biden.

However, the myth of Bernie sorely lagging in black votes is looking increasingly like a fact with each new poll. Add this one to the bunch: the lowest percentage of black voter support among leading candidates.

And here is why it matters: with 40% of white vote guaranteed to go to Trump in the Generals, you can't win with only 11% of black voter support. And that's why "more balanced" is meaningless. Huh.

[bluewater]

13. Thanks for acknowledging that the Bernie Detractors are flat out wrong about his demographics.

But I take your point. As I said previously, Sanders' support is demographically balanced but it is currently less than either Warren's or Sanders. It's an uphill fight for him to try and win the 2020 nomination and chances are he won't succeed.

But if he did somehow get the nomination, his support by Black voters in the General election would probably be quite good.

This was posted up thread:

And while black voters may more likely have Biden as first choice, Sanders is still liked.

Here's the most recent favorability poll on RCP...

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eb2rrb9ofh/econTabReport.pdf

Sanders and Biden have an identical total 60% favorable rating (either "very" or "somewhat" among black voters (though Biden gets more "verys". (Also note that in both cases, 20% haven't formed an opinion.)

As an aside, the two also have identical favorability among white voters, 34%.

Note that this poll is not party specific, so it also includes the opinions of Republicans and independents. Though besides telling you something about these candidates' appeal in the general, there's also the factor that many states have open or semi-open primaries where non-Dems can vote as well.

So, regardless of the facts, Bernie Detractors will continue to insist that his support is "too white" even though the statistics show he has balanced demographic support AND that his actual favorability among Black voters is also high.

[LanternWaste]

18. Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this son of Vermont...

[beastie boy]

20. This is a lame spin. Contrary to what you are saying, I demonstrated that "Bernie's detractors" are

absolutely right. No other major candidate is doing as badly among black voters as Bernie. This is not a myth. A myth would be to start with a patently and deliberately false premise of "only white people vote for Bernie" and argue against it rather than argue against the facts.

And you can speculate all you want about black voters in the Generals, but, according to the poll you cited, the numbers say Bernie would be unwise and unrealistic to count on more than 11% of the totality of the black vote. Period. If you have the numbers to argue to the contrary, please post them.

On edit: I also have a somewhat favorable opinion of Sanders. This doesn't in any way correspond with my approval of his policies or methods, or my confidence in him beating Trump, or my willingness to vote for him. Also note the difference between black voters' disapproval of Sanders vs. Biden. Goes directly against your argument.

[bluewater]

21. Myth? You missed comments like this then: "The AA and POC voters were AVOIDING him."

That was said in this thread. The MYTH I am "busting" is that Sander's supporters are "too white", that "only" white people support him to any significant degree.

Even though Sanders support among People of Color is comparable to the other candidates, some people insist it is not and even in this thread say things like:

"It's clear that the campaign has just completely written those voters off. They don't care."

"The AA and POC voters were AVOIDING him."

This is just one example of those people that continue to claim Sanders' support is "too white" and think that posting cherry picked photographs proves that.

Sorry if that's all to hard to fit in an OP headline, but the body of the OP made that quite clear.

Now you say this:

No other major candidate is doing as badly among black voters as Bernie.

Which leaps from being misleading into being just patently wrong.

First , your qualifying term"major candidates" shows a proclivity to goal post moving.

Second, you left out Hispanic voters even though the OP is about Sanders support among people of color.
Was that because Sanders has very good support numbers with Hispanic voters? Let's look at those quickly:

Biden: 21% of Hispanic Democrats support him
Sanders: 19%
Warren: 17%
Buttigieg: 6%
O'rourke: 6%

Well, so much for POC avoiding Sanders in those statistics, hmmm?

But you singled out Sanders' support among Black Democrats, let's examine the actual numbers and see how "badly" Sanders is do among black voters compared to the other "major candidates":

Biden: 39% of Black democrats support him
Warren: 15%
Sanders: 11%
Harris: 9%
Booker: 4%
Buttigieg: less than 4%

huh. look at THAT. Biden is obviously doing awesome with Black democrats compared to EVERYONE else, but Sanders seems to be doing comparable to all the other "major candidates"

He's only 4% behind Warren currently. She is not only a "major candidate", she is a co-front runner in the primary race!

Sanders is 2% ahead of Kamala Harris and she is a "major candidate"

Don't think Harris is a "major candidate"? Ok... how about Buttigieg? Sanders is over 7% ahead of him in Black voter support. Surely Buttigieg is a "major candidate", right? I mean he has huge fund raising numbers and is surging in Iowa, right?

lol

But I guess by "major candidates" you will now probably want to limit that to just 3 candidates right?

We just proved you are flat out wrong when you said :

No other major candidate is doing as badly among black voters as Bernie. This is not a myth

because he's beating both Harris and Buttigieg among Black voters, and people consider them to be "major candidates", even though you do not. And if Sanders is doing "badly" trailing Warren by 4%, then surely, by your definition, Warren is doing "badly" trailing Biden by 24%. So why are people singling out Sanders?

So, if I can ask if the goal posts stop moving for a second while I point out that this OP was about showing that Sanders has balanced support across the ethnic demographic groups. It clearly has shown that.

There is even a poster in the thread trying to make the counter argument, so that isn't a strawman proposition -- too many people are claiming that Sanders does not have significant support among People of Color. That simply is not true.

As for the General Election, I have all ready stated numerous times that though sanders support is balanced, in total it is less than both Warren's and Biden's and I do not think that Sanders will get the 2020 nomination. You brought up the General Election, but it is a tangent to the theme of the OP.

[beastie boy]

27. Wasn't your OP titled "The Myth about Sanders -- that "only" White voters support him is FALSE"?

You built a straw man and you tore it down. That makes your post fundamentally deceiving. You then cited the numbers that disprove both your straw man and your conclusion.

I addressed this issue, and I only answer for what I posted.. If you find anything posted here objectionable, don't hang it on me, address it directly.

Time and again, you bring up statistics that reinforce my point. Add this one to the list: Sanders lags behind among Hispanic voters, and thank you for your input. If you consider your sources to be misleading or patently wrong, you are welcome to keep arguing with yourself.

And just FYI: I consider candidates that receive over 10% of the polling sample to be leading candidates. I wonder what your definition is.

[HeartlandProgressive]

31. Why do you ignore that people in the thread are still claiming Sanders' support is too white?

One person is even posting pictures trying to back up that claim.

You chose to ignore that saying : "I only answer for what I posted.. If you find anything posted here objectionable, don't hang it on me, address it directly. "

So, when it's shown that the OP isn't constructing a strawman argument that people claim Sanders' supporters are "too white", you just ignore that?

Also, when you said this:

"Time and again, you bring up statistics that reinforce my point. Add this one to the list: Sanders lags behind among Hispanic voters, and thank you for your input."

So, Sanders strong showing, second only to Biden's by 2%, becomes in your words "Sanders lags behind among Hispanic voters".

Ok... I think I have heard enough... have a nice day.

[bluewater]

35. Bazinga!

Here's how Sanders "lags behind" among Hispanic voters again, lol

Biden: 21% of Hispanic Democrats support him
Sanders: 19%
Warren: 17%
Buttigieg: 6%
O'rourke: 6%

[BlueMississippi]

16. Wrong statistics

One cannot divide the smaller subgroups this way and get a significant answer.

To give an example

Candidate A is poling at 40% and his support is divided 40:13:22:15
Candidate B is polling at 10% and his support is divided 25:25:25:25

In a poll of 1000 people the differences between A's group and B's groups lose significance because 100 (10% of 1000) is very msall to draw conclusions from.

By the way -- please show a photo of any BS rally where there are a significant number of minorities in attendance.

[bluewater]

22. Wow, you totally mis-interpreted the statistics.

Let me help explain them. The numbers are for a candidates support IN A GIVEN ethnic demographic, NOT how much of there total support comes from that demographic. No total support numbers were given, just the support in each demographic group.

To give an example:

Biden: 39% Black Voters, 20% White Voters, 21% Hispanic voters, 17% other ethnicities

that does NOT mean that 39% of Biden's total support is from Black voters. It means 39% of Black voters support Biden.

I hope this clears up any confusion you might be having about the demographic statistics.

[BlueMississippi]

25. I interpreted it correctly

The sample size for those polling low is different and has a very big MOE as compared to those polling high. If the poll started out with 30,000 participants the situation will be different.

If Biden is polling at 33% of a 1000 sample, that is 330 individuals. Now when you analyze the subgroups, the MOE is as applies to a sample of 330 not 1000.

When BS is polling at 15%, that is 150 individuals. The MOE for this group will be near 12% thus any meaningful conclusions impossible.

I'll ask you a question. If Biden's supporters included 14% left handed people and Bernie included 8%, will you conclude that left handed people favor Biden by 2:1?

Or .. If Biden's supporters included 15% libras, 35% virgos, 29% pisces whereas Bernie's included 4% libras, 12% virgos and 42% pisces, will you conclude that libras favor Biden by 3:1 and pisces favor Bernie by 2:1?



SMDH

[HeartlandProgressive]

30. You definitely are misinterpreting the statistics

Last edited Tue Oct 22, 2019, 04:16 PM - Edit history (1)

This comment from you proves this:

"I'll ask you a question. If Biden's supporters included 14% left handed people and Bernie included 8%, will you conclude that left handed people favor Biden by 2:1?"

BZZZZZT Totally wrong interpretation of the statistics presented in the OP

The statics presented said that, as one example, Biden had 39% support among Democratic Black voters. That does not mean that 39% of all Biden supporters are Black voters. It's that simple.

Perhaps the concept of the demographic subgroups is escaping you? That seems to be the problem.

Your rewording in your question shows this:

"If Biden's supporters included 14% left handed people" is NOT equivalent to "If Biden's supporters included 14% of all the left handed people". The %'s in the OP refer to each demographic subgroup separately.

So, the next point was if the % support for each candidate within a given demographic subgroup comparable? Yes they are.

The total number of left handed people is known exactly. The margin of error for support among the left-handed subgroup is just dependent on the number of left-handed people in the poll.

That makes the subgroup percentages for each candidate directly comparable. That is why pollsters and data journalists bother to report the support among demographic subgroups in the first place.

Are they all wrong and only you are correct?

Please explain to us all why major polls tabulate the support that each candidate has in all the various demographic subgroups of their polls. The do it for ethnicity, age, income, education level... but now you say : "Wrong statistics One cannot divide the smaller subgroups this way and get a significant answer. "

So, again, all those pollsters are wrong and you are correct?

[bluewater]

33. lol excellent point! And great question!

Please explain to us all why major polls tabulate the support that each candidate has in all the various demographic subgroups of their polls. The do it for ethnicity, age, income, education level... but now you say : "Wrong statistics One cannot divide the smaller subgroups this way and get a significant answer. "

So, again, all those pollsters are wrong and you are correct?

[lapucelle]

39. Is your argument that the confidence level is weakened

when the original sample is broken down into subsets?

[bluewater]

43. He's arguing that each candidate has their own moe for their subgroup results.

If Biden is polling at 33% of a 1000 sample, that is 330 individuals. Now when you analyze the subgroups, the MOE is as applies to a sample of 330 not 1000.

When BS is polling at 15%, that is 150 individuals. The MOE for this group will be near 12% thus any meaningful conclusions impossible.

He's claiming that the support each candidate has in the poll individually affects the margin of error for each candidate's support among a given subgroup.

In reality, the margin of error for a candidate's support from a given subgroup is based on the total number of individuals in that subgroup.

I don't know why he finds that difficult to understand.

If there is a poll of 1000 people that has a subset of 300 Black voters, the margin of error for results showing who those Black voters support is based on the number of Black voters in the poll, 300. Candidates do not get different margins of error for this subgroup based on their total support in the poll as was asserted.

It's just like conducting a separate poll on those 300 voters, 300 would be the sample size in each case and that would be used to calculate the margin of error.

Of course, if a poll's sample size is small to start with, the sample size of the subgroups would be even smaller and could lead to much larger margins of error for a subgroup. THAT is an entirely different issue than claiming that the support each candidate has in the poll individually affects the margin of error for each candidate's support among a given subgroup.

[LexVegas]

17. Cool. He'll have no problem winning in the South this time then. nt

[NurseJackie]

19. Oh, you!

[ismnotwasm]

24. *snort*

[BlueMississippi]

26. Bazinga!

[Blue_Tires]

37. If Black folks love him so much, how did he get trounced the first time?

just askin'

[bluewater]

38. Simple, his support is balanced but not large enough.

This thread is about how ethnically balance Sanders' support actually is (Answer: very balanced), not about his chance to win the nomination.

I have repeatedly said, in this thread and elsewhere, that Sanders is trailing Warren and Biden and probably won't get the nomination.

Some people were claiming this was because his support was "too white", when in actuality, it's because his support just isn't large enough in any of the ethnic demographic groups.

pardon me if I follow the terms of service and don't re-fight past primaries.

[LiberalFighter]

41. Still doesn't help him.

[bluewater]

42. But it stops the silly smears. ;)

[Gothmog]

44. The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is

You can not win the Democratic nomination without significant African American voter support

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals.
Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll:
Whites

Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 15%

Non-Whites

Biden 42%
Sanders 16%
Warren 13%

That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot.
Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics.