Nate Silver on the primary polls:

[George II]

Link to tweet

[NurseJackie]

1. The BS Campaign is a lost cause.

[redstateblues]

2. I agree. But why would the ambitious AOC jump on a sinking ship. It doesn't make sense

[RainCaster]

6. She's a newby - she will make mistakes

How she recovers will tell us more about her character.

[Trenzalore]

9. She's not that astute

Respect for her for beating an establishment democratic incumbent by actually working while the incumbent twiddled his thumbs, she would never survive a competitive general election.

Many of her decisions over the past 2 years do not indicate someone who is going to end up a mainstream leader within the party.

[Peacetrain]

15. I don't think she did so well with the 2018 candidate picks either

She is very new at this.. and she is going with her heart and not with looking at the area and who actually lives there..

[George II]

16. She and her organization, Justice Democrats, did not do well with endorsements in 2018...

Of the 79 candidates endorsed only seven won. That's less than 9%!

[Peacetrain]

18. This happens to a lot of people at first... the passion that got them elected in their district

is not the same passion in other districts and assuming it is....

[George II]

14. Happy to be able to read this, Nurse Jackie.

[Cha]

3. Thank you, George!!

[Kurt V.]

4. Silver was right about one thing once. he been wrong about everything since. That's white privilege

[redqueen]

17. Yeah

I almost posted something similar.

Not exactly a bastion of reliable information there.

[Thekaspervote]

5. Nate Silver and 538 remain one of the best. No favs, just the facts..

[RainCaster]

10. The numbers may be accurate, but I don't agree with his interpretation

His prognosistication is nonsense IMO.

[George II]

8. The "tidbit" is contained in the tweet and it's link.

[ritapria]

11. Bernie campaign in Iowa

CBS You Guv Iowa Poll : Biden 22% Warren 22% Bernie 21% Buttigieg 14% The Selzer Poll has Bernie at 11% .. Nate Silver has conferred an almost God-like status to the Selzer Poll ...He won't tell you they totally screwed up the results on the GOP 2016 Caucus …...Trump was projected to win by 5 ….He lost to Cruz by 3% ...Rubio was projected to get 15% of the vote ….He received 23% ….Ann Selzer Projected the Democrat would win the Governors race in 2018 ….OOPS..... In Q3 Bernie received more than twice as much money to his campaign as his nearest rival , Mayor Pete, amongst Iowans who gave more than 200 dollars to their candidate in Q3 ………… Bernie drew the largest crowd of any candidate at the Iowa State Fair - larger than the crowd he drew at the Fair 4 years ago ...Not bad for a guy at 11% …...The Bernie campaign claim they have 25,000 Iowa volunteers ….. 25,000 votes translate to about 11% of projected Iowa 2020 Caucus vote …...Real world metrics don't match up with the Selzer Projection of Bernie receiving 11% of the Iowa Caucus vote …. It does lower expectations which is good for the campaign of Bernard Sanders …PS ……..Justin Trudeau will continue to be Canada's PM with a minority government

[George II]

12. Your last point, Justin Trudeau will remain Prime Minister! Great news.

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. K&R

[lapucelle]

19. Yes, but at least the tepid support is BALANCED across all ethnic demographics.

I wonder if Nate is impressed and in awe.