538: Who Democrats In Early-Primary States Don't Want To See Nominated

[bluewater]

...

Another candidate with a substantial number of detractors is … Biden. That’s right, even though he still sits near the top of the polls, he was the No. 1 candidate who likely Democratic voters said they did not want to see as the nominee (30 percent) in that Iowa State University/Civiqs poll. Likewise, in Masket’s August early-state activist survey, 31 percent (9 people) of those interviewed said they did not want to see Biden become the nominee. Granted, this was not anywhere close to the percentages who said they didn’t want Messam, Gabbard, or Sanders nominated, but it was still quite high given how many activists also said they were still considering Biden (34 percent, or 10 people).

It may be harder to think of Biden as a factional candidate than Sanders, given that Biden also enjoys significant support among a broad swath of demographic groups within the party, including a majority of African American voters. But he’s nonetheless facing a situation in which, if he did win, he might be a relatively controversial nominee who alienates some wings of the party or has trouble generating enthusiasm that can translate into voter turnout.

To be clear, this doesn’t mean Sanders and Biden are actively disliked by the party; both of them actually have high favorability ratings — 73 percent and 72 percent of Democrats had favorable opinions of Biden and Sanders, according to an average of national August polls by FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich. And if you look at Iowa surveys that also ask this question, Democrats have a fairly favorable view of both Biden and Sanders. But our question is different — we’re not asking whether respondents like a candidate; we’re asking who they don’t want to win the nomination. And while that question might capture some candidates who people dislike, it’s also entirely plausible that many Democrats like Biden and Sanders but still don’t want them to be the nominee.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-democrats-in-early-primary-states-dont-want-to-see-nominated/

[Demsrule86]

1. Well thank goodness, it is not up to those in early states and we will still have a chance to

nominate someone who can win...Biden. What a silly poll anyway.

[Indykatie]

2. Why Draw this Conclusion Based on IA and NH; States That Look Nothing Like the Dem Party?

Even worse, why draw this conclusion from a poll based on the choices of 9 activists? That's right 9.