Warren continues to lead in National Dem Primary Polls (Economist)

[bluewater]

Warren 26%, Biden 25%, Sanders 15%, Buttigieg 6%

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[crazytown]

1. Wot about HarrisX

and the platinum standard Morning Consult?

[bluewater]

8. Will 538 be doing a Primary Polls tracker themselves?

Will they use a simple, unweighted 5 point moving average filter as RCP POLLS does?

Or will their approach be more like The Economist's?

Will Nate include all his C+ rated HarrisX polls in his own tracker?

Time will tell.

lol

[Indykatie]

2. This is a BS Headline and Doesn't Match the Reality of Current Polling

Latest Polls posted at 538 show Biden leads of:
+9
+7
+1
+10
+8
+8
+2

Harris has polls posted with leads of +16 and +15 but Harris is only rated C+ by 538.

[bluewater]

7. So, we should just ignore The Economist's Primary Poll tracker?

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

That's their current state of the polling.

Both the RCP Polls tracker and The Economist's Primary Poll tracker are valuable tools to use when following the primary races.
Some people like to cherry pick which tracker they think is more accurate, but I think it's a good idea to consider both.

[Piiolo]

3. A whopping 1% lead

[MineralMan]

4. Grasping at straws once again, I see.

What's the MOE of that poll?

[bluewater]

6. You didn't read the OP, apparently. The link is to the The Economist's Primary Poll tracker.

It's posted in the identical format, on purpose, as another poster did for the RCP Polls tracker.

[MineralMan]

9. Oh, I read it, and recognized the copycat format.

I still think you're grasping at straws.

[bluewater]

11. lol when all else fails, you make it personal?

"I still think you're grasping at straws."

lack of content noted.

Why not stick to the issues instead of making ad hominem attacks?

[TidalWave46]

5. 36 Warren - 23 Biden ? 28 Warren - 18 Biden?

[Gothmog]

10. @JOEBIDEN LEADS IN 9 CONSECUTIVE POLLS

Link to tweet

[MineralMan]

12. Inconvenient, isn't it?

Headline: Biden Surges in Polls!

But, we don't write that kind of nonsense. We just post the numbers.

[bluewater]

13. But you ignore polling averages and cherry pick polls.... lol

But Biden's surge in the polls has him at 28.9 % average support at the beloved RCP POLLS tracker:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

THAT is less support than Joe had when he announced his run back on April 25th when he was at 29.3%

The trendline at RCP shows Joe yoyo-ing between 29% and 26% for months now.

[MineralMan]

14. LOL! Cherry pick polls...

You're funny.

[bluewater]

15. Lol RCP POLLS says Joe is below where he was when he started on April 25th...

But the RCP Polls average includes ALL those polls and more... and yet Joe is at 28.9% support... below where he started back on April 25th..

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

the trendline is what the trendline is

Joe continues to yoyo between 29% and 26% average support despite the cherry picking of recent polls.

let's ALL celebrate that!



Gotta love a fragile frontrunner, eh?

[MineralMan]

16. And yet, he is still the leader in the polls and has been

from the very beginning. Your outlier poll notwithstanding.

We can all see the polls, you know. We can all evaluate them just fine.

[bluewater]

18. Actually, he's been in a dead heat in the polls with Warren. You keep ignoring that.

This is the Economist's primary Poll tracker that you keep calling "a poll"

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

It's in a dead heat at the moment, with a 1% lead going back and forth between Warren and Biden.

The trendline gives a great picture about the state of the polling landscape.

I tell people to look at both trackers, RCP's and The Economist's, because they are both useful tools to examine the primary race.

Biden supporters seem to cherry pick which tracker they follow, only posting about the one most favorable for their preferred candidate, that being RCP.

[Gothmog]

19. I trust Nate on this

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

25. Is 538 going to have their own Primary Poll tracker?

I thought they had one last time.

It would be interesting to see which approach they take and which polls they would use.

[MineralMan]

20. I ignore nothing.

When was the last time I posted the results of an individual poll? I don't do that. I'm not interested in that. Today, there are new poll numbers. Tomorrow, there will be other new numbers. Meaningless, really.

You like to look at sources that favor Warren. Others like sources that favor Biden. Some even try to find hope in numbers for Bernie.

Here's the deal. It's not that long before people will be casting actual votes at their caucuses and primary elections. Lots of people. And each state where one of those is held sends a certain number of delegates to the convention next summer. That's the only polling that matters, really. When that begins, we can start discussing results that actually matter.

Until then, it's all just confirmation bias at work.

So, you won't find me posting poll results. They're interesting, but not that predictive.

[bluewater]

23. And yet here you are in a thread about polls...

Didn't you just post this is this very thread?

Inconvenient, isn't it?

Headline: Biden Surges in Polls!

But, we don't write that kind of nonsense. We just post the numbers.

So much for your claim:

I don't do that. I'm not interested in that. Today, there are new poll numbers. Tomorrow, there will be other new numbers. Meaningless, really.

You certainly seem interested when the polls are good for your preferred candidate.

[MineralMan]

24. As a DUer in good standing, I'm free to post whatever I wish

here, as long as I don't violate any rules. And so, I post as I please. So, here I am, indeed.

[bluewater]

26. Indeed.

[Gothmog]

33. Here are the latest RCP numbers

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

35. Biden is back up over Warren by almost 7 points in the RCP average.

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

34. This make me smile

Link to tweet

[Kahuna7]

17. Gaslight...Cough...Gaslight..

[honest.abe]

21. Looks like their math is off.. It should be Biden 27 and Warren 25 (rounded)

Here are the surveys and numbers that are listed on their site... the math is mine.

Candidte Biden Warren
Ipsos 24 17
SrvyUSA 32 22
YouGov 25 28
Quinn 27 30
PRRInst 25 16
Fox News 32 22
YouGov 25 28
Quinn 26 29
YouGov 23 36
All Total 239 228
Average 26.6 25.3

I ran the math in Excel. Please check and let me know if you get the same.

Also, even with this its still biased towards Warren in that they are adding YouGov results 3 times and Quinipiac 2 times both of which favor Warren.

They appear to have an agenda.

[Gothmog]

22. Here is the latest Economist poll

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

27. Yep, the Economist is a high quality poll that actually changes some ;)

That's a good poll for Joe.

the polls are what the polls are

Let's see if this poll moved The Economist's Primary Poll tracker:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

Yep, Biden now +1 at 25% to Warren at 24%.

[Gothmog]

32. Why is Warren doing poorly with moderate voters?

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

28. Three national polls with @JoeBiden leading by solid margins

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

29. SIXTH national poll after debate with BIDEN leading with average margin of 8.5%

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

30. So why did Biden go down at RCP POLLS compared to earlier in the week?

He's at 28.7% support now, that's less than the 29.3% he had back on April 25th when he announced too.

Is there something wrong with how RCP tracks polls? Serious Question.

[Gothmog]

31. RCP has been updated

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

36. Biden is back up over Warren by almost 7 points in the RCP average.

Link to tweet