*New* Univ North Florida (A- Rated) Florida Poll- Matchup vs Trump: Biden +5, Warren +3, Harris -3

[Skya Rhen]

Snip...

When Donald Trump is paired against Joe Biden, 43% of respondents indicated they would vote for Trump and 48% indicated a vote for Biden. When paired against Elizabeth Warren, Trump had 43% while Warren had 46%. Against Kamala Harris, 44% indicated a vote for Trump and 41% a vote for Harris. Lastly, Trump had 43% of the vote when paired against Pete Buttigieg, who had 42%.

“The head to head horserace questions for the 2020 election appear to reinforce two popular narratives,” Binder said. “First, this is going to be an extremely close race, as each potential matchup is within the margin of error. Second, Biden appears to have the best chance of beating Trump in Florida with a five-point lead. However, one of the contributors to the difference between the other candidates and Trump is the increased level of “don’t know” responses among Democrats when Warren, Harris and Buttigieg are on the ballot. I would expect those Democrats to come home come November, much like Republicans did in 2016 with Trump.”


Methodology

The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, Oct. 14, 2019, through Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019, by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. during the week and noon to 9 p.m. on the weekends with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File. The sample frame was comprised of registered Florida voters. Overall, there were 669 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 23% to 77%, with less than 1% unidentified. Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, age, race, sex and education. Education weights were created from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race and age weights were created from the Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File to match the active registered voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list.

https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/Recent_Polls.aspx

[Peacetrain]

1. These polls are starting to show us where the American mind is right now

[Kahuna7]

4. That's right. Ukraine-Gate Aside, Biden is the one who can deliver the most ECs. nt

[RobertDevereaux]

2. Strange that they paired four candidates-vs-OrangeGuy but omitted Bernie.

Checked the full report.

[Celerity]

5. you are correct, why did they leave Sanders out? I love Pete, but I am not going to say Pete is

above Bernie in most national polls, as he isn't.

[RobertDevereaux]

7. I'll drop Prof Binder email and let you know when I receive a reply...

"Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, is available for comment on all polls conducted by the Lab and can be reached via email at [e-mail]"

[Celerity]

8. +10000

[RobertDevereaux]

11. Here's his reply...strange logic, by my lights, but there you go...

> Robert,
> As with all polls, it's a balance between number of questions and length
> of survey. I made a call to include the top two candidates and then two
> others that may provide some interest to the public and are in
> potentially different positions - Buttigieg is rising and Harris has
> stalled. I think the real value of the data is that they are all pretty
> darn close in the head to head. We only polled Biden and Warren vs.
> Pence, again leaning on the top 2 as the cut point. If you're concerned
> that Sanders is left out, by that rationale any poll that leaves out
> Bennet, Booker or Steyer in a series of head to heads is just as
> problematic. Obviously this wasn't a Democratic primary poll, we'll be
> conducting one of those in SC in a couple weeks and that will include
> all the active Dem candidates.
>
> Thanks for keeping up with our work.
>
> Mike

[Celerity]

13. What a load of bollocks IMHO. Sanders has always been top

2 or 3 (top 2 for ages until Warren's surge) for the most part, with dozens of polls historically where he is at 15 to 25% and the pollster uses Bennet (often at zero) as one of the examples. Lolol.

I find the whole thing really strange. Oh well, not my poll, not my problem.

[Lunabell]

3. Cool

I'm voting blue. Biden is a good man and has my vote if he gets the nomination.

[redqueen]

6. Buttigieg -1

Not sure why they'd leave that out.

Weird that they included Harris and Buttigieg and left out Bernie.

[Celerity]

9. Buttigieg -1

it wasn't left out

When Donald Trump is paired against Joe Biden, 43% of respondents indicated they would vote for Trump and 48% indicated a vote for Biden. When paired against Elizabeth Warren, Trump had 43% while Warren had 46%. Against Kamala Harris, 44% indicated a vote for Trump and 41% a vote for Harris. Lastly, Trump had 43% of the vote when paired against Pete Buttigieg, who had 42%.

and yes, leaving Sanders out altogether is bizarre

[redqueen]

10. Oops missed that. nt

[RobertDevereaux]

12. See 11. above. The polster's reply to me about Bernie...

[Celerity]

14. Thanks!