Let's not write off Joe Biden just yet, OK?

[MineralMan]

In fact, he has led the polling averages since the very beginning, never losing the lead, since before he even declared his candidacy. It has become fairly common for people to ignore that fact in their posts here.

National polling of the primary race, really, is sort of ridiculous anyhow, since the nominee will be the one with the most delegates at the Democratic Nominating Convention next Summer. Each state has its specific number of delegates to be awarded, with the more populous and Democrat heavy states getting far more delegates than states like Iowa. Iowa gets a lot of publicity and media reporting because its the first state to hold a caucus or primary, but its total delegate count is quite low, compared to, say, California, where Biden enjoys a sizable lead in the polling.

The national polls being taken now will have very little relevance when it comes to the delegate count. Really, the most important date to watch in 2020 will be March 3, when a number of states with the largest delegate counts of all will hold their primaries. It will be on March 4 that we will have our first preview of who the nominee will be.

National polling at this early stage isn't indicative of anything about delegate counts, really.

Anyhow, Joe Biden is in the lead in the average of national polling, and has been since that polling first started. Never once has he dropped out of the lead. Keep that in mind as you enjoy the discussion here in the Democratic Primary forum on DU.

[EveHammond13]

1. Cognitive science controls voting decisions --- not facts, not reason

We progressives think everyone thinks like us - facts rule the day, the best qualified, fairest, most lawful, most prepared, smartest person should be president.

But that's not how people vote. They vote on gut, on identity politics, on racial and sexual bias.

This is the one big thing that keeps me from switching to Warren. I'm sorry to say it but I think our electorate is in Idiocracy mode right now. We can't expect too much from them. It's not there right now.

[ritapria]

3. That's a Powerful Statement

I'm mightily Impressed ..You are damn smart

[EveHammond13]

4. I've read a lot of Lakoff. I think he's right. That's straight from his theories.

[MineralMan]

5. That's true for most voters, to be sure, but not all.

Some calculate who gets their vote very carefully, but not most. And then there are the Trump voters, who vote with the brain in their ass, instead of the one in their head. There's no accounting for those.

[EveHammond13]

7. I agree. People on DU especially will vote on facts and policies.

But we are living in the age of the low-information voter, by and large.

I really think the only thing to fix this is mandatory, high-quality civics classes for young people plus a side of critical thinking/gaslighting awareness training.

[MineralMan]

10. Yes, civics and critical thinking should be taught at all grade levels in

all schools. Sadly, that's very unlikely to happen.

[emmaverybo]

51. I think Biden is the best prepared and most qualified--far and away. I also agree that you

should vote your heart in the primary. Don’t worry about what the neighbors think. If you love Warren, support her!

[Bettie]

58. So, you are saying that Biden will win

because people are inherently biased toward old, white men as authority figures?

Doesn't bode well for our future as a nation.

[EveHammond13]

59. can't argue with you but just look at our country. look at the man-on-the-street interviews.

it's not good.

[emmaverybo]

79. Maybe they look for proven abilities, the most experienced, foreign policy chops, the old white guy

who was our extremely productive, accomplished VP for eight years. His resume is unmatched by any other candidate. He is also well-respected and loved plus has following with most important voters in our base, black voters.

[Celerity]

2. I think he is the clear front-runner again (for now) nt

[MineralMan]

6. Well, he's still leading the polling.

So far, I haven't looked at state-by-state polling to see how the delegate count looks. He's well ahead in California, though, which means a nice bloc of votes will go to him.

Also, the 15% rule means that anyone getting less than 15% of the vote in a primary gets no delegates at all. Instead, they are proportionately divided among those who got 15% or more. That is going to be a big factor with this many candidates in the primaries.

But, it's still too early to start counting delegates, and those who do so are on a fool's errand, really.

[EveHammond13]

8. Biden could very well lose Iowa and NH, and then I don't know what happens.

[MineralMan]

11. I think the importance of those two states is overrated.

And then, there's South Carolina. And Nevada. But, with the massive delegate count from Super Tuesday primaries just around the corner, I think people are not going to be swayed as much by Iowa and NH as in past years. That's my take on that, anyhow.

[Thekaspervote]

13. He could, Sanders is way up in NH, but Biden is now +1 in IA according to Suffolk out yesterday

It’s not much, but he was behind in IA. Seems he suddenly he has the momentum in the polls again.

SC is next and Biden has a 20+ lead over Warren and sanders.

[malchickiwick]

27. Not to nit-pick, but we caucus in NV before the SC primary this year.

The NV caucus is set for Feb. 22, with SC primary a week later, Feb 29, just four days ahead of super Tuesday.

And that makes us the first state in the country with a fairly representational population.

[MineralMan]

32. And how many delegates does Nevada send to the convention?

[emmaverybo]

53. You definitely should not support Biden. Your heart isn't there. Warren's chances are good. I would

urge you to switch.

[Demsrule86]

63. Those states will be split and small white states that have in the past been significant...IMHO

are no longer relevant to a candidate's chances. Times change...look what happens on super Tuesday...it my opinion that at the end of this period...Biden will have what will prove and insurmountable lead...he will also sweep the mid west and the the west...he may win California or not...but he will do well enough that it won't hurt him. Warren is limited to the North Eastern states and Iowa.

[Crowman]

9. Biden is favorite (barely) for nomination, he can't win in the general.

Warren still way out in front in the gambling on politics site, where bad opinions will cost you money.
The thinking is that Trump will overshadow Biden in the debates, bully him, Joe does not think fast.

Trump can't bully Warren, he wouldn't get away with that like he did with Hillary Clinton. Warren can be nice and even charming even when under immediate direct and unfair attack.Hillary was never able to pull that off. Warren is quick minded too, sharp as a tack. As was Hillary. Biden is not.

[MineralMan]

12. So, please give me a reason to take your assessment seriously.

I believe you are badly mistaken, actually, and I have nothing to base any assessment of your predictive capabilities on.

But, thanks for your opinion. You are welcome to it.

However, he can beat Trump. With your help, of course, and your vote. I'm sure you'll be voting for the Democratic nominee, right?

[Sapient Donkey]

71. I think there might be some validity to concerns of Biden in the general

From what I've seen, there is a very vocal group who seem to dislikes Biden because they don't see him as being different than Clinton or Obama. The comparison sounds great to me, and probably to most of the current people here on DU. However, many of those people didn't vote for Clinton in 2016 because of their dislike for Clinton (and to some extent even Obama) They aren't seen as being far enough to the left. Ya know? So, I do see the concern of a repeat of 2016. I would like to think that many of them learned their lessons after getting Trump, but they seem to be back at it again this election.

On the other hand, I don't like the idea of giving into people who are essentially having a temper tantrum and throwing the game board because they are not winning. Not to mention the fact that it's not just Biden who has this issue. I've seen many of the same people say similar things about Warren. I read something today with a bunch of people attacking Warren for being a "racist capitalist". Not sure if those are all real people, but at least some of them looked legit. Even Harris and Mayor Pete have received similar attacks on them.

So yeah. I can see the concern, but I don't think the problem is the candidates themselves, but rather the fact there seems to be a large block of left-of-center voters who seem perfectly content with watching the country burn because they are not getting 100% of what they want.

[Thekaspervote]

16. Biden does the best in head to head match ups against dotard- in state and Ntl polls. Warren doesn't

Do nearly as well in those same polls.

So, not sure where you are getting your info.

Current EC maps:
Biden 318 trump 142
Sanders 278 trump 153
Warren 223 trump 143 there’s a lot of toss ups in warren’s column at this point

If Biden is the nominee TX, AZ are both in play. Not so with sanders or warren

It’s just my opinion, but Biden will have no problem taking on dotard. Hillary didn’t either, dotard tried bullying her but, it was obvious the only one on the stage that was rattled was him!

[thesquanderer]

22. Although I think you make good points, I don't agree that Biden can't win the general.

I'm not certain that he would, but I absolutely think he can.

I do worry about his debate performance, as I've alluded to in the past. He has trouble making his points clearly and concisely. And the pressure will be on, and he will be nearly another year older, so it's not going to get any easier.

Also, with the rate of craziness coming out of the news these days, I'm not 100% certain that Trump is who he'll be facing in the debates. I think Biden might have an even tougher time against, say, Romney.

But as far as the OP goes, I think it's silly for anyone to be writing Biden off. He's still in first place in most metrics.

[Demsrule86]

39. That is completely untrue...Hillary was sharp as a tack and Trump wants to run against Warren.

Biden is the same as he always was...but you all are attempting to pump Warren up while bringing Biden down...not a good strategy.

[Demsrule86]

55. Warren won't win the primary IMHO and that is good she will not win a general despite having my

vote and most Democrats.

[Gothmog]

61. How can Warren win without support from moderate voters?

Link to tweet

[Hortensis]

14. Oh, come on, MM. Reality starts weighing in only 104 days from now.

What are people supposed to do until then? NOT believe the blizzard of hostile propaganda trying to take out the Democrat who's been the frontrunner since well before he announced?

[MineralMan]

15. Well, what I'm going to do is point out reality along the way

until then. People who are trying to cast Joe Biden as a loser, when he is leading the polling, aren't going to escape my notice, nor my comments. I saw plenty of that in 2016, and am not going to just watch it silently this year. I didn't then, either.

Joe Biden leads the polling. And, if you look at states with large convention delegations, he's leading the delegate count by an even larger margin. Of course, nobody's counting delegates yet, but Biden is +20 in South Carolina, I just saw, and is leading in California in a pretty decent way, too, right now.

The reason nobody's talking about delegate counts at the same time they're trying to cast out Joe Biden as the leader is that the numbers are inconvenient for those folks. Iowa gets a nod for being the first state to vote, but they don't really have that many delegates at the convention, and nobody will get them all. If the race is close, so will be the delegate count among those who manage to get 15% or more of the caucus vote there. So, Iowa's likely to be a wash for the two people who come in first and second there.

South Carolina, on the other hand, seems to be ignored by those who wish Joe Biden would go away. Why is that, I wonder?

[Hortensis]

17. :) +1. You go, MM!

[MineralMan]

20. I'm always here. I plan to keep going.

My goal, as always, is to elect a Democrat as President in 2020. That's really my only goal. I favor Joe Biden, because I think he'd win handily next November. But, if he doesn't get the nomination, I'll be solidly behind the candidate who does, as always.

I can make that statement, because that is what I have always done, since my first Presidential election in 1968, back before 18-year-olds could vote. I have always fully supported the Democratic nominee, whether that person was my favorite earlier or not. that candidate hasn't always won, of course. In fact, in 1968, I was bitterly disappointed.

While I might be partisan when it comes to the primary elections, it's only because I want the strongest possible candidate as our nominee. I'm not going to run down any of the other candidates who have a chance at the nomination. That would be stupid and work against my ultimate goal. I'm always surprised to see people do that. But, it happens.

[Thekaspervote]

18. What??? you mean you don't like magic beads and fairy dust??!! Or unicorns?

[MineralMan]

21. I might like those things if I ever encountered them.

They sound nice. However, I've never seen any magic beads, fairy dust, or unicorns. I'm sure I would like them, though, if they existed.

[ismnotwasm]

19. I fully expect him to win the nomination

Despite the fact he is not my first or even second choice.

[MineralMan]

23. My favorite in primaries doesn't always get the nomination.

I just and vote for the nominee, who gets my full support.

It's easy, really.

[ismnotwasm]

26. Yup

[Demsrule86]

38. Vote Blue no matter who.

[Gothmog]

42. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

24. NEW POLL: Biden leads Warren by 15 points in California

Link to tweet

[MineralMan]

25. Yes. I saw that earlier. How many delegates does California send

to the convention? Iowa? New Hampshire?

Hmm...

[blm]

28. Premature to write off any of the top 8, IMO.

[MineralMan]

33. Well, I think that's being generous.

I'd cut that number down to just four, for now.

[blm]

34. Heheh ... true .... but, I am committed to being fair and

welcoming as part of the process of democracy.

[MineralMan]

35. Well, anyone can run who meets the requirements.

However, getting chosen as the nominee is somewhat more difficult...

[Gothmog]

29. There is no need to write off Joe

Link to tweet

[peggysue2]

30. Numbers that are hard to argue over, I'd say

However, there will be some who will argue anyway.

Wait for it!

Keep beating that drum, Joe.

[MineralMan]

31. Exactly. No need at all.

And yet...

[Gothmog]

41. From Nate

Link to tweet

[Kahuna7]

36. Trump may have done him a favor with his cash for dirt scheme. He threw

his worst at Biden. Biden's still standing and trump is barely hanging on.

[Demsrule86]

37. Thanks MM! Wishful thinking going on here and in the media ...also with some pollsters.

However, I have been thinking with the media and some pollsters solidly behind Warren, why isn't she way ahead? She has faced little vetting. While Harris, Biden, Sanders have been attacked non-stop.

[CTyankee]

44. not sure what you mean by "vetting"?

I talk with my fellow CT Dems and hear the same ting over and over: "She can't win in the midwest." I don't know where this comes from in their minds. She speaks about the issues that people want to hear about, that matter in their lives. She has no "East coast" sounding accent, if anything she has that Oklahoma twang every now and then. She is unadorned physically.

Her big problem now, which she is now grappling with, is the whole MFA/single payer conundrum. It's a big task but she's a big girl and is not shrinking from it.

For the life of me, I don't get what she'll do to turn off midwesterners!

[Demsrule86]

62. That is not vetting . she can't win in the mid west and I believe no women will win this year.

I wish it wasn't so. Vetting is when you examine her record and policy proposals. You see a tiny bit with MFA...but she has had mostly favorable exposure thus far. That will not last. She has not faced vetting as she is the preferred candidate for the media and some pollsters. Biden, on the other hand has been excoriated and is still in first place. I believe he can win the states we need...I do not believe Warren will win Wisconsin nor the other states we need. But that is not vetting. I forgot to add her personal life and all of her children and husbands personal life will be examined as well by the GOP...None of that has happened.

[CTyankee]

65. Buy WHY can't she win in the midwest? I didn't get that from your answer.

I'm not trying to be difficult but what do we know so far that will prevent her from winning in the midwest and not prevent, say, Joe Biden (who is also from the east coast)?

My husband is from Wisconsin and we had a vacation home in Door County for years. I don't know why the working class union members in Milwaukee and the "elites" from Madison's UW community wouldn't be happy to vote for her. We still have very liberal friends and relatives from Madison and they like her. (Hubby says to me just now: "If Tammy Baldwin can win...&quot

As for her personal life and children, I can't believe there are any problems that haven't already surfaced. Unlike the Clintons and godawful Trumps.

I think she has been far and away the most open candidate so far to any amount of vetting.

[jcgoldie]

68. Forget it

You are replying to perhaps DU's foremost expert on all things "Midwest"... who has informed me that my state of Illinois is not even part of the Midwest... almost NO-ONE else knows that.

[Demsrule86]

73. Sorry, I should have been more clear. Her policies are way too left for the moderate to conservative

Mid West. She will be viewed as East Coast and won't connect with folks here. I would of course support her or any Democrat. But she won't win. If Biden runs, we will likely take Ohio and Pennsylvania thus blocking Trump. We need three states...PA, WI and MA. I believe it will come down to Wisconsin...I lived there and if you look at the state, she won't win this state. I like and support Biden, but my goal is to remove Trump.

Also her plan for manufacturing is a non-starter...more trade agreements where foreign workers get paid more and environmental standards are raised will never be enforced globally and jobs will be lost...we have heard this before...it is one of the reasons Trump won (having lived in CT, I knew Trump was a racist pig and I always vote Democratic)...people want a manufacturing plan...and we could get one...use green energy but not globally...how about sending help to the Mid West which needs good jobs- with targeted tax cuts and low interest loans for people who start businesses? I was very disappointed hearing Warren's plan...same old same old. It won't work here politically.

[CTyankee]

80. I like your ideas re targetted tax cuts and low interest loans for business starters but haven't we

heard this before from practically all the Dems who've announced? I'll bet we'll hear more about them and be more centered on them in our Nov. 30th debate. I sure hope so.

I will look more closely at Warren's economic recovery plan and thanks for your excellent analysis!

[jcgoldie]

67. "I believe no women will win this year"

PACK IT UP LADIES! It's all over! You read it first right here on DU!

[emmaverybo]

82. I don't think the fact that a woman will have perhaps a harder time being accepted as a potential

commander-in-chief due to sexism per se, more about American political tradition. It will take an extraordinary woman of great qualifications, charisma, and likability to break through. Hillary came close—might have won, in fact.

I don’t see Warren as being near Hillary in qualifications or the je ne sais quois factor. Hillary has a breadth of intellect Warren doesn’t. Warren is living in a smaller wheelhouse, one particularly appealing to progressives at this time, admittedly, as her focus on domestic economic policy parallels theirs. She’s speaking to their issues and ideology.

Hillary, however, was/is engaged and experienced in such a wider range of issues, including foreign policy. And Hillary had a relationship with POC communities.

Not saying Warren can’t grow.

[kcr]

64. I know where this comes from

I want to say first that I live in CT and I love it here. But I've lived in many places in this country, so I'm used to the acclamation when you move to a different region. Moving to the South was especially educational. However, I wasn't quite expecting the, "You're from a Different Planet" vibe I got from the TN to CT move.

[CTyankee]

66. Maybe I'm immunized somewhat from that...

I am a 3rd generation Texan, born and raised in Dallas. I shut that shit down fast.

[kcr]

69. But you must have noticed it. Or maybe it's the area I moved to.

It is considered the NYC metro area, so maybe there's a little of that center of the world thing going on. But, for instance, when I first moved to TN, it would be, "You're not from around here, are you" as soon as I would speak, and that would be it. But here, it was questions about what TN is like as if it's a 3rd world country. And I came from a major metro area.

[CTyankee]

70. Maybe it's because I live in New Haven with so many different people from different backgrounds

and accents that I don't see that.

But I don't get out a lot...

[redstateblues]

77. It's hurt her that it's taken so long to come up

with a way to pay for her expansive plans.

[CTyankee]

81. Stay tuned! I think we can both look forward to the Nov. debate for some interesting

details on these plans, not just Warren's but other candidates as well.I can't believe they have not heard some of the excellent ideas put forward here on DU.

[Gothmog]

50. Joe Biden sees a major jump in the polls putting him ahead of Elizabeth Warren

Link to tweet

[redqueen]

74. That tweet links to a poll about Trump ?

Any chance there's a good link available?

[Gothmog]

40. For this thread

Link to tweet

[redqueen]

43. Who's writing him off?

The thing is, at this point, most people are barely even paying attention.

We will see how the ground shifts after the early states start voting. Until then, all this polling is interesting, but not really too useful.

If you're talking to voters - doing phone banking, text banking, etc - then you've doubtless noticed for yourself how soft a lot of this support is.

[treestar]

45. And the delegates are not on a winner take all basis

So who "wins" a state isn't as relevant as in the General. Winning a state by a larger margin will result in more delegates than just coming in first.

[MineralMan]

46. Yes, and there's that 15% rule. If a candidate gets less than 15% of the vote

that candidate gets no delegates at all. Instead delegates are assigned proportionally to candidates who got 15% or more of the votes. With a large primary field, that can mean that a candidate with 35% of the vote ends up with over 50% of the delegates.

I keep mentioning that, because it's going to come into play in more than one state's primary election. Many people will be surprised to learn that, after the fact.

[Gothmog]

48. The 15% rule will also help Biden

[Gothmog]

47. Three national polls with @JoeBiden leading by solid margins

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

49. SIXTH national poll after debate with BIDEN leading with average margin of 8.5%

Link to tweet

[Yeehah]

52. Who's writing him off?

Nobody I know.

[redstateblues]

78. Lots of MSNBC talking heads

[Yeehah]

84. Oh. I don't watch that garbage.

I recommend the same to everybody.

[Kurt V.]

54. biden obviously has a ceiling in polls and fundraising. but I'm definitely not writing him off

[Desert grandma]

56. He is also leading in Wisconsin

The A rated Marquette Poll polling in Wisconsin results: Biden 31% Warren 24% Sanders 17% Buttigieg 7%

Wisconsin is one of the states we lost to the Orange Buffoon in 2016. We MUST win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. I think that current polling shows Joe to be the strongest candidate in these states. Can he beat Trump? Absolutely. People are looking for an alternative to the squatter in the White House. Joe is likable, competent and can reverse the damage that has been done to our standing in the world. Foreign policy is his strength. Actually I think he is the best candidate of ours to beat 45. That's why Trump is so afraid of him, and trying his best to bash him. I will vote for the Democratic candidate, no matter who, but I really believe that Biden is the one who can beat him.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

57. Okay, we can wait a lil while longer!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Gothmog]

60. Biden is dominating with moderate voters

Link to tweet

[chillfactor]

76. I don't intend to.....

despite some of the negatives DUers post here about Biden...I believe he will be our nominee.

[customerserviceguy]

83. He's going to have to

give better debate performances. "Word salad" isn't going to cut it once the field is winnowed down to about four or five people. At that point, he'll get proportionally more speaking time, and the gaffes will be even more noticeable.

Bernie managed to pull off a pretty convincing performance at the last debate which mitigated the political damage from his heart attack, and his raspy delivery at the previous debate. So, yes, let's not write Joe Biden off, I'm with you there.

[Gothmog]

85. This polling makes me smile

Link to tweet

?s=20