Joe Biden is tied for first place in Iowa

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

[Funtatlaguy]

1. Why do you assume that the majority here favors Biden.

I’m not sure that is the case.
Not all of us find it “awesome” whenever he leads in polls.
I like Joe and will back him as nominee.
Even though I back Warren, I don’t come here saying anything positive about her is awesome.
I respect the views and preferences of all on this site and all of our candidates.

[Dem4Life1102]

6. The OP didn't assume anything

Just posted some positive news about the candidate they support, which everyone else here does on a daily basis.

[Funtatlaguy]

7. Nope. There was editorial in the quoted material not just a link of a poll.

[Dem4Life1102]

10. That doesn't assume what you alleged

And again that is what supporters of every other candidate are doing.

[Funtatlaguy]

12. We will have to agree to disagree. Have a nice day.

[Dem4Life1102]

18. Nice dodge

But nowhere does the OP state or assume that a majority of DU supports Biden.

[TwilightZone]

16. That's a rather odd assertion.

There's nothing in the linked tweet that has anything to do with your assertion. Nowhere did the OP or the tweet say anything about Biden being supported by a majority on DU or anywhere, for that matter.

[Demsrule86]

39. And?

[honest.abe]

20. You are confused. The "awesome" quote is from some dude on Twitter.

Regardless what is wrong with showing positive emotion when someone's preferred candidate does well in a poll??

[Sloumeau]

22. At no point did I see any evidence that the OP assumed that everyone coming to DU was a Biden...

supporter. In addition, just because someone posts a link to an editorial does not mean that the person posting that link automatically believes every word in that editorial.

[highplainsdem]

23. What a strange complaint. Have you also complained when other Warren supporters here have

posted poll news that shows her doing well and also quoted anyone happy about the news?

[LanternWaste]

29. First day on the internet, huh?

[Demsrule86]

38. Dont read posts about Biden if they offend you so much. Poster has

A right to post as she chooses. Some of us do support Biden and not Warren except in a general of course.

[George II]

2. So if it remains like this, these four candidates will essentially split the 41 delegates....

....roughly 10 delegates each.

[still_one]

8. Exactly George, and if that happens Iowa will be much ado about nothing

[George II]

14. Yes, and even if the delegates of NH are split among 2 or 3 candidates, we'll go to Nevada....

... a state much more representative of America's population, with a two or three way tie with no one having more than about 20 delegates.

[Indykatie]

25. I'm With Biden But I Will Be Thrilled With An Outcome that Diminishes the IA Caucus Impact

I know I sound like a broken record but a candidate who wins or places 2nd in IA and NH but can't muster a decent showing in SC will have a have a very slim chance of winning the nomination. Wins in IA and NH will be for naught if the candidate doesn't have strong support in the AA community. What will the media narrative on candidates who don't reach the 15% threshold required to earn delegates in SC but did well or won in IA and NH?

[still_one]

26. I agree

[ritapria]

3. Those are the Results of the CBS News Poll released November 18

[getagrip_already]

4. that screen shot shows the bus tour.....

Why would cbs use a nov poll in december?

Edit: Because that's one of the latest polls available. there are none from december.

[TwilightZone]

9. It is a November poll.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/13afQpotpd1MwwjjjoegtFv-tRtQ6tQbO/view

[getagrip_already]

13. it is also the most current rated poll....

according to fivethiryeight.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/

It seems polling was put on hold for the holidays. Nothing much has come out since then.

[oasis]

5. Up, up and away.

[LeftTurn3623]

11. this really blows

The only chance Pete has ... is to win Iowa and NH.

Looks like we are stuck with Joe

The good news is Joe might help us win the Senate.

[getagrip_already]

15. it's just one poll.... He is still in lead

fivethirty eight has the following based on the average of polls:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-leading-the-democratic-primary-in-the-first-four-states/



Buttigieg leads close races in Iowa and New Hampshire
Polling averages in Iowa and New Hampshire over the past six weeks for candidates who qualified for the November debate and are still running

(a lot of data in a table that wouldn't copy)

Buttigieg’s rise in Iowa and New Hampshire, which we started to see signs of in September and October, has now created a four-way race at the top of the polls in these states. So what’s helped catapult him into the lead? Although there isn’t evidence that rigid ideological “lanes” have developed in the primary so far, Buttigieg’s budding support from centrist and center-left Democrats probably has helped him rise to the top in Iowa and New Hampshire. And there’s evidence that it has come at the expense of Warren and Biden. In Monmouth University’s early November survey of likely Iowa caucusgoers, for instance, Buttigieg was tied with Biden for the lead among moderate or conservative Democrats (each with 26 percent) while also leading among somewhat liberal Democrats with 23 percent, ahead of Warren’s 20 percent. And in a late November survey of New Hampshire from the Boston Globe and Suffolk University, Buttigieg edged out Biden 17 percent to 16 percent among moderate Democratic primary voters; Buttigieg trailed among liberal voters but still attracted 12 percent of them to Warren’s 23 percent and Sanders’s 24 percent.

[honest.abe]

21. What an odd comment.

You seem to acknowledge Joe will be the better candidate in the general yet you say it "blows" and "we are stuck with Joe".

[LeftTurn3623]

30. well I rather see a new fresh face with new ideas

that can relate to 18 year olds as well as people 55 & older

or someone like Warren or Sanders who would have major change in the white house

Sorry. Biden is just kind of boring but I do think because of his name he would get more votes and help carry senate seats better. And he is more of a moderate.

But that doesn't mean the others cant win also. Just might be a little tighter election

[honest.abe]

34. Any Democrat would usher in major change in the current WH.

The biggest issue of course is ensuring we have "any Democrat" in the WH. Biden is our best bet to do that.

Warren and Sanders are much too risky in the general.

Biden is "boring" only to those who dont see the big picture.

[Kahuna7]

17. How they howled with gleeful derision at his use of the old fashioned term, 'Malarkey.'

[Cha]

33. They thought they had something..

anything that sticks, right? Well.. boohoo.. it didn't stick.

Kahuna

[Indykatie]

19. Maybe the Media Will Stop Acting Like the IA Caucus is The End All Be All With Basically a 4 Way Tie

I don't think we will see the first real evidence of who is in a position to win the nomination until SC votes 3/4 weeks after IA and NH.

[Sloumeau]

24. Gothmog, there are more recent Iowa polls at both fivethirtyeight.com...

and RealClearPolitics.com that show Buttigieg in the lead:

538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/

RealClearPolitics.com:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

I think your posting might be a bit misleading.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

27. Remember, this is caucusing

If it works like it did in Nebraska, as the lower ranked candidates are eliminated, their backers get asked to pick from who is left. I think it's fair to say that, for example, if Warren gets eliminated at a caucus, her followers will largely go to Sanders - maybe Mayor Pete, maybe Yang - not Joe.

I don't see Iowa or New Hampshire setting up well for Joe. However, South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states should do well for him.

[honest.abe]

28. Why would "Warren get eliminated at a caucus" ??

Not sure I understand that comment.

[Gothmog]

32. If a candidate during a caucus does not achieve 15% threshold then voters can go to other candidates

If Warren or another candidate does not meet 15% threshold in that caucus, then the voters for that candidate are allowed to go to other candidates. No one gets any delegates unless they met 15% threshold

[honest.abe]

35. Thank you for the explanation but I doubt Warren would drop below 15%.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

37. Thanks. You said it 100 x better than I did.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

36. OK, I'm working under the assumption it works like Nebraska

In Nebraska, we went to a Union hall, and were assigned rooms based on Voting Precinct, IIRC. Then the Sanders supporters got on one side of the room; the HRC supporters got on the other side of the room; and a small group in the middle were undecided/committed to smaller candidates (like Martin O'Malley). So each faction had a leader that got up and made their pitch. Then a round of voting was held in which everyone was given a chance to change sides. Then the undecided/O'Malley/other supporters were basically told to pick a side with one of the remaining viable candidates, and another round of voting was held.

Maybe it doesn't work that way in Iowa. I personally think caucusing is weird, and I'm happy we aren't doing it this time.

[Gothmog]

31. These polling results make me smile

Link to tweet