Biden, Sanders, Warren Tied in California Poll

[left-of-center2012]

December 11, 2019, 7:57 AM MST
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-11/bloomberg-to-give-10-million-to-help-democrats-campaign-update?srnd=politics-vp

Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are running neck-and-neck for the top spot in California, according to a poll from CNN and SSRS released Wednesday.

The poll found Biden with 21% support in the state, followed by Sanders with 20% and Warren with 17%. All three were within the margin of error of 5.2 percentage points. Pete Buttigieg was in fourth with 9% ...

The poll diverged from one released last week by the Los Angeles Times that showed Sanders leading with 24%, Warren with 22%, Biden with 14% and Buttigieg with 12%. The LA Times survey was conducted before Kamala Harris dropped out of the race.

[Mike Nelson]

1. The state is up for grabs...

... the early state winners will get "bumped" up by media coverage.

[The Valley Below]

2. This Californian doesn't see Sanders making advances here.

He's burned too many bridges with active Democrats IMO. Especially with those who voted for him in the CA primary, but who happily supported HRC in the General. I've been stunned by the degree of anger I heard expressed towards him from former supporters.

Many of these folks might support Warren (a pretty natural fit), but if she fades I think it will be Biden (and perhaps Buttigiege) who gain. Not Sanders.

He has a base of support. But I don't see it growing. Or that he can win back people who were enthusiastic about voting for HRC in the General after voting for Sanders in the Primary. There is real disaffection (anger and rage) that he can't overcome IMO.

[Blue_true]

4. He was reluctant to help Hillary win the General.

His recent recollection of the party platform effort is also off, his people created a bad atmosphere in Miami, then took that to the convention in Philadelphia. I honestly can't forgive him for not wholeheartedly backing Hillary once the nomination was decided by democratic primary voters.

[The Valley Below]

5. There is very bad blood here among active Democrats.

The people who donate, volunteer, and who always vote Democratic. And especially among party loyalists who took the chance and voted for him.

Those people feel burned. He will never overcome this problem IMO. He has a ceiling of support that's far short of a win.

[ritapria]

6. Results from CNN CA. Poll

Which candidate can best handle Health Care ? Bernie 28% Biden 20% Warren 17% Buttigieg 7% . The Climate Crisis: Bernie 28% Biden 18% Warren 17% Buttigieg 6% . If Bernie sweeps the first three states and makes a respectable showing in SC ( a single digit loss) , CA is in the bag .

[The Valley Below]

7. All I can do is report honestly what I see in my little corner of America.

Here in Los Angeles among active, educated Democrats--including people who voted for Bernie in 2016--there is a lot of anger toward the man. The is no way he get's these voters back, in my estimation.

[corbettkroehler]

8. CA Young Dems Sure Helped Sanders Advance

Last month, they endorsed him by a landslide. The final numbers were

Bernie Sanders – 84 (66.67%)
Elizabeth Warren – 29 (23.02%)
Kamala Harris – 6 (4.76%)
Julian Castro – 3 (2.38%)
Cory Booker – 1 (0.79%)
Pete Buttigieg – 1 (0.79%)

“No Endorsement” received two votes.

[full coverage here]

And CNN just reported Sanders within the margin of error of first place in California among Latino voters based on last week's polling.

Link to tweet

[boomer_wv]

3. Don't overlook

Some Harris surrogates coming over to endorse Biden lately. That's not an accident and likely was done with her in the discussion. I'm not sure that Harris has a great shot at VP, but I think she's going to toss in with Biden and look for some appointment.

She might keep her powder dry for now...but if Biden does well in Iowa I think you are going to see Harris jump in for him and help him win California.